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Economic Review – April 2025

Economic Review – April 2025

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Download Your Copy Here:

 

SFFS Economic Review_Apr 25

 

Key takeaways

 

  • The UK economy grew 0.5% in February, driven by strong service and manufacturing sectors despite looming headwinds
  • Inflation dipped to 2.6% in March, but April’s household bill hikes are expected to reverse the trend
  • The labour market weakened as vacancies fell, though wage growth remained robust amid cost pressures and job cuts

 

 

UK economy returns to growth

 

 

Data released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed economic growth was stronger than expected in February, although more recent survey evidence suggests this pick-up may prove short-lived as economic headwinds threaten growth prospects.

 

According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics, economic output rose by 0.5% in February, the fastest rate of expansion in 11 months. This figure was higher than all forecasts submitted to a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a monthly rise of just 0.1%.

 

ONS said this stronger-than-expected performance partly reflected robust service sector growth, with computer programming, telecoms and car dealerships all performing well during February. In addition, ONS noted that manufacturing, electronics and pharmaceutical businesses all enjoyed a strong month.

 

Separately released trade figures for February also showed goods exports to the US hit their highest monthly level since November 2022. Analysts suggested the jump was a clear sign of firms trying to beat the imposition of President Trump’s tariffs.

 

Survey data, however, shows that those tariffs are now having a detrimental impact on business activity. Last month’s preliminary headline growth indicator from the closely monitored S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), for instance, fell to a 29-month low of 48.2 in April, down from 51.5 in March. This left the index significantly below the 50.0 threshold, denoting a contraction in private sector output.

 

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The disappointing survey reflects the impact of headwinds from both home and abroad. The biggest concern lies in a slump in exports amid weakened global demand and rising global trade worries, but higher staffing costs have also piled pressure on companies – linked to the National Insurance and minimum wage changes that came into effect at the start of April.”

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Utility Warehouse

Utility Warehouse

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💡 Are you overpaying on your household bills?

 

We’re excited to offer our clients a free bill review in partnership with UW and our UW partner, Sophie Williams. This is a great opportunity to check if you’re on the best deal and see how much you could save.

 

✅ Potential savings: On average, customers can save up to £400 per year in cashback alone.

✅ Lower energy bills: In today’s climate, every saving counts!

✅ Simplicity: One easy-to-manage bill for multiple services.

 

As part of the review process, we’ll refer you to our trusted UW partner, Sophie, who will guide you through the next steps.

 

Interested? Get in touch today to see how much you could save! 💷✨

 

#SaveMoney #BillReview #UtilitySavings #UW #SmartSwitch

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Review – February 2025

Economic Review – February 2025

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Download your copy here:

 

SFFS Economic Review_Feb 25

 

Data released last month by the Office
for National Statistics (ONS) revealed
that the UK economy unexpectedly grew
in the final three months of last year,
although more recent survey evidence
still points to a sluggish outlook.
The latest gross domestic product
(GDP) statistics showed that economic
output rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter
of 2024, after flatlining across the previous
three-month period. While the figure still
only represents a relatively lacklustre rate
of expansion, it was significantly stronger
than economists had been expecting, with
the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll
predicting a 0.1% contraction during the
final three months of the year.
A monthly breakdown showed that the
final quarter GDP figure was lifted by a
strong performance in December, which
saw a 0.4% expansion. This reflected
robust service sector growth, with ONS
noting that wholesalers, film distributors,
pubs and bars all did particularly well,
while machinery manufacturers
and pharmaceutical companies performed
strongly too. In addition, however,
it was noted that December’s growth
relied on government spending and a
potentially temporary build-up in firms’
inventories.
Data from a recently released economic
survey also suggests growth in the
first two months of 2025 has been tepid.
February’s flash headline growth indicator
from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 50.5
from 50.6 in January, leaving the index
only marginally above the 50.0 no change
threshold, implying the UK economy has
seen little growth so far this year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief
Business Economist Chris Williamson
said, “Early PMI survey data for February
indicate that business activity remained
largely stalled. While marginal output
growth was eked out in February, order
books deteriorated at a rate not seen
since August 2023 to hint at likely cuts to
business activity in the coming months
unless demand revives.”

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Karen Sheldon and Ro Bonham – Zoom Meeting

Karen Sheldon and Ro Bonham – Zoom Meeting

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Please see below, the links to Karen Sheldon’s Zoom meeting for “BNI Member Of the Month”:

This months “BNI Member Of the Month” focuses on Ro Bonham, who is a self – employed mortgage advisor, working for Sims Mortgages and Protection.

 

Week 1:

https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/As7J3EEm0BHbAd5S6CM2V1vi562TwUf2IU-mNthoZpObsMfdExgscloNEwyO5di_.JqkuItybvk2vvtxE?startTime=1738843761000

 

Week 2:

https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/As7J3EEm0BHbAd5S6CM2V1vi562TwUf2IU-mNthoZpObsMfdExgscloNEwyO5di_.JqkuItybvk2vvtxE?startTime=1738844090000

 

Week 3:

https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/As7J3EEm0BHbAd5S6CM2V1vi562TwUf2IU-mNthoZpObsMfdExgscloNEwyO5di_.JqkuItybvk2vvtxE?startTime=1738844623000

 

Week 4:

https://us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/As7J3EEm0BHbAd5S6CM2V1vi562TwUf2IU-mNthoZpObsMfdExgscloNEwyO5di_.JqkuItybvk2vvtxE?startTime=1738845002000

 

Ro’s Contact Details:

E: ro@simsmortgages.co.uk
T: +44 (0) 7956 720 579

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Winter Newsletter 2025

Winter Newsletter 2025

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Preparing for the longevity megatrend in an uncertain world

 

Please download your copy here:

Winter Newsletter 2025

 

 

As a new year dawns and we ponder
what the next 12 months may hold for us
as individuals and investors, one thing
is for certain – some familiar challenges
lie ahead.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)1
unveiled its latest economic assessment
the week prior to the US election, proclaiming
a period of ‘stable but underwhelming’
global growth for the year
ahead. The update also predicted a return
to a more neutral monetary policy stance
as inflation in most economies steadily falls
towards target in 2025.

The report acknowledged ‘exceptional’
levels of uncertainty, which Donald
Trump’s subsequent return to the White
House has done little to ease. Quantifying
the impact of the Republican’s victory
is difficult at this stage, but a return to
US protectionism and the prospect of
trade wars certainly pose a threat to the
global economy.

A global phenomenon
The IMF forecast also highlighted some
structural challenges that are expected to
temper global growth, with an ageing population
amongst the most prominent. As
well as impacting the economy and presenting
an investment theme to capitalise
on, the unfolding longevity megatrend is
a global phenomenon, which presents a
financial challenge at a personal level too
as we live longer.

Life goals
Research2 suggests most of us are vague
when it comes to financing increased longevity
– less than a third of 55 to 64-yearolds,
for example, currently prioritise funding
retirement. Preparation and setting
life goals typically makes us feel more in
control of, and optimistic about, our futures
and is undoubtedly key to confronting the
realities and practicalities of living longer.
Such targets, though, do need to be
focused beyond current life stages.
Talk, support, plan, live Encouragingly, the research also found
that people who use an adviser tend to be
better prepared for later-life eventualities,
whether that be financing retirement or
providing support for loved ones. Considerations
extend to emotional and practical,
as well as financial. Another element
of longevity is successful communication.
Advice helps clients successfully navigate
the financial landscape as well as encouraging
them to engage family in financial
conversations; we can support you on all
counts – it’s all in the planning!

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Review – December 2024

Economic Review – December 2024

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Please find below our Economic Review for December 2024

 

Download your copy here:

SFFS Economic Review_Dec 24

 

Headline inflation at eight-month high

Release of the latest inflation statistics showed consumer prices are now rising at their fastest rate since March 2024, while last month also saw Bank of England (BoE) policymakers become more divided over the need to cut interest rates.

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current

month with the same period a year earlier – rose from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November. ONS said the rise was primarily driven by an increase in motor fuel and clothing prices, which was only partially offset by a drop in air fares.

November’s CPI rise was, though, in line with expectations expressed in a Reuters poll of economists. Additionally, there

was some relief in relation to underlying price pressures, with services inflation – a measure closely monitored by the BoE – remaining unchanged at 5.0%.

The latest decision of the BoE’s

interest-rate setting body was announced a day after the inflation release, with the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting by a 6-3 majority to maintain Bank Rate at 4.75%. The three dissenting

voices each preferred an immediate 0.25 percentage point reduction in order to boost growth, but the six-strong majority, which included BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, expressed concern about wage growth and ‘inflation persistence.’

Commenting after announcing the Committee’s decision, Mr Bailey said he still believed the path for interest rates was “downwards.” However, he added, “We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year.”

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for early next month, with the outcome of the Committee’s deliberations due to be announced on 6 February.

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Summary – November 2024

Economic Summary – November 2024

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Please find below, our Economic review for November 2024

 

Download your Copy here:

SFFS Economic Review_Nov 24

 

Interest rates set to fall more gradually

 

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for only the second time since 2020 but also warned future reductions were likely to be more gradual due to the prospect of inflation creeping higher next year.

 

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 6 November, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points. This took Bank Rate down to 4.75%.

 

Commenting after announcing the news, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggested rates were likely to “continue to fall gradually from here” although he did caution that they would not be reduced “too quickly or by too much.” Mr Bailey was also at pains to emphasise the word “gradual” and added that the reason for such an approach was that “there are a lot of risks out there in the world at large and also domestically.”

 

Alongside the rate announcement, the Governor unveiled the BoE’s latest economic forecast which takes account of the Chancellor’s Budget measures. The updated projections suggest the policies announced in the Budget are likely to boost the headline rate of inflation by almost half a percentage point at its peak in just over two years’ time and result in it taking a year longer for inflation to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

 

The latest inflation data, which was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) two weeks after the MPC announcement, revealed that the annual headline rate jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October. While this sharp increase was largely driven by October’s energy price hike, the figure did come in slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations. This overshoot, combined with the Governor’s comments, has undoubtedly increased the prospect of interest rates remaining unchanged following the MPC’s final meeting of the year on 19 December.

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Autumn Newsletter – 2024

Autumn Newsletter – 2024

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Please find below “Your Finance Matters for Autumn 2024”

 

SFFS Your Finance Matters_Autumn 24

Download your copy here.

 

 

Reassuringly for investors, the latest batch of projections from economic soothsayers continues to predict a period of steady, if unspectacular, global growth.

 

The forecasts also highlight a number of economic concerns including ‘sticky’ inflation, large budget deficits and geopolitical uncertainties, which could inevitably create some investment challenges. Growth rates beat expectations Economic growth figures released over the summer generally proved stronger than analysts had expected, particularly in relation to Europe and the US (in Q2). And while economic momentum is expected to soften across the second half of this year, forecasters are still predicting steady rates of growth. The latest figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, forecast global growth of 3.2% for the whole of 2024 with the rate rising slightly to 3.3% next year.

 

Inflation persistency The IMF’s musings were contained in a report entitled ‘The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot,’ which highlighted two prominent near-term risks currently undermining growth prospects. Firstly, the IMF warned that ‘services inflation is holding
up progress on disinflation’ which could result in interest rates remaining ‘higher for even longer.’ Secondly, a deterioration in public finances has left many countries in a position of fiscal vulnerability and this is ‘magnifying economic policy uncertainty.’ Geopolitical uncertainties In what was dubbed ‘the year of the election’, geopolitical uncertainties unsurprisingly continue to be a key concern as well. Indeed, their impact on global growth
prospects can only be expected to rise in the near-term as the US presidential election
looms ever closer. Continuing geopolitical conflicts and the rise in geoeconomic competition is also creating ongoing challenges for the global economy.

 

Elements at play

Economic resilience has flowed through to central bank monetary policy as global institutions have largely adopted a cautious approach. Slower but still positive growth, lower inflation and interest rate reductions are a positive combination for investors. Whatever uncertainties do lie ahead, one investment fundamental remains constant: long-term investors are best served by holding a well-diversified, multiasset portfolio based on sound financial planning principles and thorough research.

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Review – September 2024

Economic Review – September 2024

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UK economic growth
forecast upgraded

 

SFFS Economic Review_Sep 24

Download your copy here

 

An updated forecast published last month by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests the UK will be the joint-second fastest growing economy among the G7 nations this year.

According to the OECD’s latest projections, the UK economy is set to expand by 1.1% across the whole of 2024, a significant upgrade from the think tank’s previous estimate of 0.4% which was released in May. The new forecast places the UK alongside Canada and France in the G7
rankings, with only the US economy forecast to grow more strongly this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) statistics released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), however, did show that the UK economy unexpectedly failed to grow during July, after also
flatlining in June. Despite the lack of growth across both of these months, ONS did note
that ‘longer term strength in the services sector’ had resulted in some growth across the economy during the three months to July as a whole.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also suggests growth across the UK private sector has softened more recently, with its preliminary headline indicator standing at 52.9 in September, down from August’s figure of 53.8. This does, however, mean that for the eleventh consecutive month, the Index remained above the 50 threshold that denotes expansion in private sector output.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson acknowledged that the latest data did suggest output growth in both manufacturing and services had moderated last month. He added, “A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter.”

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Review – July 2024

Economic Review – July 2024

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UK growth stronger than expected

 

SFFS Economic Review_July 24

Download your copy here

 

Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew faster in May than had been predicted, while survey evidence points to a more recent post-election pick-up in business activity.

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output rose by 0.4% in May, twice the level that had been forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. May’s figure also represented a strong rebound from the zero-growth rate recorded in April, with a broad-based increase in output as the services, manufacturing and construction sectors all posted positive rates of growth.

ONS also noted that growth was relatively strong in the three months to May, with GDP rising by 0.9% in comparison

to the previous three-month period. This represents the UK economy’s fastest rate of growth for more than two years.

Evidence from a closely watched economic survey also suggests private sector output picked up last month following a lull in the run-up to July’s General Election. The preliminary headline growth indicator from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.7 in July, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations and up from a six-month low of 52.3 in June. Manufacturing output

 

was particularly strong, with this sector expanding at its fastest rate in almost two and a half years.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Busi- ness Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI survey data for July signal an encouraging start to the second half of the year, with output, order books and employment all growing at faster rates

amid rebounding business confidence. The first post-election business survey paints

a welcoming picture for the new government, with companies operating across manufacturing and services having gained optimism about the future and reporting a renewed surge in demand.”

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

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