Economic Summary – November 2024

Georgia Turner blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, small business

Please find below, our Economic review for November 2024

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Interest rates set to fall more gradually

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for only the second time since 2020 but also warned future reductions were likely to be more gradual due to the prospect of inflation creeping higher next year.

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 6 November, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points. This took Bank Rate down to 4.75%.

Commenting after announcing the news, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggested rates were likely to “continue to fall gradually from here” although he did caution that they would not be reduced “too quickly or by too much.” Mr Bailey was also at pains to emphasise the word “gradual” and added that the reason for such an approach was that “there are a lot of risks out there in the world at large and also domestically.”

Alongside the rate announcement, the Governor unveiled the BoE’s latest economic forecast which takes account of the Chancellor’s Budget measures. The updated projections suggest the policies announced in the Budget are likely to boost the headline rate of inflation by almost half a percentage point at its peak in just over two years’ time and result in it taking a year longer for inflation to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

The latest inflation data, which was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) two weeks after the MPC announcement, revealed that the annual headline rate jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October. While this sharp increase was largely driven by October’s energy price hike, the figure did come in slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations. This overshoot, combined with the Governor’s comments, has undoubtedly increased the prospect of interest rates remaining unchanged following the MPC’s final meeting of the year on 19 December.

Economic Review – September 2024

Georgia Turner blog Blog, economic growth, Economic review, inflation, Interest Rates, pensions, small business

UK economic growth
forecast upgraded

SFFS Economic Review_Sep 24

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An updated forecast published last month by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests the UK will be the joint-second fastest growing economy among the G7 nations this year.

According to the OECD’s latest projections, the UK economy is set to expand by 1.1% across the whole of 2024, a significant upgrade from the think tank’s previous estimate of 0.4% which was released in May. The new forecast places the UK alongside Canada and France in the G7
rankings, with only the US economy forecast to grow more strongly this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) statistics released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), however, did show that the UK economy unexpectedly failed to grow during July, after also
flatlining in June. Despite the lack of growth across both of these months, ONS did note
that ‘longer term strength in the services sector’ had resulted in some growth across the economy during the three months to July as a whole.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also suggests growth across the UK private sector has softened more recently, with its preliminary headline indicator standing at 52.9 in September, down from August’s figure of 53.8. This does, however, mean that for the eleventh consecutive month, the Index remained above the 50 threshold that denotes expansion in private sector output.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson acknowledged that the latest data did suggest output growth in both manufacturing and services had moderated last month. He added, “A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter.”

Economic Review – July 2024

Georgia Turner blog Blog, economic growth, Economic review, inflation, Interest Rates, pensions, small business

UK growth stronger than expected

SFFS Economic Review_July 24

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Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew faster in May than had been predicted, while survey evidence points to a more recent post-election pick-up in business activity.

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output rose by 0.4% in May, twice the level that had been forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. May’s figure also represented a strong rebound from the zero-growth rate recorded in April, with a broad-based increase in output as the services, manufacturing and construction sectors all posted positive rates of growth.

ONS also noted that growth was relatively strong in the three months to May, with GDP rising by 0.9% in comparison

to the previous three-month period. This represents the UK economy’s fastest rate of growth for more than two years.

Evidence from a closely watched economic survey also suggests private sector output picked up last month following a lull in the run-up to July’s General Election. The preliminary headline growth indicator from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.7 in July, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations and up from a six-month low of 52.3 in June. Manufacturing output

was particularly strong, with this sector expanding at its fastest rate in almost two and a half years.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Busi- ness Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI survey data for July signal an encouraging start to the second half of the year, with output, order books and employment all growing at faster rates

amid rebounding business confidence. The first post-election business survey paints

a welcoming picture for the new government, with companies operating across manufacturing and services having gained optimism about the future and reporting a renewed surge in demand.”

Economic Review – June 2024

Georgia Turner blog Blog, economic growth, Economic review, inflation, Interest Rates, pensions, small business

Prospect of rate cut moves closer.

SFFS Economic Review_June 24

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While last month once again saw the
Bank of England (BoE) leave interest
rates unchanged at a 16-year high, the
minutes to the Bank’s Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) meeting signalled a
notable change in tone and economists
now view a rate cut as the most likely
outcome when the MPC next convenes.

At its latest meeting, which concluded
on 19 June, the MPC voted by a 7–2 majority
to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%. For the
second month running, the two dissenting
voices both called for an immediate
quarter-point reduction while, for the first
time, some other members described their
thinking as being “finely balanced.”
The minutes to the meeting also highlighted
this potentially significant shift in
stance, noting that the MPC will now be
looking at whether ‘the risks from inflation
persistence are receding.’ The minutes
concluded, ‘On that basis, the Committee
will keep under review for how long Bank
Rate should be maintained at its current
level.’

Last month’s inflation statistics published
by the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) prior to the MPC announcement,
revealed that the headline rate has now
returned to its 2% target level for the first
time in almost three years. In a statement
released alongside the MPC decision, BoE
Governor Andrew Bailey described that as
“good news.” He also said that policymakers
need to be sure inflation will remain low
and added, “that’s why we’ve decided to
hold rates for now.”

July’s release of economic data, particularly
in relation to wage growth and
services inflation, is likely to prove pivotal to
the next MPC decision which is due to be
announced on 1 August. A recent Reuters
survey, however, found that a large majority
of economists now expect an imminent
cut, with all but two of the 65 polled predicting
an August rate reduction.

Spring Budget 2024

Jenny Procter blog Blog, budget, economic growth, economy, inflation, Interest Rates, investments, pensions, small business

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On 6 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt delivered his Spring Budget to the House of Commons declaring it was “a Budget for long-term growth.” The fiscal update included a number of new policy measures, such as a widely-anticipated reduction in National Insurance, abolition of the non-dom tax status and new savings products designed to encourage more people to invest in UK assets. The Chancellor said his policies would help build a “high wage, high skill economy” and deliver “more investment, more jobs, better public services and lower taxes.”

OBR forecasts

During his speech, the Chancellor declared that the economy had “turned the corner on inflation” and “will soon turn the corner on growth” as he unveiled the latest economic projections produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). He started by saying that they showed the rate of inflation falling below the Bank of England’s 2% target level in “a few months’ time.” He noted that this was nearly a year earlier than the OBR had forecast in the autumn and said this had not happened “by accident” but was due to “sound money” policies.

The Chancellor also noted that the OBR forecast shows the government is on track to meet both its self-imposed fiscal rules which state that underlying debt must be falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) by the fifth year of the forecast and that public sector borrowing must be below 3% of GDP over the same time period. Indeed, in relation to the second rule, Mr Hunt pointed out that borrowing looks set to fall below 3% of GDP by 2025/26 and that by the end of the forecast period it represents the lowest level of annual borrowing since 2001.

In terms of growth, Mr Hunt revealed that the updated OBR projections suggest the UK economy will expand by 0.8% this year, marginally higher than the fiscal watchdog’s autumn forecast. Next year’s growth rate was also revised upwards to 1.9% compared to the 1.4% figure previously predicted.

Cost-of-living measures

The Chancellor also announced a series of measures designed to help families deal with cost-of-living pressures. These included: an extension to the Household Support Fund at current levels for a further six months; maintaining the ‘temporary’ 5p cut on fuel duty and freezing it for another 12 months; an extension of the freeze in alcohol duty until February 2025; an extension in the repayment period for new budgeting advance loans from 12 months to 24 months, and abolition of the £90 charge for a debt relief order.

Personal taxation, savings and pensions

Following previous changes to National Insurance Contributions (NICs) from January 2024, the government announced further changes to take effect this April:

The main rate of employee NICs will be cut by 2p in the pound from 10% to 8%, which, when combined with the 2p cut that took effect in January, is estimated to save the average salaried worker around £900 a year
There will be a further 2p cut from the main rate of self-employed NICs on top of the 1p cut announced at the Autumn Statement
This means that from 6 April 2024 the main rate of Class 4 NICs for the self-employed will reduce from 9% to 6%. Combined with the abolition of the requirement to pay Class 2 NICs, this will save an average self-employed person around £650 a year.

To remove unfairness in the system, changes to Child Benefit were announced:

The Child Benefit system will be based on household rather than individual incomes by April 2026
From April 2024 the threshold for the High Income Child Benefit Charge will be raised to £60,000 from £50,000, taking 170,000 families out of paying this charge
The rate of the charge will also be halved, so that Child Benefit is not lost in full until an individual earns £80,000 per annum
The government estimates that nearly half a million families will gain an average of £1,260 in 2024/25 as a result.

The government announced two savings products to encourage UK savings – a new UK Individual Savings Account (ISA) and British Savings Bonds:

The new ISA will have a £5,000 annual allowance in addition to the existing ISA allowance and will be a new tax-free product for people to invest in UK-focused assets
British Savings Bonds will be delivered through National Savings & Investments (NS&I) in April 2024, offering a guaranteed interest rate, fixed for three years.

Expressing concern that, across the pensions industry, investment into UK equities is only around 6%, the Chancellor announced plans to bring forward requirements for Defined Contribution pension funds to publicly disclose the breakdown of their asset allocations, including UK equities, working closely with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to achieve this.

The non-dom tax regime, available to some UK residents with permanent domicile overseas, is to be abolished. From April 2025, new arrivals to the UK will not have to pay tax on foreign income and gains for the first four years of their UK residency. After that, they will pay the same tax as other UK residents. Transition arrangements will be allowed for current non-doms.

In addition:

As previously announced in the Autumn Statement, the government is working to bring forward legislation by the end of the summer to allow people to invest in a diverse range of investment types through their ISAs
The existing ISA allowance remains at £20,000 and the JISA (Junior ISA) allowance and Child Trust Fund annual subscription limits remain at £9,000
The Dividend Allowance reduces to £500 from April 2024
The annual Capital Gains Tax (CGT) exemption reduces to £3,000 from April 2024
The standard nil rate Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold for England and Northern Ireland is £250,000 and £425,000 for first-time buyers, remaining in place until 31 March 2025
The Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold remain at £12,570 and £50,270 respectively until April 2028 (rates and thresholds may differ for taxpayers in parts of the UK where Income Tax is devolved)
There will be a consultation on moving to a residence-based regime for Inheritance Tax (IHT). No changes to IHT will take effect before 6 April 2025 – £325,000 nil-rate band, £175,000 main residence nil-rate band, with taper starting at £2m estate value
From 1 April 2024, personal representatives of estates will no longer need to take out commercial loans to pay IHT before applying to obtain a grant on credit from HMRC
The State Pension, as previously announced, will go up by 8.5% in April, which means £221.20 a week for the full, new flat-rate State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age after April 2016) and £169.50 a week for the full, old basic State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age before April 2016)

The removal of the Lifetime Allowance (LTA) from pensions tax legislation from April

As previously announced, the National Living Wage for over-23s – paid by employers – will rise from £10.42 an hour to £11.44 an hour in April.

Business measures

Various business measures announced included the raising of the threshold at which small businesses must register to pay VAT from £85,000 to £90,000 from April 2024. In addition, the Recovery Loan Scheme for small businesses will be extended until March 2026.

Property taxation

The Chancellor also announced the government’s plans to make the property tax system fairer, by:

Abolishing the Furnished Holiday Lettings tax regime
Abolishing Stamp Duty Land Tax Multiple Dwellings Relief from 1 June 2024
Reducing the higher rate of CGT on residential properties from 28% to 24%.

Public services

“Good public services need a strong economy to pay for them, but a strong economy also needs good public services.” This is how the Chancellor introduced the government’s “landmark” Public Sector Productivity Plan which, it says, will restart public sector reform and change the Treasury’s traditional approach to public spending.

Our National Health Service is, said Mr Hunt, “rightly the biggest reason most of us are proud to be British.” He announced £3.4bn to modernise NHS IT systems, which is forecast to unlock £35bn of savings by 2030 and boost NHS productivity by almost 2% per year between 2025/26 and 2029/30.

This includes:

Modernising NHS IT systems
Improvements to the NHS app to allow patients to confirm and modify appointments
Piloting the use of AI to automate back-office functions
Moving all NHS Trusts to electronic patient records
Over 100 upgraded AI-fitted MRI scanners to speed up results for potentially 130,000 patients per year.

The Chancellor announced a £2.5bn funding boost for the NHS in 2024/25, allowing the service to continue its focus on reducing waiting times for patients.

Mr Hunt also announced £800m of additional investment to boost productivity across other public services, including:

£230m for drones and new technology to free up police officers’ time for frontline work
£75m to roll out the Violence Reduction Unit model across England and Wales
£170m for the justice system, including £55m for family courts, £100m for prisons and £15m to reduce administrative burdens in the courts
£165m to fund additional children’s social care placements
An initial commitment of £105m to build new special free schools.

Other key points

New duty on vaping products to be introduced from October 2026
Tobacco duty will be increased from October 2026
Air Passenger Duty adjustments to non-economy class rates from 2025/26
Energy Profits Levy one year extension from 1 April 2028 to 2029
Boosting local growth through a continuation of the Investment Zones programme
£1bn in additional tax relief over the next five years for creative industries
Housing investment including £124m at Barking Riverside and £118m to accelerate delivery of the Canary Wharf scheme (including up to 750 homes)
£120m for the Green Industries Growth Accelerator (GIGA)
£7.4m upskilling fund pilot to help SMEs develop AI skills of the future
Extension to Freeport tax reliefs to September 2031
Extension to and deepening of devolution in England, including the North East Trailblazer Devolution Deal
HMRC to establish an advisory panel to support the administration of the R&D tax reliefs.

Closing comments

Jeremy Hunt signed off his Budget saying he was delivering, “A plan to grow the economy, a plan for better public services, a plan to make work pay… Growth up, jobs up and taxes down. I commend this Statement to the House.”

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding of the Budget taxation and HMRC rules and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

All details are believed to be correct at the time of writing (6 March 2024)

Economic Review – February 2024

Jenny Procter blog Blog, economic growth, Economic review, inflation, Interest Rates, pensions, small business

Survey suggests recession already over

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Official statistics released last month showed the UK economy fell into recession during the second half of last year, although more recent survey data does suggest the recession could already be over.

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the economy shrank by a larger than expected 0.3% during the final quarter of last year. This follows a 0.1% contraction between July and September, thereby pushing the UK into a technical recession – defined as two consecutive quarterly falls in GDP.

ONS data also revealed the economy experienced little growth across the whole of last year. In total, it grew by just 0.1% over the course of 2023 which, excluding the pandemic years, represents the weakest annual rate of growth since 2009.

The start of this year, however, has seen clear signs of a rebound in growth prompting suggestions that the recession may prove short-lived. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, for instance, recently told MPs on the Treasury Committee that the economy is showing “distinct signs of an upturn” and that the recession looks like being the weakest of modern times “by a long way.”

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also paints a more positive picture reporting strong service sector growth and business optimism at a two-year high. The preliminary headline growth indicator also rose, up from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February, beating analysts’ expectations and pointing to an upturn in economic growth.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The survey data points to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of 0.2-0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, allaying fears that last year’s downturn will have spilled over into 2024 and suggesting that the UK’s ‘recession’ is already over.”

High interest rates ‘under review’

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) once again kept interest rates at a 16-year high, although policymakers did signal they were open to the possibility of lowering rates for the first time since the pandemic.

On 1 February, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it had voted to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% following its latest deliberations. This decision, however, was not unanimous, with a three-way split emerging on the nine-member panel, two voting to raise rates by 0.25%, one preferring a similar-sized reduction and six opting to leave rates unchanged.

This meant the meeting was the first since 2020 when any policymaker had voted to reduce borrowing costs and the minutes also signalled a potential change of course – previous guidance stating that rates could rise again was withdrawn while a concluding sentence stated the MPC ‘will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.’

Last month’s release of inflation data also raised hopes that the Bank may begin cutting rates soon. The headline annual CPI rate unexpectedly held firm at 4.0% in January, defying economists’ predictions that it would rise to 4.2%. Indeed, after release of the consumer prices data, investors put a 72% chance of a first interest rate reduction in June, with a 0.25% cut fully priced in for August.

While the past few weeks have seen several MPC members suggest there needs to be more evidence of weaker price pressures before rates can be cut, the BoE’s Governor did recently describe market expectations that the Bank would start reducing rates this year as “not unreasonable.” The latest poll conducted by Reuters suggests economists now expect the BoE to begin cutting rates in the third quarter, with a slim majority predicting the first cut will be delivered in August.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of February, markets closed in mixed territory as investors processed a raft of data including US inflation, jobless claims and UK earnings.

Across the pond, data released at month end showed US prices increased at the slowest rate in nearly three years, keeping a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the table, while jobless claims rose. The Dow closed February up 2.22% on 38,996.39, with the tech-orientated NASDAQ closing the month up 6.12% on 16,091.92.

On home shores, the blue chip FTSE 100 index closed February on 7,630.02, a small loss of 0.01%, meanwhile the FTSE 250 ended the month 1.57% lower on 19,054.87. The FTSE AIM closed on 736.50, a loss of 2.42% in the month.

On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 ended February on 4,877.77, 4.93% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 continued its bull run, concluding the month on 39,166.19, a gain of 7.94%. The index ended lower on the last trading day of the month ahead of the release of key US inflation data.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.16 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Brent crude ended the month trading at around $82 a barrel, a gain of 1.61%. The price per barrel has remained relatively stable within a narrow range over the last few weeks. Gold closed February trading around $2,048 a troy ounce, a small loss in the month of 0.25%. The price was supported by a softening in the US core price index at month end.

Index Value (29/02/24) Movement since 31/01/24

FTSE 100 7,630.02 -0.01%

FTSE 250 19,054.87 -1.57%

FTSE AIM 736.50 -2.42%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,877.77 +4.93%

NASDAQ Composite 16,091.92 +6.12%

Dow Jones 38,996.39 +2.22%

Nikkei 225 39,166.19 +7.94%

Wage growth slows again

Earnings statistics published last month showed that nominal pay is now rising at the weakest pace for more than a year with survey data suggesting this decline looks set to continue.

According to the latest ONS figures, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 6.2% across the final three months of 2023. Although this figure was slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations, it was notably lower than the 6.7% figure recorded in the three months to November 2023 and represents the slowest rate of increase since the August to October 2022 period.

Survey evidence also points to an expected further slowdown in levels of pay growth. Data recently released by XpertHR, for instance, showed that the median basic pay settlement fell to 5.1% in the three months to the end of January; this represents a significant drop from the 6.0% rate recorded during the previous three-month period.

In addition, research from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) suggests employers expect to raise basic pay by an average of 4% over the coming year. This is well below the 5% figure reported across 2023 and signals the first drop in this measure for nearly four years.

Retail sales rebound in January

The latest batch of retail sales statistics suggest consumers have recovered some of their appetite for spending, with much stronger than expected growth in sales volumes recorded at the start of the new year.

According to ONS figures published last month, total retail sales volumes rose by 3.4% in January compared to the previous month. ONS said this growth, which was significantly above the 1.5% consensus forecast predicted in a Reuters poll of economists, was driven by strong supermarket sales and shoppers taking advantage of new year bargains.

Commenting on the day the figures were released, British Retail Consortium Director of Insight Kris Hamer called the news “promising.” He also suggested the growth reflected “rising levels of consumer confidence, as well as a boost from the January sales.”

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey also painted a more positive picture of the retail sector, with its headline measure of sales volumes in the year to February rising to -7% from -50% in January. This marked the slowest rate of decline in year-on-year sales for ten months. Looking further ahead, however, the survey did strike a note of caution with retailers expecting sales to contract at a slightly faster pace in March.

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 March 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Economic Review – January 2024

Jenny Procter blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, inflation, Interest Rates, investments, small business

UK economy rebounds in November

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Official statistics show the economy returned to growth in November, although analysts believe it remains a close call as to whether or not the UK will once again manage to avoid a recession.

Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November following a contraction of a similar magnitude during the previous month. ONS said the services sector led the rebound, with Black Friday providing a boost to retailers, warehousing and couriers, while car leasing and computer games firms also enjoyed a buoyant month.

Despite November’s bounce back, ONS noted that the longer-term picture remains one of little growth over the past year. Indeed, output actually shrank by 0.2% in the three months to the end of November, and the statistics agency said a contraction or even flat data in December could lead to a second successive quarter of falling output, and thereby tip the economy into a shallow technical recession.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released towards the end of last month, however, paints a more positive picture with business confidence rising to its highest level since last May. The preliminary headline economic growth indicator also rose, up from 52.1 in December to 52.5 in January, beating analysts’ expectations and pointing to a stronger than expected start to 2024 for the UK economy.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “UK business activity growth accelerated for a third straight month in January, according to early PMI survey data, marking a promising start to the year. The survey data point to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of 0.2% after a flat fourth quarter, therefore skirting recession and showing signs of renewed momentum.”

Surprise uptick in inflation rate

Last month’s release of consumer price statistics revealed a small increase in the UK headline rate of inflation, bucking analysts’ expectations for a further easing in price pressures.

Data published by ONS showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – stood at 4.0% in December. This was up from November’s 3.9% figure and was also higher than the 3.8% consensus forecast from a Reuters poll of economists.

ONS said the increase, which represented the first inflation uptick in 10 months, was partly driven by a sharp rise in tobacco prices due to duty increases. There were also material upward contributions from the recreation, airfare and clothing sectors, although these were partially offset by a fall in food inflation with prices in this sector still rising but at a much lower rate than in the comparable period last year.

Analysts typically expect January’s inflation rate to rise as a result of base effects and there are a number of notable risks to the outlook particularly relating to disruption of shipping in the Red Sea. However, most economists are still predicting the downward trajectory will resume with potentially large declines forecast this spring.

Capital Economics, for instance, recently suggested CPI inflation could drop below 2% by April. The independent research firm also said this could result in the UK’s pace of price growth actually breaching the 2% mark before both the US and Eurozone.

While December’s inflation rise did dent market expectations of an early cut in interest rates, analysts do still typically expect the Bank of England to sanction a series of rate reductions this year. Indeed, a recent Reuters poll found that just over half of economists expect the first cut to be sanctioned before mid-2024.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Major global indices were mixed at the end of January. On the last trading day of the month the FTSE 100 lost ground ahead of imminent interest rate decisions in the UK and US.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 7,630.57, a loss of 1.33%, while the mid cap orientated FTSE 250 closed January 1.68% lower on 19,357.95. The FTSE AIM closed on 754.75, a loss of 1.12% in the month.

On 31 January, the Federal Reserve decided to retain interest rates for another month, whilst making it clear that it needs to see more progress on inflation before reducing borrowing costs. The Dow closed the month up 1.22% on 38,150.30, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed January up just over 1% on 15,164.01. At month end the broader market came under pressure as technology stocks failed to live up to expectations.

Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month 2.80% higher, on 4,648.40. The Nikkei 225 ended January on 36,286.71, up 8.43%. During the month, Japan’s benchmark index broke past the 35,000 mark, for the first time since February 1990.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.27 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Gold closed the month trading around $2,053 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 1.21%. Brent crude closed January trading at around $80 a barrel, a monthly gain of 4.87%. Oil posted its first monthly gain since September.

32Index Value (31/01/24) Movement since 29/12/23

FTSE 100 7,630.57 -1.33%

FTSE 250 19,357.95 -1.68%

FTSE AIM 754.75 -1.12%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,648.40 +2.80%

NASDAQ Composite 15,164.01 +1.02%

Dow Jones 38,150.30 +1.22%

Nikkei 225 36,286.71 +8.43%

Government borrowing lower than expected

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed a smaller-than-expected budget deficit providing the Chancellor with more room for manoeuvre as he prepares to deliver his Spring Statement in March.

ONS data showed government borrowing fell to £7.8bn in December, nearly half the level predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. This left the fiscal year-to-date total at £119bn, almost £5bn below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November forecast produced for the Autumn Statement, principally as a result of lower than anticipated inflation reducing debt interest payments.

Prior to release of the data, the Chancellor had hinted at potential pre-election tax cuts when he delivers his Spring Budget on 6 March. Speaking during a visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said he wanted to move in the direction of cutting taxes and noted that countries with lower taxes “are more dynamic, more competitive and generate more money for public services.”

Analysis released late last month by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, however, suggests the next government is likely to face the toughest challenge since the 1950s to bring down the country’s high debt burden. The economic think tank also warned that tax cuts now could compound the problem.

Retail sales fall sharply

Data released last month by ONS revealed that the UK retail sector suffered its sharpest decline in sales volumes for almost three years.

Official retail sales statistics showed sales volumes fell by 3.2% in December; this figure was worse than all predictions in a Reuters poll of economists with the consensus forecast pointing to a 0.5% fall. The monthly decline was also the largest since January 2021 when the reintroduction of pandemic restrictions heavily impacted sales. While ONS did say people appeared to have shopped earlier this year in order to take advantage of Black Friday sales, they also noted evidence of consumers spending less on gifts while food sales also notably declined in the run-up to Christmas.

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests the retail environment remains extremely challenging with year-on-year sales volumes in January falling at the fastest pace since the pandemic. The survey also found that retailers anticipate a similar rate of contraction in February.

CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “Retailers reported a further deterioration in activity at the start of 2024. Looking ahead, demand conditions in the sector will remain challenging as higher interest rates continue to feed through to mortgage payments and household incomes.”

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 February 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission

Economic Review October 2023 – Inflation rate holds steady

Jenny Procter blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, inflation, Interest Rates, investments

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The Bank of England (BoE) Governor has described the latest batch of inflation statistics as “quite encouraging,” adding that he expects a “noticeable drop” in the headline rate when the next set of data is released later this month.

Figures recently published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – held steady at 6.7% in September. This ended a run of three consecutive monthly declines and came in slightly ahead of analysts expectations’ of a further 0.1% fall.

ONS pointed out that the figures did include the first monthly decline in food price levels for two years. However, a sharp rise in fuel costs between August and September was the main factor that prevented the CPI annual rate from declining again. Despite remaining unchanged, though, September’s update does leave CPI below the level forecast by the BoE in early August.

The latest release did also report a fall in core inflation, which excludes volatile elements such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, although this decrease was again less than economists had predicted. This measure of inflation, which is typically viewed as a better guide to longer-term price trends, fell to 6.1% in September from 6.2% in August.

Commenting on the consumer prices data release in an interview with the Belfast Telegraph, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, “It was not far off what we were expecting. Core inflation fell slightly from what we were expecting and that’s quite encouraging.” The Governor also stressed that he expects to see a “noticeable drop” in the CPI rate when the next set of figures are published in mid-November as last year’s sharp hike in energy prices drops out of the annual comparison.

Economy stages partial rebound

Growth statistics released last month by ONS showed the UK economy returned to growth in August following a sharp decline in July, although forward-looking indicators continue to suggest the outlook remains uncertain.

According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the UK economy grew by 0.2% in August following a downwardly revised fall of 0.6% in July. ONS said August’s modest bounce back was partly driven by the education sector, which recovered from two days of industrial action the previous month, along with a boost from computer programmers and engineers.

While analysts typically described the latest GDP data as ‘lacklustre,’ August’s figures are thought to have reduced the possibility of a recession beginning as early as the July to September period. Indeed, ONS noted that the economy would only need to have grown by 0.2% during September to avoid it contracting across the third quarter as a whole.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index released towards the end of last month, however, does suggest that business activity across the private sector continues to weaken. The preliminary composite headline Index stood at 48.6 in October, a marginal increase from September’s figure of 48.5, but below the 50 threshold that denotes a contraction in private sector output for the third month running.

Commenting on the survey’s findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The UK economy continued to skirt with recession in October, as the increased cost of living, higher interest rates and falling exports were widely blamed on a third month of falling output. The overall pace of decline remains only modest, but gloom about the outlook has intensified in the uncertain economic climate, boding ill for output in the coming months. A recession, albeit only mild at present, cannot be ruled out.”

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

As October drew to a close, investors focused on major central bank meetings with the Bank of England and Federal Reserve due to meet in early November.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed October on 7,321.72, a loss of 3.76%. At month end losses in some mining and energy stocks weighed, impacted by declines in commodity prices following weaker-than-expected factory activity data in China. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 closed down 6.54% on 17,083.05, while the FTSE AIM closed the month on 679.85, a loss of 6.38%. On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 ended October on 4,061.12, a loss of 2.72%.

At month end, Asian equities struggled as disappointing activity data from China reignited some concerns over the resilience of the world’s second largest economy. In Japan the Nikkei 225 closed the month on 30,858.85, down 3.14%.

A raft of new data has highlighted resilience in the US economy. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched as an indicator of how long interest rates are likely to remain elevated. The Dow Jones Index closed the month down 1.36% on 33,052.87, while the NASDAQ closed the month down 2.78% on 12,851.24.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.14 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.21 against sterling and at $1.05 against the euro.

Safe haven demand as a result of the Middle Eastern conflict saw gold prices trading higher in the month. Gold closed October trading at around $1,996 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of around 6.76%. With traders wary of any new developments in the conflict and concerns over slowing fuel demand in China weighing, Brent crude closed the month trading at around $85, a loss over the month of 7.41%.

Index Value (31/10/23) Movement since 29/09/23

FTSE 100 7,321.72 -3.76%

FTSE 250 17,083.05 -6.54%

FTSE AIM 679.85 -6.38%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,061.12 -2.72%

NASDAQ Composite 12,851.24 -2.78%

Dow Jones 33,052.87 -1.36%

Nikkei 225 30,858.85 -3.14%

Jobs market continues to cool

Last month’s release of labour market statistics suggests there has been a further softening in the UK jobs market, although earnings data did reveal average pay is now rising above inflation for the first time in almost two years.

The latest figures released by ONS were dubbed ‘experimental estimates’ produced under a new calculation that attempts to account for low response rates to the labour force survey. The new data showed that, although the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.2% during the June to August period, the overall level of employment fell and the rate of economic inactivity rose.

In addition, the estimated total number of job vacancies dropped by 43,000 during the three months to September, the 15th consecutive reported decline. This reduced the number of vacancies to a two-year low of 988,000, although this figure is still significantly above pre-pandemic vacancy levels recorded in early 2020.

The latest earnings figures also revealed that regular pay rose at an annual rate of 7.8% in the June to August period, higher than the average inflation rate over the same three months. Furthermore, data revisions meant that wage growth actually outpaced inflation in the three months to July for the first time since October 2021.

Retail sales in autumnal fall

Official retail sales statistics reported a sharper than expected decline in sales volumes during September, while more recent survey evidence suggests the current trading environment remains extremely challenging.

Data published last month by ONS revealed that total retail sales volumes fell by 0.9% in September, a much larger decline than the 0.2% fall predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. ONS said it had been ‘a poor month for clothing stores’ with the unseasonable warm autumnal conditions reducing sales of colder weather gear, while the quick pace of price rises had deterred shoppers from buying ‘non-essential goods.’

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests sales remained weak last month, with retailers reporting the joint-worst level of sales volumes for October since records began in 1983. The survey also found that retailers do not anticipate a turnaround in fortunes this month, with cost-of-living concerns and higher interest rates expected to continue weighing on consumer spending.

Commenting on the findings, CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “As the festive period approaches, the retail sector remains in a perilous position. While slowing inflation should help to bolster households’ income in the coming months, retailers will continue to face headwinds from higher energy and borrowing costs.”

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 November 2023 )

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Your big goals and how good financial planning can help

Jenny Procter blog Blog, Financial Planning, Financial Security, Goals, retirement

As financial professionals, it’s very easy for us to start by looking at the products our clients may need: the pension, the investment plan, the right insurance policy. We spend our working lives considering the detail of these products, and we know they are the solution to many of our clients’ challenges.

But as a financial adviser I am always interested in what my clients want to achieve. These are often the first things we talk about, before we get into the detail of existing plans and policies. I want to hear about your big life plans and goals so I can ensure that your financial arrangements are tailored to help you reach them.

I recently achieved a major personal goal, to climb Kilimanjaro. At 5895 metres, it is the highest mountain in Africa and the fourth highest in the world. It was a trip of 8 days, including camping on the mountain side and some very early starts each day. Training for the climb has been a big part of my life for the last year. Many weekends have been spent building up the distance I could comfortably manage to walk each day and climbing some of England’s highest peaks to get comfortable with the gradient. I could not have achieved my big goal without putting all the right planning in place.

Financial planning works in much the same way. When I speak to clients about their major goals, we can start to plan out what they need to do in the coming months and years to ensure that when the time comes they are able to achieve the big goal. Everyone’s big goal looks different but over the years there are some common conversations that crop up regularly.

I want to exit my business leaving it in safe hands

Many of my clients are small business owners and as they get older they want to be able to reduce the time they are working in the business. In the case of a family business they want to be able to leave it to the next generation. We often talk about pension plans, inheritance planning and key person insurance policies.

I want to set my children up for financial security

This conversation happens with many clients, from the point they are new parents all the way to their children graduating and developing their own careers. We all want to ensure our children are provided for. Housing and education costs are particular things that my clients want to help with. I can help with appropriate investment plans when children are younger, financial planning for school fees and inheritance planning later on.

To enjoy my retirement

I don’t think I have ever spoken to a client who isn’t anticipating enjoying their life once they have finished work! To fully enjoy your time, it is essential to ensure you have the right pension arrangements and enough put aside to have the lifestyle that you anticipate. The pension market is full of different products, and I spend a lot of time carefully considering the right approach for each client.

I’m highly in favour of ensuring that your financial affairs are structured to help you achieve your big goals. If that sounds like a conversation you need to have, please get in touch and we can work out the plan that will get you there.

Signs of optimism in global economy

Jenny Procter blog Blog, economic growth, economy, finance, investment, Pension

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Although the global economy continues to face significant headwinds, statistics released during the first few months of this year have revealed unexpected signs of resilience. This has led economists to begin upgrading growth forecasts, while the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook reported signs of ‘nascent optimism.’

Growth stronger than expected

Uncertainty undoubtedly continues to be a key feature of the world economy with pressure being exerted from a number of issues. First quarter data, though, has shown that the global economy performed better than most economists had previously feared, with growth recorded across all regions amid signs of the green shoots of recovery.

Inflationary pressures set to fall

Persistent inflationary pressures and tighter financial conditions, however, do remain key challenges for policymakers around the globe. Inflation has so far stayed stubbornly high and, while economists do expect it to continue falling over the rest of the year, this decline is predicted to be at a slower pace than previously thought.

Resilient economic growth

A key theme at the World Economic Forum’s recent Growth Summit was ‘enabling resilient economic growth’ with discussions focusing on inclusive and sustainable growth, and equitable globalisation. The organisation’s updated forecast showed a notable strengthening in growth expectations, although it also highlighted sharp variations by region. The most buoyant activity is predicted to be in Asia, with China’s reopening expected to drive a significant rebound, while growth prospects are thought to be noticeably weaker in Europe.

Diversification is key

An improving outlook should clearly create opportunities for shrewd investors. However, the relatively uncertain backdrop, along with divergent regional dynamics, inevitably means diversification will remain a vital component in any investor’s armoury. Spreading money in a globally diversified portfolio across a range of sectors and different size businesses should, as ever, prove an effective way to mitigate risk in the quest to build wealth.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Striking a balance

While recent financial challenges have taken their toll on everyone’s pockets, it comes as no surprise that parents are putting concerns about their children’s finances above their own, as highlighted in a recent survey of advisers¹.

Over half (55%) of the advisers surveyed noted that adult children were taking priority in clients’ wealth planning at present, with many taking action to assist with their children’s financial struggles amid the cost-of-living crisis.

The main requests by parents wanting to lend a financial hand include releasing funds (25%) for their adult children, while over half (55%) of the advisers have clients choosing to access their pension savings in order to enhance their disposable income to support family members, with 18% of those clients taking an additional lump sum specifically to help their offspring. Reportedly 53% of advisers have clients keen to adjust their finances, with 40% requesting advice on ensuring investments stayed ahead of inflation.

Although people are understandably concerned about their children’s financial circumstances and are keen to help, it’s important to be mindful about striking the right balance and not to lose focus on your financial objectives for your own future. For help in striking that balance, get in touch.

¹Royal London, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

IHT goes mainstream

Inheritance Tax (IHT) receipts have been consistently rising, with new data from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) showing takings for the 2022-23 tax year totalled £7.1bn, up a massive £1bn from the previous tax year (£6.1bn 2021-22). According to HMRC, this huge uplift can be attributed in part to ‘a combination of the recent rises in asset values and the government’s decision to maintain the IHT nil rate band thresholds at their 2020 to 2021 levels up to and including 2025 to 2026.’

Reported estimates from the Spring Budget detail that over the next five years, IHT is expected to bring in £38bn for the Treasury, meaning annual receipts will exceed £8bn by 2027-28, with 6.7% of deaths expected to trigger an IHT charge. This compares with 3.76% of UK deaths in 2019-20.

Record receipts have prompted suggestions that the tax has now become mainstream. Previously dubbed a tax on the wealthy, this is certainly no longer the case, as frozen thresholds and elevated house prices impact.

The good news is that through expert planning you can legitimately mitigate this tax, so you can pass on assets to your family as you’d intended. There are various different strategies depending on your unique circumstances, including making gifts during your lifetime, considering placing assets into trust, making use of exemptions, and thinking about leaving something to charity, to name but a few.

Don’t go it alone

IHT is a complex tax, with reliefs and exemptions on gifts to consider and the interaction with other taxes. These days, with many more estates likely to be subject to IHT, taking expert advice could save your beneficiaries substantial amounts of tax. Get in touch.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

In the news

HNWIs cutting pension contributions

Research has highlighted that in an effort to alleviate daily financial pressures, including rising mortgage rates, one third of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) have reduced their pension contributions or intend to do so in the next six months². Those with assets of £250,000 plus are more likely to have reduced their pension contributions in the last six months (14%), versus 9% across the UK population as a whole.

Those HNWIs who have already taken steps to reduce their pension payments have done so by an average of £1,246 a month, nearly £15,000 over the course of a year. Over eighty percent (84%) of HNWIs are already experiencing or expecting an increase in their mortgage rates to put a strain on their cashflow, prompting many to reduce their pension contributions.

Interestingly, the research has also shown that the majority of HNWIs are underestimating the requirements for a comfortable retirement, believing on average that a pension pot around £580,000 will do the job, but in reality a pot of nearly £700,000 plus the full State Pension will suffice, according to the research.

²Saltus, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Achieving real financial empowerment

Traditionally, people might have assessed their financial health by simply checking the balance on their bank account or totalling their amassed level of wealth. In recent years, however, a different measure has emerged which seeks to balance financial stability with emotional wellbeing.

Financial empowerment

This new concept places greater emphasis on goals and developing a financial plan to achieve life’s aspirations; in other words, it’s about people gaining control over their finances rather than their finances controlling them. Achieving genuine financial empowerment does not therefore focus simply on someone’s level of wealth, but on handling that money so it has a truly positive impact on their wellbeing.

A state of mind

In many ways, financial empowerment is about understanding the emotional relationship with money by focusing on an individual’s mindset as well as their finances. Taking time to strategise, by aligning spending and savings commitments with long-term goals while being prepared for life’s unexpected financial challenges, can provide a logical, ordered approach that brings satisfaction and pride to our financial lives. In effect, it creates control that affords a sense of financial freedom and thereby puts us on track to a fulfilling, well-lived life and retirement.

Empowerment versus income

Analysis³, which compares people’s emotional experiences with their level of empowerment and earnings, offers further valuable insight. It found that financially empowered people had mostly positive experiences, even those in lower income brackets, while those who felt disempowered were generally less happy with their finances than their peers. This suggests that a sense of personal power rather than someone’s income level is the key to achieving emotional wellbeing in their financial lives.

It’s all in the planning

Financial empowerment effectively derives from equipping ourselves with the right tools. With the clear, transparent advice and professional support our firm provides, we can construct a well thought-out, long-term but flexible plan that will allow you to live the life you want and thereby achieve true financial empowerment.

³Morningstar, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Pensions – what’s changing?

During the Spring Budget the Chancellor announced several changes to pensions including increasing the Annual Allowance and the Money Purchase Annual Allowance. The changes, the most significant since pensions freedoms in 2015, have largely been met with positivity, bringing greater flexibility and opportunity.

Some higher-paid workers faced additional tax bills as a result of building sizeable pension pots or significant final salary benefits. The overhaul makes it easier for people to accumulate a larger pension pot and not be penalised by taxes, also enabling them to build larger capital sums needed to

produce sufficient retirement income. Let’s take a look in closer detail at some of the main changes, many of which took effect from 6 April 2023:

The Lifetime Allowance (LTA) charge was removed, with the LTA (currently £1,073,100) itself expected to be formally abolished (likely to be April 2024), allowing people to save more into their pension over their lifetime without facing tax charges for exceeding it

The standard Annual Allowance (AA) increased from £40,000 to £60,000 (max 100% of earnings), allowing many individuals to pay more into their pension each tax year and receive tax relief on it. Individuals are still able to carry forward any unutilised allowance from the previous three tax years. Increasing the AA will particularly benefit workers approaching retirement who may have neglected pension saving in the past, who will be able to pay more into their pension each year and receive tax relief

The ‘adjusted income’ threshold for Annual Allowance tapering increased from £240,000 to £260,000 and the minimum tapered Annual Allowance increased from £4,000 to £10,000 (meaning that individuals with annual adjusted income of £360,000 or more will have an Annual Allowance of £10,000). The tapered Annual Allowance is the reduced pension Annual Allowance that is applied to those who now have an ‘adjusted income’ over £260,000, for every £2 earned above the £260,000 threshold the normal Annual Allowance is reduced by £1

The Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) increased from £4,000 per tax year to £10,000, to encourage those drawing a pension to continue working. This is the amount you can pay into your pension after you have accessed pension benefits, and still enjoy tax relief. The additional MPAA means anyone already using their pension but continuing to work, or looking to return to work, will be incentivised to do so as they can increase the size of their pension pot and receive tax relief.

Good for you

The changes only really impact the highest earners, those with generous company pensions and those wanting to aggressively fund their pensions later in life. The government is hoping the changes will incentivise those in certain high demand, high earning professions such as GPs and NHS consultants to postpone retirement.

Professional pension advice is essential to ensure you make the most suitable decisions with your pension and to maximise your pension provision without encountering tax issues.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Summer retirement round-up – developing a coherent strategy

The last few years have created an increasingly complex backdrop for retirement planning. Not only has the post-pandemic era seen attitudes to work alter significantly, but macro-economic headwinds from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis have created significant unhelpful market volatility. In combination, this has inevitably heightened the need for everyone to engage in retirement conversations at the earliest opportunity. Some recent research sets the backdrop for your summer retirement round-up, spotlighting key trends.

Changing face of retirement

A recent study⁴ of UK employees has shown how people are re-evaluating plans for work and later life, with evidence that partial retirement may become the new norm. In total, over half of all workers said they like the idea of continuing to work through retirement. The research also highlighted a strong sense of semi-retirement positivity, with nine out of ten saying they were ‘much happier’ after reducing their working hours.

Low levels of confidence

Another study⁵, however, has highlighted a distinct lack of confidence among 55 to 75-year-olds when it comes to financing retirement. Indeed, nearly a third said they were either not at all confident or not very confident they would enjoy a comfortable lifestyle in retirement, compared to less than one in five who felt very or extremely confident.

Mind the gap

The research also highlighted a sense of unpreparedness, with a notable divergence in anticipated levels of retirement income and expenditure. For instance, while average expected spending five years into retirement was predicted to be 92% of pre-retirement levels, average income was only expected to hit 78%; other evidence suggests this latter figure is an aspiration few pensioners are likely to achieve.

Planning is essential

These findings suggest many from the next generation of retirees will need support if their finances are to see them through retirement, and this vividly highlights the need to develop a sound strategy tailored to an individual’s unique circumstances long before retirement looms. Planning ahead can address potential income requirements and offer solutions that build resilience to ensure you enjoy the retirement you deserve.

⁴Aviva, 2023

⁵The Wisdom Council, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

A defining moment – FTSE 350 female board representation

Three years ahead of schedule, FTSE 350 companies have met the target of achieving 40% female board representation, according to the latest FTSE Women Leaders Review⁶.

The report highlights ‘steady progress’ in getting women leaders to the ‘top table of business in the UK,’ with Nimesh Patel and Penny James, co-chairs of the Review describing the achievement as “a defining moment and testament to the power of the voluntary approach and the collective efforts of many businesses and individuals over the last decade.”

⁶FTSE Women Leaders, 2023

Making purposeful financial decisions to combat inflation

The upsurge in inflation over the last year or so has again vividly highlighted the devastating impact sharply rising price levels can wreak on people’s finances. Carefully reviewing your financial choices now, though, can ensure you continue making appropriate decisions that will help to stop inflation leaving a lasting impression on your financial future.

A lack of understanding

Official statistics show the headline rate of inflation peaked at a 41-year high of 11.1% last October but, although economists expect it to continue falling for the rest of this year, the rate has so far remained stubbornly high. Research⁷, however, suggests the impact inflation has on our finances is not widely understood, with over half of UK adults failing to grasp how rising prices eat into the buying power of their savings.

Limiting the damage

Inheritance is another area where high inflation can have a profound effect. When combined with the continuing nil-rate threshold freeze, soaring prices inevitably mean more estates are likely to be dragged into the Inheritance Tax net. Careful planning now, though, can limit any future liability and preserve people’s ability to pass on assets to their heirs.

Pension pressures

Retirement provision is also a concern, with growing evidence that cost-of-living pressures are leading some to cut back contributions as a way to make ends meet, without realising the lasting damage such decisions can make. For instance, analysis⁸ based on various assumptions (about such factors as salary, pension contribution rates and investment growth) shows that if someone opts out of pension contributions for five years in their 20s it could reduce their final retirement pot at age 66 by £114,000.

Stay on plan

At times like these, it is often worth revisiting what initially inspired you to set your financial goals. Reconnecting with those original motivations can encourage you to stick to your plans and thereby help maintain control over your financial destiny.

Here for you

As ever, we’re here to help; so please get in touch if you need to review your finances and, together, we’ll plan to mitigate inflation’s impact on your future financial wellbeing.

⁷Aviva, 2022

⁸Standard Life, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

In other news

National Insurance (NI) gap

If you want to boost your State Pension and plug a gap in your NI record, the government has just extended the deadline for doing so from 31 July 2023 to 5 April 2025. The government has been allowing eligible people to retrospectively build up their April 2006 to April 2016 NI record through voluntary contributions, as part of transitional arrangements introduced alongside the new State Pension. You can check your NI record here www.gov.uk/check-national-insurance-record.

Locked Child Trust Funds

Around 80,000 young people who lack the capacity to make financial decisions have been unable to access money in their Child Trust Fund⁹. Instead of being able to withdraw the money when they turned 18, families are having to pay to go through the Court of Protection, a long-winded and costly process. Ministry of Justice figures show only 15 accounts were accessed through this process in 2021.

Using property wealth to support grandchildren

Research¹⁰ has found that 79% of grandparents are providing financial support for their grandchildren, with one in 12 (8%) using their property wealth to do this. Grandparents aged 50 to 64 are twice as likely to use property wealth to gift to grandchildren compared with 65 to 74-year-olds, indicating that the next generation of grandparents are likely to use equity in their property for financial planning.

⁹Renaissance Legal, 2023

¹⁰L&G, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. Think carefully before securing other debts against your home. Equity released from your home will be secured against it.

The benefits of being a new tax year front runner

The longer days of summer are the ideal time to think about what you want for yourself and your family in the future, to set specific financial goals and to benefit from getting plans organised early in the tax year.

Setting your goals

Considering your individual financial goals and developing a financial plan that aligns with those goals can help you to identify what is important to you, to stay disciplined and focused on your long-term objectives, avoiding short-term market fluctuations or investment fads.

The early bird

Investing early in the tax year can offer several benefits:

It gives your investments more time to grow tax-free or tax-deferred, benefiting from compounded returns
It can help you avoid a last-minute rush to make contributions before the end of the tax year, which can lead to mistakes or missed opportunities
There is time to spread your contributions over the year, making budgeting easier.

Work with us

We can work with you to identify your financial goals and set up plans so that you can get ahead early in the tax year, giving you powerful strategies for building wealth and achieving financial security.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

Investment myths debunked

To many, the world of investing is shrouded in mystery; the realm of financial whizz-kids and the super-rich. In reality, however, this is not the case and, once myth is separated from reality, it should be clear that investing is actually accessible to all.

Can’t invest, won’t invest!

Research¹¹ has highlighted several reasons why people are sometimes reluctant to invest. The main one, cited by 45% of respondents, is because they don’t have sufficient money, while 23% feel they are not knowledgeable enough about investing and 21% are worried about losing money.

Only for the rich?

These findings mirror a number of common misconceptions surrounding investing, one of which is that only wealthy people invest. However, while this may have been the case in the past, it is certainly not true nowadays, with investment options available for people with relatively small sums to invest.

Expertise and devotion required?

Other common investment myths include the idea that you have to be a stock market genius and monitor your investments on a daily basis. Both of these are untrue: advice is readily available to guide novice investors throughout their investment journey, while taking a long-term approach is always advisable.

Too risky by far?

While it is true that all investing involves risk, not all investments are similarly risky. So, anyone who is worried about losing money can take a more cautious approach by holding a greater proportion of less-risky assets in their portfolio.

Help at hand

If you’re new to investing then get in touch and we can help get you started. We’ll show you that investing is not just for the very wealthy but it does give everyone a chance to potentially secure a higher return on their hard-earned cash.

¹¹HSBC, 2022

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Pensions round-up

How up to date are you with your pension? Here are a few things to consider.

How much is in your pension pot?

According to research¹², three quarters of UK adults don’t know how much is in their pension pot. This figure rises to 79% of 55 to 64-year-olds who say they can’t put a figure on the value of their pension – especially worrying as this is a crucial stage for retirement planning. The research highlighted that women (81%) are more likely than men (68%) not to know how much they have accumulated in pensions saving.

Consider the gender gap

Research¹³ has again found a widening of the gender pension gap from the age of 35. The gap between women’s and men’s contributions for 35 to 39-year-olds is 21%, up from 18% in the previous year. Other research¹⁴ has highlighted how pension inequality is exacerbated for minority women, with over half (54%) of Black women saying they don’t have any retirement savings, compared to 40% of South Asian women and 35% of White women.

State Pension passes £10,000, but watch the tax

There was a welcome boost to pensioners’ incomes in April. The single-tier State Pension is now £203.85 a week or £10,600.20 a year. Those in receipt of the basic State Pension now get £156.20 a week, which may be topped up further by the Additional State Pension.

However, the freezing of the Income Tax personal allowance since 2021-22 means that the State Pension takes up 84% of the allowance, meaning pensioners will only need to earn £1,969.80 before they start paying Income Tax.

¹²Standard Life

¹³Aviva

¹⁴Scottish Widows 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

How does age affect your life insurance?

Age is a key factor in determining cost when you take out life insurance. Generally, the younger you are when you purchase a policy, the less expensive your regular premiums will be, because younger people are statistically less likely to die than older people, so the risk to the insurer is lower.

Assessing the risks

Insurers consider how likely it is that they will have to pay out a claim if you were to die during the term of the policy. As you age, the cost of new life insurance cover generally increases because the likelihood of death increases. This is especially true for people who have developed health issues or who engage in risky behaviours such as extreme sports or smoking.

For example, a 25-year-old non-smoker in good health is likely to pay significantly less for the same level and duration of cover than a 65-year-old smoker with a history of health problems. Insurers will also consider your age when determining the length of the policy term, with longer terms generally being available to younger people. Many insurance companies offer a maximum term of around 40 years, but maximum age limits can vary.

It’s not all about age

Your age is just one factor that will affect the cost. The insurance company will also consider your overall health, lifestyle, occupation, family medical history and the length of policy you require.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Your retirement – don’t do it a disservice

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that 90% of those currently in their 30s and 40s are saving less than they need to if they want to have a decent standard of living in retirement. Whilst the IFS researchers found that the current generation of pensioners is doing better than any before it, they also concluded that future generations are unlikely to fare as well.

Saving enough

IFS found that many employees are saving very little for retirement; 60% of middle-earning private sector employees who contribute to a pension are saving less than 8% of their earnings. Fewer than one-in-five self-employed workers save into a pension at all.

Paul Johnson, IFS Director, commented, “Despite the number of self-employed people growing considerably, many fewer of them are saving in a pension. Most private sector workers are left having to manage considerable risks – not least over how long their retirement will be – which for many will be incredibly difficult to balance well.”

When can I retire?

Although current rules let you take money from your pension at age 55 (57 from 2028), you may not have enough in your pension pot to make this a viable option. Discussing your options with us can give you the bigger picture and help you to be realistic with your plans – even small contributions, made regularly, can help boost your pension pot and you’ll get tax relief too.

So, whatever your circumstances, we can help you to plan for an enjoyable and fulfilling retirement.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

The importance and value of financial advice today

There are clearly a variety of reasons why people utilise the services of a financial adviser, but among the key motivating factors is undoubtedly the peace of mind professional advice affords to clients. And, in challenging times like these, it is clearly not difficult to understand why that particular benefit is deemed so important.

Peace of mind

A recent survey¹⁵ sought to ascertain the main reasons why investors seek the expertise of a financial adviser and it found that more than half of those that use one did so for peace of mind. In contrast, just a third said they used an adviser due to their own lack of financial expertise, while less than a fifth did so because of time constraints.

Soft factors are important

The research also asked investors which aspects of advice they place most value on, with two-thirds saying investment returns were critical and just over four in ten attributing value to tax management efficiency. Interestingly, however, the study also found that a number of soft factors were equally, if not more, important to investors. For instance, half of respondents said they valued the ability to plan how they will attain their financial goals.

Support key in difficult times

The value of support provided by an adviser tends to be accentuated during challenging economic times when clients typically need greater reassurance and the confidence required to maintain a long-term outlook. During such periods, for example, advisers perform a vital role by ensuring clients

do not fall into the trap of ‘selling low’ or ‘buying high.’

Avoiding expensive mistakes

This latter point perhaps highlights the true value gained from using a financial adviser, which is that it helps clients avoid making costly mistakes. In essence, value therefore seems to stem less from picking the best investments and more from constantly making smart decisions across a range of issues, whether that be: tax, cost or income management, asset allocation, portfolio rebalancing, or withdrawal strategies.

¹⁵Hymans Robertson, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this newsletter is based on our current understanding of taxation and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Taxation depends on individual circumstances as well as tax law and HMRC practice which can change.

The information contained within this newsletter is for information only purposes and does not constitute financial advice. The purpose of this newsletter is to provide technical and general guidance and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation or advice.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate advice on deposit accounts and some forms of tax advice.

All details are correct at time of writing – June 2023.

Blog

Financial health is financial wealth.

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UK economic growth forecast upgraded

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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UK growth stronger than expected

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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Prospect of rate cut moves closer.

Financial health is financial wealth.

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OBR forecasts

Cost-of-living measures

Personal taxation, savings and pensions

Business measures

Property taxation

Public services

Other key points

Closing comments

All details are believed to be correct at the time of writing (6 March 2024)

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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Survey suggests recession already over

Official statistics released last month showed the UK economy fell into recession during the second half of last year, although more recent survey data does suggest the recession could already be over.

High interest rates ‘under review’

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) once again kept interest rates at a 16-year high, although policymakers did signal they were open to the possibility of lowering rates for the first time since the pandemic.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of February, markets closed in mixed territory as investors processed a raft of data including US inflation, jobless claims and UK earnings.

Wage growth slows again

Earnings statistics published last month showed that nominal pay is now rising at the weakest pace for more than a year with survey data suggesting this decline looks set to continue.

Retail sales rebound in January

The latest batch of retail sales statistics suggest consumers have recovered some of their appetite for spending, with much stronger than expected growth in sales volumes recorded at the start of the new year.

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 March 2024)

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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UK economy rebounds in November

Official statistics show the economy returned to growth in November, although analysts believe it remains a close call as to whether or not the UK will once again manage to avoid a recession.

Surprise uptick in inflation rate

Last month’s release of consumer price statistics revealed a small increase in the UK headline rate of inflation, bucking analysts’ expectations for a further easing in price pressures.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Major global indices were mixed at the end of January. On the last trading day of the month the FTSE 100 lost ground ahead of imminent interest rate decisions in the UK and US.

Government borrowing lower than expected

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed a smaller-than-expected budget deficit providing the Chancellor with more room for manoeuvre as he prepares to deliver his Spring Statement in March.

Retail sales fall sharply

Data released last month by ONS revealed that the UK retail sector suffered its sharpest decline in sales volumes for almost three years.

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 February 2024)

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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Economy stages partial rebound

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Jobs market continues to cool

Retail sales in autumnal fall

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 November 2023 )

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

I want to exit my business leaving it in safe hands

I want to set my children up for financial security

To enjoy my retirement

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

Growth stronger than expected

Inflationary pressures set to fall

Resilient economic growth

Diversification is key

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Striking a balance

While recent financial challenges have taken their toll on everyone’s pockets, it comes as no surprise that parents are putting concerns about their children’s finances above their own, as highlighted in a recent survey of advisers1.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

IHT goes mainstream

Don’t go it alone

UK economic growth
forecast upgraded

While recent financial challenges have taken their toll on everyone’s pockets, it comes as no surprise that parents are putting concerns about their children’s finances above their own, as highlighted in a recent survey of advisers¹.

Three years ahead of schedule, FTSE 350 companies have met the target of achieving 40% female board representation, according to the latest FTSE Women Leaders Review⁶.