economic update

Economic Review – February 2025

Georgia Turner blog Advisor, Blog, economic growth, economic update, economy, investments, pensions, small business

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Data released last month by the Office
for National Statistics (ONS) revealed
that the UK economy unexpectedly grew
in the final three months of last year,
although more recent survey evidence
still points to a sluggish outlook.
The latest gross domestic product
(GDP) statistics showed that economic
output rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter
of 2024, after flatlining across the previous
three-month period. While the figure still
only represents a relatively lacklustre rate
of expansion, it was significantly stronger
than economists had been expecting, with
the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll
predicting a 0.1% contraction during the
final three months of the year.
A monthly breakdown showed that the
final quarter GDP figure was lifted by a
strong performance in December, which
saw a 0.4% expansion. This reflected
robust service sector growth, with ONS
noting that wholesalers, film distributors,
pubs and bars all did particularly well,
while machinery manufacturers
and pharmaceutical companies performed
strongly too. In addition, however,
it was noted that December’s growth
relied on government spending and a
potentially temporary build-up in firms’
inventories.
Data from a recently released economic
survey also suggests growth in the
first two months of 2025 has been tepid.
February’s flash headline growth indicator
from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 50.5
from 50.6 in January, leaving the index
only marginally above the 50.0 no change
threshold, implying the UK economy has
seen little growth so far this year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief
Business Economist Chris Williamson
said, “Early PMI survey data for February
indicate that business activity remained
largely stalled. While marginal output
growth was eked out in February, order
books deteriorated at a rate not seen
since August 2023 to hint at likely cuts to
business activity in the coming months
unless demand revives.”

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Economic Review – December 2024

Georgia Turner blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, small business

Please find below our Economic Review for December 2024

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SFFS Economic Review_Dec 24

Headline inflation at eight-month high

Release of the latest inflation statistics showed consumer prices are now rising at their fastest rate since March 2024, while last month also saw Bank of England (BoE) policymakers become more divided over the need to cut interest rates.

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current

month with the same period a year earlier – rose from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November. ONS said the rise was primarily driven by an increase in motor fuel and clothing prices, which was only partially offset by a drop in air fares.

November’s CPI rise was, though, in line with expectations expressed in a Reuters poll of economists. Additionally, there

was some relief in relation to underlying price pressures, with services inflation – a measure closely monitored by the BoE – remaining unchanged at 5.0%.

The latest decision of the BoE’s

interest-rate setting body was announced a day after the inflation release, with the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting by a 6-3 majority to maintain Bank Rate at 4.75%. The three dissenting

voices each preferred an immediate 0.25 percentage point reduction in order to boost growth, but the six-strong majority, which included BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, expressed concern about wage growth and ‘inflation persistence.’

Commenting after announcing the Committee’s decision, Mr Bailey said he still believed the path for interest rates was “downwards.” However, he added, “We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year.”

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for early next month, with the outcome of the Committee’s deliberations due to be announced on 6 February.

Financial health is financial wealth.

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Economic Summary – November 2024

Georgia Turner blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, small business

Please find below, our Economic review for November 2024

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SFFS Economic Review_Nov 24

Interest rates set to fall more gradually

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for only the second time since 2020 but also warned future reductions were likely to be more gradual due to the prospect of inflation creeping higher next year.

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 6 November, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points. This took Bank Rate down to 4.75%.

Commenting after announcing the news, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggested rates were likely to “continue to fall gradually from here” although he did caution that they would not be reduced “too quickly or by too much.” Mr Bailey was also at pains to emphasise the word “gradual” and added that the reason for such an approach was that “there are a lot of risks out there in the world at large and also domestically.”

Alongside the rate announcement, the Governor unveiled the BoE’s latest economic forecast which takes account of the Chancellor’s Budget measures. The updated projections suggest the policies announced in the Budget are likely to boost the headline rate of inflation by almost half a percentage point at its peak in just over two years’ time and result in it taking a year longer for inflation to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

The latest inflation data, which was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) two weeks after the MPC announcement, revealed that the annual headline rate jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October. While this sharp increase was largely driven by October’s energy price hike, the figure did come in slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations. This overshoot, combined with the Governor’s comments, has undoubtedly increased the prospect of interest rates remaining unchanged following the MPC’s final meeting of the year on 19 December.

Financial health is financial wealth.

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Economic Review – January 2024

Jenny Procter blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, inflation, Interest Rates, investments, small business

UK economy rebounds in November

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Official statistics show the economy returned to growth in November, although analysts believe it remains a close call as to whether or not the UK will once again manage to avoid a recession.

Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November following a contraction of a similar magnitude during the previous month. ONS said the services sector led the rebound, with Black Friday providing a boost to retailers, warehousing and couriers, while car leasing and computer games firms also enjoyed a buoyant month.

Despite November’s bounce back, ONS noted that the longer-term picture remains one of little growth over the past year. Indeed, output actually shrank by 0.2% in the three months to the end of November, and the statistics agency said a contraction or even flat data in December could lead to a second successive quarter of falling output, and thereby tip the economy into a shallow technical recession.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released towards the end of last month, however, paints a more positive picture with business confidence rising to its highest level since last May. The preliminary headline economic growth indicator also rose, up from 52.1 in December to 52.5 in January, beating analysts’ expectations and pointing to a stronger than expected start to 2024 for the UK economy.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “UK business activity growth accelerated for a third straight month in January, according to early PMI survey data, marking a promising start to the year. The survey data point to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of 0.2% after a flat fourth quarter, therefore skirting recession and showing signs of renewed momentum.”

Surprise uptick in inflation rate

Last month’s release of consumer price statistics revealed a small increase in the UK headline rate of inflation, bucking analysts’ expectations for a further easing in price pressures.

Data published by ONS showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – stood at 4.0% in December. This was up from November’s 3.9% figure and was also higher than the 3.8% consensus forecast from a Reuters poll of economists.

ONS said the increase, which represented the first inflation uptick in 10 months, was partly driven by a sharp rise in tobacco prices due to duty increases. There were also material upward contributions from the recreation, airfare and clothing sectors, although these were partially offset by a fall in food inflation with prices in this sector still rising but at a much lower rate than in the comparable period last year.

Analysts typically expect January’s inflation rate to rise as a result of base effects and there are a number of notable risks to the outlook particularly relating to disruption of shipping in the Red Sea. However, most economists are still predicting the downward trajectory will resume with potentially large declines forecast this spring.

Capital Economics, for instance, recently suggested CPI inflation could drop below 2% by April. The independent research firm also said this could result in the UK’s pace of price growth actually breaching the 2% mark before both the US and Eurozone.

While December’s inflation rise did dent market expectations of an early cut in interest rates, analysts do still typically expect the Bank of England to sanction a series of rate reductions this year. Indeed, a recent Reuters poll found that just over half of economists expect the first cut to be sanctioned before mid-2024.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Major global indices were mixed at the end of January. On the last trading day of the month the FTSE 100 lost ground ahead of imminent interest rate decisions in the UK and US.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 7,630.57, a loss of 1.33%, while the mid cap orientated FTSE 250 closed January 1.68% lower on 19,357.95. The FTSE AIM closed on 754.75, a loss of 1.12% in the month.

On 31 January, the Federal Reserve decided to retain interest rates for another month, whilst making it clear that it needs to see more progress on inflation before reducing borrowing costs. The Dow closed the month up 1.22% on 38,150.30, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed January up just over 1% on 15,164.01. At month end the broader market came under pressure as technology stocks failed to live up to expectations.

Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month 2.80% higher, on 4,648.40. The Nikkei 225 ended January on 36,286.71, up 8.43%. During the month, Japan’s benchmark index broke past the 35,000 mark, for the first time since February 1990.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.27 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Gold closed the month trading around $2,053 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 1.21%. Brent crude closed January trading at around $80 a barrel, a monthly gain of 4.87%. Oil posted its first monthly gain since September.

32Index Value (31/01/24) Movement since 29/12/23

FTSE 100 7,630.57 -1.33%

FTSE 250 19,357.95 -1.68%

FTSE AIM 754.75 -1.12%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,648.40 +2.80%

NASDAQ Composite 15,164.01 +1.02%

Dow Jones 38,150.30 +1.22%

Nikkei 225 36,286.71 +8.43%

Government borrowing lower than expected

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed a smaller-than-expected budget deficit providing the Chancellor with more room for manoeuvre as he prepares to deliver his Spring Statement in March.

ONS data showed government borrowing fell to £7.8bn in December, nearly half the level predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. This left the fiscal year-to-date total at £119bn, almost £5bn below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November forecast produced for the Autumn Statement, principally as a result of lower than anticipated inflation reducing debt interest payments.

Prior to release of the data, the Chancellor had hinted at potential pre-election tax cuts when he delivers his Spring Budget on 6 March. Speaking during a visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said he wanted to move in the direction of cutting taxes and noted that countries with lower taxes “are more dynamic, more competitive and generate more money for public services.”

Analysis released late last month by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, however, suggests the next government is likely to face the toughest challenge since the 1950s to bring down the country’s high debt burden. The economic think tank also warned that tax cuts now could compound the problem.

Retail sales fall sharply

Data released last month by ONS revealed that the UK retail sector suffered its sharpest decline in sales volumes for almost three years.

Official retail sales statistics showed sales volumes fell by 3.2% in December; this figure was worse than all predictions in a Reuters poll of economists with the consensus forecast pointing to a 0.5% fall. The monthly decline was also the largest since January 2021 when the reintroduction of pandemic restrictions heavily impacted sales. While ONS did say people appeared to have shopped earlier this year in order to take advantage of Black Friday sales, they also noted evidence of consumers spending less on gifts while food sales also notably declined in the run-up to Christmas.

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests the retail environment remains extremely challenging with year-on-year sales volumes in January falling at the fastest pace since the pandemic. The survey also found that retailers anticipate a similar rate of contraction in February.

CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “Retailers reported a further deterioration in activity at the start of 2024. Looking ahead, demand conditions in the sector will remain challenging as higher interest rates continue to feed through to mortgage payments and household incomes.”

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 February 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission

Financial health is financial wealth.

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Your Finance Matters – Q1 Winter 2024

Jenny Procter blog budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, inflation, Interest Rates, investments, Markets, pensions

Preparing portfolios for resilience in 2024

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The past few years have been challenging for investors with a series of unforeseen events and rising geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on global markets and, as a new year dawns, many issues remain unresolved. However, while such times are disconcerting for investors, the best way to achieve financial empowerment is by sticking to a sound strategic plan that optimises investment decisions and thereby tackles any potential issues head on.

Geopolitical risk

Although it may sometimes feel we are living through unprecedented times, geopolitical risk is not a new phenomenon – it has always been a feature of the investment landscape. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, the Middle East conflict, however, are both clearly major events most people did not foresee. And, when such events do occur, even the most well-informed investors find it difficult to accurately predict their impact on markets and investment portfolios.

Economic prospects

The global economy is currently in a relatively precarious position with the long-term consequences of the pandemic, war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation hindering prospects. The International Monetary Fund’s assessment, for example, produced just before October’s Middle East conflict erupted, points to an easing of growth across advanced economies this year, while China looks set to experience its slowest growth rate for years.

Investment pragmatism

While geopolitical events need to be closely monitored, investors must also be disciplined with any changes to investment strategy based on hard facts rather than knee-jerk reactions to the latest news headlines. The key to successful investing is undoubtedly to focus on long-term objectives and mitigate any potential risks by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio spread across different asset classes, industries and geographical regions.

New year, new opportunities

While geopolitical tensions are expected to present ongoing challenges, as 2024 unfolds new investment opportunities will inevitably become available. We’ll be on hand throughout the year to help you make the most of any opportunities, by carefully repositioning your portfolio and ensuring it remains firmly aligned with your financial objectives.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Global dividends – encouraging growth?

A new study¹ analysing global dividend trends has highlighted that, in the third quarter of last year, 89% of companies chose to maintain their dividend levels or raise them. Despite this, it was noted that during the quarter, global dividends reduced by 0.9% (on a headline basis) to total $421.9bn.

The underlying growth of dividends, paid by the world’s 1,200 largest firms measured by market capitalisation, was recorded at 0.3% in Q3 2023; this follows adjustments for the strengthening US dollar and for special dividends. Interestingly, the overall growth rate was ‘significantly impacted’ by a diminutive number of large dividend cuts; the report noted that this ‘masked encouraging growth across the wider market.’ If you exclude the two largest dividend reductions, for example, underlying growth was 5.3%.

From a year-on-year perspective, the 2023 headline forecast has been reduced from $1.64trn to $1.63trn, also reflective of reduced special dividends and a stronger US dollar, and ‘not a cause for concern,’ according to the report. Head of Global Equity Income at Janus Henderson, Ben Lofthouse, signalled that, “dividend growth from companies generally remains strong across a wide range of sectors and regions,” adding that the data highlights “a globally diversified income portfolio has natural stabilisers,” as sectors in ascendance are “able to counteract those with declining dividends,” before concluding, “Dividends are typically much less volatile than earnings over time, providing comfort in times of economic uncertainty.”

¹Janus Henderson, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

In the news

Who wants to be an (ISA) millionaire?

The number of ISA millionaires – i.e. people who have built up a tax-free pot of £1m or more by investing in stocks and shares ISAs – has almost quintupled since 2017, with the figure now standing at 2,760². With the first ISAs introduced in 1999 aimed at encouraging more people to save, the data certainly suggests the objective is being satisfied for an increasing number, with the most recent data suggesting around 11.8 million adults were subscribed to an ISA in 2021/22, making £66.9bn deposits in that tax year.

More people choose living inheritances

There has been an increase in the number of people who are choosing to gift significant sums of money to beneficiaries whilst they are still alive – otherwise known as a ‘living inheritance.’ One in 10 respondents to the Great British Retirement Survey 2023³ said they had given a living inheritance in the past three years. This increased to 15% amongst over-65s.

One million more over-65s still at work

There are now nearly a million more people over the age of 65 in the UK labour market compared with the number still at work in the year 2000⁴. This is according to the Centre for Ageing Better, which has calculated that 976,000 workers over the age of 65 and 3.1 million aged 50-64 have been added to the workforce since the Millennium. It is thought that the UK’s ageing population, in addition to changes in the State Pension age, are mostly responsible for the increasing numbers of older workers in the UK’s labour force over the past few decades.

²HMRC, 2023

³Interactive Investor, 2023

⁴Centre for Ageing Better, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

The financial pitfalls that primarily affect women

Research⁵ has shone a spotlight on the financial challenges that prevent women from accumulating the same wealth as their male counterparts.

The report found that having children continues to have a disproportionately large impact on women’s finances, as do other life events such as the menopause.

The findings

Amongst the report’s findings were the following statistics:

A quarter of women continue paying into their pension at the same rate during parental leave, vs 70% of men

Caring responsibilities (outside of childcare) have financially impacted nearly half of women

One in 20 menopausal women have quit work due to their symptoms

Only 55% of women return to work full time after their first child, compared to 90% of men.

Of course, no two women are the same and each will face different challenges on her journey to financial wellbeing. However, these statistics show that there are common threads here. Women continue to take the lion’s share of caring responsibilities, taking them out of the workplace and reducing their financial security not only in the present, but as they approach retirement as well.

Let’s do something about it – together

Despite the financial challenges women face, they remain less likely than men to seek professional financial advice⁶. As we move into 2024, make a New Year’s resolution – let this be the year that you empower yourself to succeed and get your finances on track for a prosperous future.

⁵AJ Bell, 2023

⁶Canada Life, 2022

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

The sophisticated scammers targeting YOU

According to a study from NatWest⁷, seven in 10 people have been targeted by scams over the last 12 months. Vulnerabilities brought on by cost-of-living challenges have likely contributed to the high numbers.

Sadly, 13% of people have fallen prey to such scams, which are growing in both number and sophistication – targeting young and old – no one is immune.

Avoid, avoid, avoid

To avoid a scam, you’ve first got to know what you’re looking for. So, here’s a list of the most common scams used over the past year and the proportion of people who were targeted:

Phishing scams (37%)

Fake emails or calls from organisations purporting to be from legitimate companies, asking you to provide personal or private data.

Trusted organisation scams (21%)

Criminals contact their victims pretending to be trusted organisations such as HMRC, the police or their bank, saying there’s something wrong with their account, they need to pay a fine, or similar.

Refund scams (13%)

Similar to the above, but the criminals instead use a potential refund or rebate to tempt victims into sharing personal or banking information.

Other scams include messages purporting to be from friends/family asking for money (12%), get rich quick scams (12%) and purchase scams (9%).

Keep yourself (and your money) safe

Staying vigilant and keeping your guard up around unsolicited calls and messages is key to protecting yourself from scams. Remember:

If something seems too good to be true, it probably is

Your bank will never ask you to disclose your full PIN or password

Don’t respond to unsolicited calls, emails or texts, or open links if you feel suspicious

We’re always here to help if you’re ever unsure about something.

Always be alert to the risk of fraud – double check any details to ensure people or organisations are who you think they are. Stay vigilant, protect yourself – knowledge is power.

⁷NatWest, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

Are you due a midlife MOT?

Just to be clear, we’re not talking about your physical health here (that’s the doctor’s remit). We’re talking about a check-up to assess your financial wellbeing.

And we’re asking because nearly one in six people aged between 45 and 54 are now making significant financial sacrifices to ensure their pension pots are up to scratch for retirement⁸. At the same time, they are still juggling a multitude of other financial responsibilities, including childcare and mortgages, at a time when cost of living pressures persist.

Just like you’d go to the doctor for a check-up if you were feeling a bit run down, a financial MOT could be just what you need at this crucial time in your life to ensure your finances are working for you.

Here are some key aspects to think about:

Retirement planning – as you approach retirement, now is the time to take stock of your pension savings to ensure you’re on track for your goals

Protection – your health needs can change as you get older, so a review of your protection cover could be a good idea to ensure you and your family are properly protected

Debt management – a review can help you assess your current debts and work out how to best pay them off

Investments – are your investments working for you? Can your portfolio be rebalanced to better align with your risk profile and long-term financial objectives?

Estate planning – now is also an excellent time to review your long-term plans for passing your wealth onto the next generation and to make a Will and Lasting Power of Attorney (LPA).

Here to help

If a midlife MOT sounds like it might benefit you, then please do give us a call – we’re on hand to help you review each aspect of your finances and develop a comprehensive financial plan.

⁸Phoenix Group, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Planning for a secure financial future

Over the past 12 months, the cost-of-living crisis has put significant pressure on household budgets and knocked many people’s confidence in their future financial prospects. Research, however, shows that planning is a key driver of positivity about our financial futures; so, as a new year dawns, now seems the perfect time to take stock of your finances and formulate a plan to help you achieve your retirement goals.

Plan, plan, plan

Although decisions around retirement are arguably the most critical people have to make during their whole lives, research⁹ suggests only half of over-50s with pension entitlements other than the State Pension have actually formulated a detailed plan. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it also found that those with a plan were much more confident about securing a comfortable retirement than those who do not have one.

Gender gap

The research found clear evidence of a gender gap with men generally more confident about their prospects for a comfortable retirement than their female counterparts. It also found that the

cost-of-living crisis has been a key driver of low confidence, with half of the sample stating that it has either slightly or significantly worsened their chances of a comfortable retirement.

Triple default trap

People without a plan are also more likely to get stuck with their default pension settings. Recent years are thought to have seen a sharp rise in the number of triple defaulters who ‘set and forget’ their pension choices, with millions of auto-enrolled 32-40 year olds failing to update their contributions, investment choices or target retirement age. Even relatively small tweaks to one or more of these default choices could potentially boost a pension pot by thousands of pounds.

Here to support you

The evidence clearly shows that formulating a plan is the key to boosting confidence in your financial future. So, let’s kick off 2024 on a positive footing ‒ get in touch and we’ll help you develop a plan capable of securing the rewarding retirement you deserve.

⁹Nucleus Financial Platforms, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Prospects of stronger economic growth

As we enter a new year, the global economy sits in a relatively precarious position, with the long-term consequences of the pandemic, as well as ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions all hindering growth prospects. While such times can appear daunting for investors, the key to successful investing actually remains the same: focus on long-term goals and mitigate potential risks by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio.

Global recovery remains slow

In its latest assessment of economic prospects, produced just before the Middle East conflict began, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dampened its baseline global growth forecast for the coming year. The international soothsayer is now predicting growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024; all three figures are below the long-term average global growth rate of 3.8%.

Challenges ahead but growth prospects

The IMF noted that the current weak growth outlook allied with heightened uncertainty, still-elevated global inflation and limited fiscal space, do pose a series of challenges for policymakers. However, the report also highlighted some more upbeat aspects including disinflation, rebuilt buffers to help manage future shocks and the prospect of stronger, more balanced growth.

Diversification is key

In the current economic climate, strong research capabilities are clearly vital and that is our strength. It enables us to formulate and develop an effective investment plan tailored specifically to your needs, and helps us ensure you continue to hold a well-diversified, balanced portfolio firmly aligned to your long-term financial objectives.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this newsletter is based on our current understanding of taxation and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases

of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Taxation depends on individual circumstances as well as tax law and HMRC practice which can change.

The information contained within this newsletter is for information only purposes and does not constitute financial advice. The purpose of this newsletter is to provide technical and general guidance and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation or advice.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate advice on deposit accounts and some forms of tax advice.

All details are correct at time of writing – December 2023.

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

Economic Review October 2023 – Inflation rate holds steady

Jenny Procter blog Blog, budget, economic growth, Economic review, economic update, inflation, Interest Rates, investments

Download your copy here

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor has described the latest batch of inflation statistics as “quite encouraging,” adding that he expects a “noticeable drop” in the headline rate when the next set of data is released later this month.

Figures recently published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – held steady at 6.7% in September. This ended a run of three consecutive monthly declines and came in slightly ahead of analysts expectations’ of a further 0.1% fall.

ONS pointed out that the figures did include the first monthly decline in food price levels for two years. However, a sharp rise in fuel costs between August and September was the main factor that prevented the CPI annual rate from declining again. Despite remaining unchanged, though, September’s update does leave CPI below the level forecast by the BoE in early August.

The latest release did also report a fall in core inflation, which excludes volatile elements such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, although this decrease was again less than economists had predicted. This measure of inflation, which is typically viewed as a better guide to longer-term price trends, fell to 6.1% in September from 6.2% in August.

Commenting on the consumer prices data release in an interview with the Belfast Telegraph, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, “It was not far off what we were expecting. Core inflation fell slightly from what we were expecting and that’s quite encouraging.” The Governor also stressed that he expects to see a “noticeable drop” in the CPI rate when the next set of figures are published in mid-November as last year’s sharp hike in energy prices drops out of the annual comparison.

Economy stages partial rebound

Growth statistics released last month by ONS showed the UK economy returned to growth in August following a sharp decline in July, although forward-looking indicators continue to suggest the outlook remains uncertain.

According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the UK economy grew by 0.2% in August following a downwardly revised fall of 0.6% in July. ONS said August’s modest bounce back was partly driven by the education sector, which recovered from two days of industrial action the previous month, along with a boost from computer programmers and engineers.

While analysts typically described the latest GDP data as ‘lacklustre,’ August’s figures are thought to have reduced the possibility of a recession beginning as early as the July to September period. Indeed, ONS noted that the economy would only need to have grown by 0.2% during September to avoid it contracting across the third quarter as a whole.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index released towards the end of last month, however, does suggest that business activity across the private sector continues to weaken. The preliminary composite headline Index stood at 48.6 in October, a marginal increase from September’s figure of 48.5, but below the 50 threshold that denotes a contraction in private sector output for the third month running.

Commenting on the survey’s findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The UK economy continued to skirt with recession in October, as the increased cost of living, higher interest rates and falling exports were widely blamed on a third month of falling output. The overall pace of decline remains only modest, but gloom about the outlook has intensified in the uncertain economic climate, boding ill for output in the coming months. A recession, albeit only mild at present, cannot be ruled out.”

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

As October drew to a close, investors focused on major central bank meetings with the Bank of England and Federal Reserve due to meet in early November.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed October on 7,321.72, a loss of 3.76%. At month end losses in some mining and energy stocks weighed, impacted by declines in commodity prices following weaker-than-expected factory activity data in China. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 closed down 6.54% on 17,083.05, while the FTSE AIM closed the month on 679.85, a loss of 6.38%. On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 ended October on 4,061.12, a loss of 2.72%.

At month end, Asian equities struggled as disappointing activity data from China reignited some concerns over the resilience of the world’s second largest economy. In Japan the Nikkei 225 closed the month on 30,858.85, down 3.14%.

A raft of new data has highlighted resilience in the US economy. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched as an indicator of how long interest rates are likely to remain elevated. The Dow Jones Index closed the month down 1.36% on 33,052.87, while the NASDAQ closed the month down 2.78% on 12,851.24.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.14 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.21 against sterling and at $1.05 against the euro.

Safe haven demand as a result of the Middle Eastern conflict saw gold prices trading higher in the month. Gold closed October trading at around $1,996 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of around 6.76%. With traders wary of any new developments in the conflict and concerns over slowing fuel demand in China weighing, Brent crude closed the month trading at around $85, a loss over the month of 7.41%.

Index Value (31/10/23) Movement since 29/09/23

FTSE 100 7,321.72 -3.76%

FTSE 250 17,083.05 -6.54%

FTSE AIM 679.85 -6.38%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,061.12 -2.72%

NASDAQ Composite 12,851.24 -2.78%

Dow Jones 33,052.87 -1.36%

Nikkei 225 30,858.85 -3.14%

Jobs market continues to cool

Last month’s release of labour market statistics suggests there has been a further softening in the UK jobs market, although earnings data did reveal average pay is now rising above inflation for the first time in almost two years.

The latest figures released by ONS were dubbed ‘experimental estimates’ produced under a new calculation that attempts to account for low response rates to the labour force survey. The new data showed that, although the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.2% during the June to August period, the overall level of employment fell and the rate of economic inactivity rose.

In addition, the estimated total number of job vacancies dropped by 43,000 during the three months to September, the 15th consecutive reported decline. This reduced the number of vacancies to a two-year low of 988,000, although this figure is still significantly above pre-pandemic vacancy levels recorded in early 2020.

The latest earnings figures also revealed that regular pay rose at an annual rate of 7.8% in the June to August period, higher than the average inflation rate over the same three months. Furthermore, data revisions meant that wage growth actually outpaced inflation in the three months to July for the first time since October 2021.

Retail sales in autumnal fall

Official retail sales statistics reported a sharper than expected decline in sales volumes during September, while more recent survey evidence suggests the current trading environment remains extremely challenging.

Data published last month by ONS revealed that total retail sales volumes fell by 0.9% in September, a much larger decline than the 0.2% fall predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. ONS said it had been ‘a poor month for clothing stores’ with the unseasonable warm autumnal conditions reducing sales of colder weather gear, while the quick pace of price rises had deterred shoppers from buying ‘non-essential goods.’

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests sales remained weak last month, with retailers reporting the joint-worst level of sales volumes for October since records began in 1983. The survey also found that retailers do not anticipate a turnaround in fortunes this month, with cost-of-living concerns and higher interest rates expected to continue weighing on consumer spending.

Commenting on the findings, CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “As the festive period approaches, the retail sector remains in a perilous position. While slowing inflation should help to bolster households’ income in the coming months, retailers will continue to face headwinds from higher energy and borrowing costs.”

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 November 2023 )

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

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Economic Review – August 2023

Jenny Procter blog economic growth, economic resilience, Economic review, economic update, inflation, Interest Rates, Markets

Download your copy here

UK growth rate exceeds expectations

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that the UK economy grew more strongly than expected in June, although more recent survey data does suggest a renewed contraction looks ‘inevitable.’

Official data released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the economy grew by 0.5% in June. This figure was higher than any forecast submitted to a Reuters poll of economists, with the consensus prediction suggesting the economy would expand by just 0.2% across the month.

ONS said that June’s growth partly stemmed from the increased number of working days with the economy bouncing back from May’s extra Bank Holiday for the King’s Coronation. In addition, the warm weather provided a notable boost to trade in pubs and restaurants as well as activity in the construction sector.

June’s stronger than anticipated figure also resulted in the economy expanding across the second quarter as a whole. The increase of 0.2% between April and June again beat economists’ expectations with the consensus forecast from the Reuters poll pointing to a flat reading.

Data from a closely watched survey released towards the end of last month, however, suggests a third-quarter downturn looks increasingly likely. The preliminary headline reading from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 50.8 in July to 47.9 in August. This represents the weakest recorded figure for two and a half years and took the index below the 50 threshold that denotes a contraction in private sector output.

Commenting on the survey’s findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The fight against inflation is carrying a heavy cost in terms of heightened recession risks. A renewed contraction of the economy already looks inevitable, as an increasingly severe manufacturing downturn is accompanied by a further faltering of the service sector’s spring revival.”

Interest rates rise again

Early last month, the Bank of England (BoE) announced a further hike in its benchmark interest rate and warned that rates were likely to remain high for some time.

Following its latest meeting which concluded on 2 August, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a 6-3 majority to raise Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points. This was the 14th consecutive increase sanctioned by the MPC and took rates to a 15-year high of 5.25%.

Two of the committee’s dissenting voices – Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel – voted for a more significant hike, preferring a 0.5 percentage point rise in order to “lean more actively against inflation persistence.” The other dissenting member – Swati Dhingra – again voted for no change, warning that the risks of overtightening “had continued to build.”

Although this difference in opinion shows that individual members of the committee are likely to hold differing views on the future path of interest rates, the minutes to the meeting did stress that further monetary tightening may be required. They concluded, ‘The MPC will ensure that Bank Rate is sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term.’

On the day that he announced the decision, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that message saying “we might need to raise interest rates again.” The Governor added that it was “far too soon” to speculate about the timing of any cuts and that rates would not fall until there was “solid evidence” that rapid price rises are slowing.

The next MPC meeting is due to conclude on 20 September with the rate announcement scheduled for the following day. A recent Reuters poll found economists now typically expect another quarter-point hike to be sanctioned at that meeting with rates then peaking at 5.5%.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of August, major global stock markets closed the month in negative territory. European stock markets were mixed on the last trading day of the month, as key central bank policy meetings approached and investors processed regional inflation data.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed the month on 7,439.13, a loss of 3.38%. The mid cap focused FTSE 250 closed down 2.81% on 18,605.70, while the FTSE AIM closed August on 741.93, a loss during the month of 2.98%.

Across the pond, investors are awaiting the next batch of US employment data, which will provide a key indicator on the health of the economy and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate tightening measures. The Dow Jones Index closed the month down 2.36% on 34,721.91, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ closed the month down 2.17% on 14,034.97.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 finished the month on 32,619.34, down 1.67%. On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed August on 4,297.11, a loss of 3.90%.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.16 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Tightening physical supplies are supporting oil prices. Brent crude closed August trading at around $86, a gain over the month of 1.04%. Gold closed the month trading at around $1,942 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of around 1.44%.

Index Value (31/08/23) Movement since 31/07/23

FTSE 100 7,439.13 -3.38%

FTSE 250 18,605.70 -2.81%

FTSE AIM 741.93 -2.98%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,297.11 -3.90%

NASDAQ Composite 14,034.97 -2.17%

Dow Jones 34,721.91 -2.36%

Nikkei 225 32,619.34 -1.67%

Headline inflation rate declines

Official consumer price statistics have revealed a further fall in the UK headline rate of inflation, although the latest data also showed fresh signs of stickiness in terms of core inflation.

Figures released last month by ONS showed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – stood at 6.8% in July. While this was sharply lower than the previous month’s figure of 7.9%, the drop was exactly in line with forecasts.

ONS noted that falling gas and electricity prices had largely driven the decline as a change to the energy price cap came into force. Price rises for some staple food items including milk, butter, bread, eggs, cereal and fish also eased, although these dips were partially offset by a further rise in the cost of eating out, as well as a jump in flight, alcohol and tobacco prices.

Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile elements such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, however, failed to fall. July’s figure of 6.9% was unchanged from the previous month and slightly higher than the consensus prediction from the Reuters poll.

Wage growth hits record high

Earnings statistics published last month showed that nominal wage growth rose at a record rate in the three months to June, although more recent survey data does suggest pay deals may have started to cool.

According to the latest ONS figures, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 7.8% in the April to June period. This represents the strongest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001 and was significantly higher than the 7.4% rise predicted in a poll of economists.

Commenting on the data, ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan noted that wage growth is still not outstripping the pace of price rises. However, Mr Morgan did say that the latest figures show that real pay levels are now “recovering.”

The BoE has been closely monitoring wage growth for inflationary signs and the latest figures will undoubtedly have caused concern. Survey evidence, however, does point to a more recent slowdown – data from Adzuna, for example, shows average advertised salaries fell by 0.15% between June and July, while XpertHR figures show the median basic pay settlement in the three months to July dropped to 5.7% following six consecutive quarters at a record 6%.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for information only. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 September 2023).

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

UK inflation rate declines

Jenny Procter blog economic growth, Economic review, economic update, economy, inflation, Interest Rates

Download your copy here

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK inflation rate fell by more than expected in June, leading analysts to predict that interest rates are now likely to rise less sharply than previously feared.

The latest inflation statistics revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – stood at 7.9% in June. This was significantly below the previous month’s figure of 8.7% and also lower than the 8.2% consensus forecast from a Reuters poll of economists.

Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile elements such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco and is used by the Bank of England (BoE) to gauge underlying price pressures, also dropped by more than expected. Economists had predicted the core measure of price growth would remain at May’s three-decade high of 7.1%, but instead it dropped to 6.9%.

ONS noted that the largest downward pressure on June’s CPI rate came from petrol and diesel prices which declined by 23% compared to year earlier levels. The price of some other goods and services, however, continued to rise sharply with sugar up by 54% and transport insurance costs up by 48%.

Although the CPI inflation rate does now stand at its lowest level in over a year, the figure is still almost four times higher than the BoE’s 2% target. Economists therefore continue to expect the Bank to sanction further monetary tightening in the months ahead.

The peak in the current interest rate cycle, though, is now likely to be lower than forecasts had suggested prior to release of June’s inflation data. According to a recent Reuters poll, economists now typically expect Bank Rate to reach a high point of 5.75% during the final quarter of this year.

IMF upgrades economic growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2023 global growth forecast, but warned challenges remain and that the balance of risks continue to be ‘tilted to the downside’.

In its latest assessment of world economic prospects, the IMF said inflation was coming down and acute stress in the banking sector had receded. The international soothsayer predicts an overall global growth rate of 3.0% for 2023, lower than the 2022 figure of 3.5%, but 0.2 percentage points higher than its previous estimate produced in April.

The latest projections also included a significant UK upgrade, with the IMF now forecasting growth of 0.4% across 2023, a 0.7 percentage point increase from April’s figure. While this does mean the IMF is now predicting some growth, the UK is expected to be the second most sluggish of the G7 economies this year, with only Germany forecast a lower rate.

Meanwhile, the latest monthly growth figures released by ONS showed the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May, partly because of the extra bank holiday for the King’s Coronation reducing the number of working days in the month. The figure, however, was ahead of analysts’ expectations, while ONS noted that anything better than a 0.1% decline in June would result in the economy avoiding a contraction for the second quarter as a whole.

Survey data released towards the end of last month, though, does still point to a relatively weak outlook, with the preliminary reading from the S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index dropping to a six-month low of 50.7 in July. While the figure does remain just above the 50 threshold that denotes growth in private sector output, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson noted that forward-looking indicators “all point to growth weakening further in the months ahead”.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of July, stock indices across Europe finished the day in green following positive inflation readings in the bloc. London stocks ended firmer at close on Monday after news of higher-than-expected mortgage approval rates in the UK.

The FTSE 100 closed the month on 7,699.41, a gain of 2.23%, while the mid cap FTSE 250 closed up 3.95% on 19,143.76 and the FTSE AIM closed July on 764.72, a monthly gain of 1.49%.

In the US, earnings remain a key driver of markets. Wall Street’s main market gauges ended the day slightly higher to cap off a fifth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Index closed the month up 3.35% on 35,559.53, while the NASDAQ closed the month up 4.05% on 14,346.02.

On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed July on 4,471.31, a gain of 1.64%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed the month down 0.05% on 33,172.22.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.16 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.28 against sterling and at $1.10 against the euro.

Gold closed the month trading at $1,970.65 a troy ounce. Brent crude closed the month trading at around $85, a three-month high and its steepest monthly gain since January 2022, supported by signs of tightening global supply and rising demand through the rest of this year.

Index Value (31/07/23) Movement since 30/06/23

FTSE 100 7,699.41 2.23%

FTSE 250 19,143.76 3.95%

FTSE AIM 764.72 1.49%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,471.31 1.64%

NASDAQ Composite 14,346.02 4.05%

Dow Jones 35,559.53 3.35%

Nikkei 225 33,172.22 -0.05%

Budget deficit declines in June

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has again ruled out a rush to cut taxes despite the latest public sector finance statistics showing government borrowing for the first three months of the fiscal year was lower than expected.

ONS data released last month showed government borrowing in June totalled £18.5bn. While this represents the third-highest June ever recorded, it was £400m below the same month last year and lower than analysts’ expectations. It also left the fiscal year-to-date deficit £7.5bn below the most recent forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), with this downside surprise reflecting stronger than predicted tax receipts.

Analysts, however, still typically believe there remains little scope for potential tax cuts before next year’s general election. Reacting to the figures on the day the data was released, the Chancellor appeared to concur, saying, “Now more than ever we need to maintain discipline with the public finances.”

A separate report on fiscal risks published last month by the OBR also warned that the country’s public finances are currently in a ‘vulnerable position’. The report also stressed that, in the coming decades, government finances will come under growing pressure as an ageing society inevitably increases costs and reduces tax receipts.

Hot weather sparks retail sales rise

The latest official set of retail sales statistics revealed stronger than expected growth in sales volumes as the hottest June on record provided a boost to the retail sector.

According to ONS data published last month, total retail sales volumes rose by 0.7% in June. This growth in the quantity of goods bought by consumers was higher than May’s downwardly revised 0.1% monthly increase and also stronger than the 0.2% consensus forecast predicted in a Reuters poll of economists.

ONS said supermarkets were a key driver of June’s rise, with food sales benefitting from rising temperatures and a rebound after the coronation had disrupted spending patterns in May. The hotter weather also encouraged more people on to the high street, leading to both department stores and furniture shops enjoying a strong month.

Responding to the figures, British Retail Consortium Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said, “June’s sunshine gave retail sales growth a boost as customers readied themselves for the summer season. Nonetheless, consumer confidence remains fragile, and with households feeling the pinch from high inflation and rising interest rates they held back on making big ticket purchases. Retailers are hopeful that consumer confidence will improve over the coming months as inflation eases.”

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 August 2023)

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for information only. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

May 2023 Economic Review

Jenny Procter blog economic update, Interest Rates, Markets, Unemployment

Download your copy here.

UK growth forecasts upgraded

Revised projections released last month by both the Bank of England (BoE) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest the UK economy is now set to avoid recession this year.

The BoE’s latest forecast predicts the economy will grow by 0.25% across the whole of 2023, a significant upgrade from February’s prediction of a 0.5% contraction. This improved outlook reflects a number of factors, including stronger than anticipated global growth, lower energy prices and the fiscal support announced by the Chancellor in his Spring Budget.

Updated IMF figures also show the UK is now unlikely to enter recession, with the international soothsayer predicting a growth rate of 0.4% for 2023; in comparison, its previous forecast had suggested the economy would contract by 0.3% over the course of this year. The IMF said growth would be helped by ‘resilient demand ‘as well as falling energy prices and praised the UK authorities for taking ‘decisive and responsible steps in recent months.’

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), however, highlight how fragile the recovery remains with growth still sluggish. Although GDP across the first three months of 2023 did edge up by 0.1%, a similar tepid pace as achieved during the final quarter of last year, monthly data revealed an unexpectedly sharp drop in output during March, with GDP actually declining by 0.3% during the month.

Recently released data from the closely watched S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), though, does suggest growth has picked up in the second quarter. May’s preliminary headline reading came in at 53.9, lower than April’s one-year high of 54.9, but comfortably above the 50 threshold that denotes growth in private sector output. Indeed, S&P Global noted that their PMI readings were consistent with ‘GDP rising 0.4% in the second quarter.’

Interest rates rise again

**Last month, the BoE announced another hike in its benchmark interest rate and insisted it will ‘stay the course’ in its battle to bring down inflation.**

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 10 May, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a 7-2 majority to raise Bank Rate by a further 0.25 percentage points. This was the 12th consecutive increase, taking rates to 4.5%, their highest level in almost 15 years.

Commenting after announcing the decision, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey made it clear that the Bank’s next moves would depend on the trajectory of forthcoming data. However, Mr Bailey did stress that, “We have to stay the course to make sure inflation falls all the way back to the 2% target.”

The minutes to the meeting also warned that the Bank now believes inflation will remain higher for a longer period, largely as a result of food price inflation which is ‘likely to fall back more slowly than previously expected.’ Its latest forecast, which was published alongside the rate decision, suggests inflation will fall to 5.1% by the end of this year, significantly higher than its previous forecast of 3.9%.

ONS data published two weeks after the MPC’s announcement confirmed that the headline rate of inflation remains stubbornly high. While it did fall from 10.1% in March to 8.7% in April, as the extreme energy price hikes seen a year ago dropped out of the calculations, the figure was much higher than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of economists which had predicted a rate of 8.2%.

April’s inflation data surprise has undoubtedly increased the likelihood of further rate hikes in the coming months. The next decision is due to be announced on 22 June with analysts now typically expecting another 0.25 percentage point rise.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of May, global markets closed the month largely in negative territory, with investors awaiting the outcome of the key vote on the US debt ceiling. In addition, the latest economic data from China, which highlighted a further decline in manufacturing activity, also weighed on sentiment.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the month on 7,446.14, a loss of 5.39%, while the mid cap FTSE 250 closed down 3.62% on 18,722.90 and the FTSE AIM closed May on 782.77, a monthly loss of 5.68%.

In the US, the Dow Jones index closed the month down 3.49% on 32,908.27, while the NASDAQ closed the month up 5.80% on 12,935.28. On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed May on 4,218.04, a loss of 3.24%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed the month up 7.04%, on 30,887.88. The index recently reached historic highs in May, with market sentiment buoyed by the potential of the semiconductor and AI markets.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.16 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.23 against sterling and at $1.06 against the euro.

Brent crude closed the month trading at around $73 a barrel, a monthly loss of 8.60%. At month end, traders awaited news on progress of the US debt bill, digested the weak Chinese manufacturing data, and considered how the weakening growth could impact crude demand. Gold closed the month trading at $1,964.40 a troy ounce, a small monthly loss of 0.92%.

Index Value (31/05/23) Movement since 28/04/23

FTSE 100 7,446.14 -5.39%

FTSE 250 18,722.90 -3.62%

FTSE AIM 782.77 -5.68%

Euro Stoxx 50 4,218.04 -3.24%

NASDAQ Composite 12,935.28 +5.80%

Dow Jones 32,908.27 -3.49%

Nikkei 225 30,887.88 +7.04%

More optimistic outlook for retailers

Official retail sales statistics showed a slightly stronger-than-expected increase in sales volumes during April while survey evidence points to modestly rising levels of optimism within the retail sector.

The latest ONS retail sales figures revealed signs of consumer spending resilience, with volumes rising by 0.5% in April following March’s sharp decline when sales were hit by unusually wet weather. Furthermore, across the whole of the February-to-April period, sales volumes grew by 0.8% compared to the previous three months; this represents the largest increase recorded on this measure since August 2021.

Evidence from the recently released CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests the trading environment does remain challenging with sales volumes dipping in the year to May. Sales are expected to stabilise in June, however, and retailers generally expect to see a modest improvement in their business situation over the coming three months.

Commenting on the survey findings, CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “Looking ahead, there are some reasons for retailers to be more optimistic about the outlook. Consumer sentiment has been improving and households’ energy bills are set to decline from July. The resulting boost to incomes should help support retail sales going into the second half of this year.”

Unemployment rate edges higher

The latest batch of labour market statistics suggests a further softening in the jobs market with a rise in the rate of unemployment and another fall in the number of job vacancies.

ONS figures released last month showed that the unemployment rate during Q1 edged up to 3.9%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous three months. This was higher than the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists which had predicted the rate would hold steady at 3.8%.

In addition, the estimated total number of job vacancies fell by 55,000 during the three months to April, hitting its lowest level since mid-2021. This was the tenth consecutive decline, with ONS saying that companies continued to cite ‘economic pressures’ as a factor in holding back on recruitment.

The labour market update also reported the number of people not working due to long-term sickness at a new record high. Over two and a half million people are now not working due to health issues, with ONS saying the increase has been driven by a rise in mental health conditions among younger age groups, people suffering with back and neck pain, and a rise in post-viral fatigue.

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 June 2023).

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

Spring Budget 2023: A budget for growth

Jenny Procter blog budget, economic update

You can download this update here

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, delivered his first Spring Budget on 15 March declaring it was “A Budget for Growth.” The fiscal update included a range of new measures, some of which had been widely trailed prior to Budget day, in order to achieve growth “by removing obstacles that stop businesses investing; by tackling labour shortages that stop them recruiting; by breaking down barriers that stop people working; and by harnessing British ingenuity to make us a science and technology superpower.”

OBR forecasts

The Chancellor began his statement by unveiling the latest economic projections produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which he said showed the UK would meet the Prime Minister’s priorities to “halve inflation, reduce debt and get the economy growing.” In relation to the first priority, Mr Hunt said the latest OBR figures suggest inflation will fall from an average rate of 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023. This sharp decline is partly due to some of the Chancellor’s Budget measures, including the three-month extension to the household Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), which the government had confirmed earlier in the day.

Mr Hunt also said the OBR forecast suggests the UK economy will now avoid a technical recession this year (defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline) and then expand in each of the remaining years of the five-year forecast period. According to the updated figures, the economy is expected to shrink by 0.2% this year, a significant upgrade from last autumn’s forecast of a 1.4% contraction, with growth then predicted to hit 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, before easing back towards its medium-term potential growth rate of 1.75% by 2028.

The Chancellor’s growth strategy focuses on the four pillars ‘Everywhere, Enterprise, Employment and Education,’ as previously outlined in his Bloomberg speech in January.

Everywhere

Mr Hunt spoke about the government’s plans for ‘Levelling Up,’ including the launch of 12 new Investment Zones. Across these “12 potential Canary Wharfs,” £80m of support per zone will be available for skills, infrastructure and tax reliefs. Mr Hunt also mentioned specific projects selected for local investment, including:

£200m for local regeneration projects and £400m for new Levelling Up Partnerships across England
£8.8bn over the next five-year funding period for the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements
Up to £8.6m for the Edinburgh Festivals, as well as £1.5m for the repair of Cloddach Bridge, near Elgin, and £20m for the restoration of the Holyhead Breakwater in Anglesey
Up to £3m to extend the Tackling Paramilitarism Programme in Northern Ireland.

Enterprise

To provide the right conditions for businesses to succeed:

A ‘full expensing’ policy will apply from 1 April 2023 until 31 March 2026 to allow investment in IT, plant or machinery to be deducted in full and immediately from taxable profits
An increased rate of relief for loss-making R&D-intensive small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) – eligible companies will receive a £27 credit from HMRC for every £100 of R&D investment
An extension of higher reliefs for theatres, orchestras, museums and galleries for two further years

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) will receive £10m extra funding over two years
All of the recommendations from Sir Patrick Vallance’s review of pro-innovation regulation of digital technologies are accepted
£900m of funding for AI Research Resource and an exascale computer as well as a commitment to £2.5bn ten-year quantum research and innovation programme through the government’s new Quantum Strategy

Innovation Accelerators programme – £100m funding for 26 transformative R&D projects
AI Challenge Prize – £1 million prize every year for the next ten years to researchers that drive progress in critical areas of AI.

Employment

The Chancellor turned next to Employment, with a suite of new measures to “remove the barriers that stop people who want to from working.” To achieve this, he announced:

Mature workers

The expansion of the DWP’s ‘midlife’ MOT scheme, aiming to reach up to 40,000 individuals per year (up from the current 8,000)
New ‘Returnerships’ scheme to make existing skills programmes more accessible to older workers and help them upskill and retrain
A pension tax relief overhaul; see details in Personal Taxation and Pensions section.

People with long-term illnesses and disabilities

A white paper on disability benefits reform
The abolition of the Work Capability Assessment for disability benefits claimants
A new voluntary employment scheme for people with disabilities
£406m to increase support for working adults with mental health, musculoskeletal and cardiovascular problems.

Welfare recipients

An increase to the Administrative Earnings Threshold
A stronger sanctions regime for Universal Credit claimants.

Care leavers

A 50% increase in funding for the Staying Close programme
An increase in the Qualifying Care Relief threshold to £18,140 per year plus £375 to £450 per person cared for per week for 2023/24 and these thresholds will then be index-linked, representing a tax cut worth approximately £450 per year on average.

Education

Mr Hunt then turned to Education, stating that he wants to reform the childcare system, currently “one of the most expensive systems in the world.”

His new proposal will offer 30 free hours of childcare each week to pre-school-age children aged nine months or above in English households where both parents work. It will be phased in on the following timeline:

April 2024 – eligible two-year-olds will receive 15 hours of free childcare per week
September 2024 – qualifying children aged nine months to two years will receive 15 hours
September 2025 – eligible children aged nine months to three years will receive 30 hours.

Also, schools and local authorities will be funded to increase availability of wraparound care, to enable parents of school-age children to drop them off between 8am and 6pm.

To tackle the problem of unaffordable upfront costs, Mr Hunt also announced support for the 700,000 families on Universal Credit. Another major change involves each staff member in England being able to look after five two-year-olds instead of four, as is already the case in Scotland.

Personal Taxation and Pensions

To encourage over-50s to extend their working lives, the government is increasing tax relief limits on pension contributions and pots – the Annual Allowance will be raised from £40,000 to £60,000 from April 2023; the Lifetime Allowance (LTA) charge will be removed from April 2023, and the LTA will be abolished from April 2024. The maximum amount that can be accessed tax free (Pension Commencement Lump Sum) will be frozen at its current level of £268,275 (25% of current LTA). From April, the minimum Tapered Annual Allowance (TAA) and the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) will increase from £4,000 to £10,000 and the adjusted income threshold for the TAA will also rise, from £240,000 to £260,000.

As a reminder, the following changes were previously announced in the Autumn Statement 2022:

The Income Tax additional rate threshold (ART) at which 45p becomes payable is lowered from £150,000 to £125,140 from April 2023. The ART for non-savings and non-dividend income will apply to taxpayers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
The Dividend Allowance reduces from £2,000 to £1,000 from April 2023 and to £500 from April 2024
The annual Capital Gains Tax exemption reduces from £12,300 to £6,000 from April 2023 and to £3,000 from April 2024
The Stamp Duty Land Tax nil-rate threshold for England and Northern Ireland is £250,000 for all purchasers and £425,000 for first-time buyers, remaining in place until 31 March 2025.

In addition:

The Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold remain at £12,570 and £50,270 respectively until April 2028 (rates and thresholds may differ for taxpayers in parts of the UK where Income Tax is devolved)
The basic State Pension will increase in April 2023 from £141.85 per week to £156.20 per week, while the full new State Pension will rise from £185.15 to £203.85 per week. The standard minimum income guarantee in Pension Credit will also increase in line with inflation from April 2023 (rather than in line with average earnings growth)
Inheritance Tax (IHT) nil-rate bands remain at £325,000 nil-rate band, £175,000 residence nil-rate band, with taper starting at £2m – fixed at these levels until April 2028
National Insurance contributions (NICs) Upper Earnings Limit (UEL) and Upper Profits Limit (UPL) are frozen until April 2028
The ISA (Individual Savings Account) allowance remains at £20,000 and the JISA (Junior Individual Savings Account) allowance and Child Trust Fund annual subscription limits remain at £9,000.

Other key points

Potholes Fund – an extra £200m for local road maintenance in England in 2023/24
Alcohol Duty – rates frozen until August 2023 then uprated by RPI, Draught Relief increased to 9.2% for beer and cider and 23% for wine from 1 August 2023
Fuel duty rates – maintaining the rates of fuel duty at the current levels for an additional 12 months
Defence spending – an extra £4.95bn for defence over 2023/24 and 2024/25
Support for veterans – an additional £33m over the next three years
Swimming Pool Support Fund – over £60m for public swimming pools across England
Support for charities and community organisations – £100m (England)
Plastic Packaging Tax rate – uprated in line with CPI from 1 April 2023
Launching ‘Great British Nuclear’ – supporting new nuclear builds, £20bn available for Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS), and extending the Climate Change Agreement scheme for a further two years
Devolved administrations – receiving an additional £630m through the Barnett formula over 2023/24 and 2024/25 (Scottish Government £320m, Welsh Government £180m and Northern Ireland Executive £130m).

Closing comments

Jeremy Hunt signed off his announcement saying, “Today we build for the future with inflation down, debt falling and growth up. The declinists are wrong and the optimists are right. We stick to the plan because the plan is working.”

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding of the Budget and taxation and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on individual circumstances.

All details are believed to be correct at the time of writing (15 March 2023)

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If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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RE: Testimonial for Karen Sheldon – Sheldon Flanders Financial Services Being an expert insurance broker who pride ourselves on the service and products we provide to our customers we have built a team of close referral partners who we know can trust and will provide the same to our customers and contracts when we recommend them. Having worked with Karen and her team for a few years and having used their services personally, myself and my team are pleased to say that Karen and her team at Sheldon Flanders Financial Services offer a personal service and an expertise that is first class. Couple this with the knowledge that they are totally independent and hold qualifications that most IFA’s do not is the reason why they are our number one choice when referring clients, contacts, family and friends for pensions, investments and protection insurance advice. I look forward to our continuing partnership for many years to come. Sean Kinsella Partner

Sean Kinsella

Oakes Insurance

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14th June 2018 Karen Sheldon - Testimonial To whom it may concern, Like many sole traders who made the decision to start working for themselves, I had somewhat neglected to plan what to do on when I didn’t want to work for myself anymore, or anyone else for that matter. Having been employed previously, I had a number of pension pots in different companies no clear idea what any of them amounted to. My previous IFA had sorted these out for me into one new ‘’pot’’ but hadn’t really explained whether it would be enough and what I could do to help it grow. That’s when I asked for the help of Karen Sheldon. Firstly, Karen went through my lifestyle now and to see what parts of it I wanted to keep after retiring, she looked at my family’s financial situation around our mortgage and the age of my children and what we all might need in the future. She then asked me to apply to the government to see what my state pension would entitle me to, something no other IFA has ever asked me to do, and then Karen went to work looking at the arrangements others had made for me alongside the state pension and what sort of lifestyle it would give me. Fortunately, it seems I am better prepared than most and Karen was very honest in telling me that she didn’t really need to do anything at this point. However, and again, this was something no other IFA had done, Karen gave me some scenarios where it would be a good idea for me to contact her in future to make sure I could use that to my advantage helping me in the future. Karen is a thoroughly professional and friendly person to deal with, her attention to detail when going through something quite complex (to me anyway) has made things clearer than ever before and I know that my future, and that of my family is in safe hands. Thank you! Ian Trembirth, Trembirth Design

Ian Trembirth

Trembirth Design

December 1, 2017 Karen Sheldon Dear Karen Sheldon: I am writing to express my gratitude for the help and advice Karen of Sheldon Flanders Financial Services gave when looking to invest a sum of money left to me by a relative in a will. You explained everything in layman’s terms and made sure everything was understood before moving on to the next step. My wife had made an appointment with the bank manager and I’m sure we would’ve ended up with a low interest ISA account with no flexibility and under his/her terms. So, I cancelled the appointment and arranged to meet up with Karen. I was very happy with her knowledge, patience and friendly manner. Always there with a smile on her face and personable nature I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend Karen to family and friends on any matters regarding finance. She’s a whizz! Thanks again! Kind regards Danny Curran

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LunarTech Ltd

Karen Sheldon Sheldon Flanders Financial Services Ltd. 25th July 2014 To whom it may concern My wife and I recently wanted to review our affairs with regards to life insurance cover to see that we at least had the right policies in place for us both. We asked Karen of Sheldon Flanders Financial Services to review our current policies we had, plus to look into a new policy for my wife to see if there was better cover available for her. As my wife’s status is more complicated with regards to ongoing health, Karen searched extensively to find a policy that would give her the right life cover and this process was not straightforward, but nevertheless she took a big amount of time to find an option that would work which ultimately gave us options to look at. Karen also spent the time to give some great advice on my life insurance policies as well. As a result of Karen’s work, we have now both been left feeling much more confident that our affairs are in good shape when it comes to protecting our futures. I would have no hesitation in recommending Karen to give you peace of mind for your future, in financial and personal circumstances. Yours faithfully Andy Peat Managing Director Andy Peat Design

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Andy Peat Design

Jubilee Business Park Appleby Magna Swadlincote Derbyshire DE12 7AJ Re: Testimonial: Karen Sheldon – Sheldon Flanders Financial Services. I would like to take this opportunity to thank Karen for her assistance with our recent financial planning. Karen’s advice, expertise and patience makes the complex world of tax planning certainly seam a lot less stressful and Karen’s knowledge of the industry is second to none. I can highly recommend Karen’s service for any financial requirements as financial planning is key to securing your future income and Karen and her team by far exceeded my expectations when it comes to an area I previously knew nothing about. Saffron Event and Venue Caterers Ltd Company Number 6793893 Tel: 01530273879

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Mrs Karen Sheldon Sheldon Flanders Financial Services The Old Chapel 1c Welbeck Grove Allestree Derby DE22 2LS RE: Testimonial I contacted Karen Sheldon of Sheldon Flanders Financial Services to look over my pension which I had had for many years so was in desperate need of a review. I met Karen at a time and location that best suited me, and we went through my existing plan and my plans for future in regards to when I wanted to retire and how much money I would like to retire on. After this initial consultation Karen and her team went away and proceeded to obtain some quotations and information whilst keeping me updated at all times with each stage. Following this I then met with Karen again at a time and location that best suited me, and she advised what my next steps were to achieve my financial goals and to achieve financial freedom. Following this I had no hesitation to appoint her as my financial advisor and would have no hesitation in recommending Karen and her company Sheldon Flanders Financial Services to any of my family, friends and contracts. Kind regards Sean Kinsella Commercial Lines Manager Oakes Insurance Consultants

Sean Kinsella

Oakes Insurance

To whom it may concern Sheldon Flanders Financial Services As the main income earner in our household, with 3 children, I had been worried about what might happen to me and more importantly to my family should anything happen to me. I knew I needed to seek advice but had always put it off, as I have very little knowledge about all things financial services related. I am not one to spend hours filling out forms and reading pages and pages of policy documentation, with no idea what cover I should be getting for my business and personal situation. I knew I had to seek advice and was recommended to Karen Sheldon. Throughout the entire process, Karen has been professional, respective of my time, concise through and it is clear that she really is an expert in business protection, pensions and critical illness. I now feel safe in knowledge that if anything should happen to me, that my family will be taken care of. I have total peace of mind. If you are a business owner looking for expert advice from amazing Independent Financial Advisor, then look no further than Karen Sheldon. She will make the process easy to understand, find you the best solution on the market and ensure that you, your business and your family are protected. Kind regards Sam Rathling LinkedIn Expert

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Linkedin Expert

I first met Karen at a business networking club in 2010. Karen always impressed me with her professionalism and knowledge of her financial products. In 2013, following 2 divorces, I decided to re-start my personal pension. I sat down with Karen and we discussed where I was financially and what I wanted to achieve. She produced figures on various options and I chose 2 products that have both since performed very well. I have since decided to invest considerably more and have taken Karen's recommendations. I would have no hesitation in recommending Karen in her field. She is highly knowledgeable, professional and efficient.

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When my mum received a letter from her bank, asking if she was sure her investments for her pension were not mis-sold, she asked if I knew of anyone who could advise her. I immediately turned to Karen Sheldon of Sheldon Flanders Financial Services. Karen quickly made an appointment to see my mum in her own house, took the relevant documentation away with her and then following another visit again to my mum's house was able to advise her accordingly as to her options. My mum really appreciated Karen's sound advice and is much happier knowing that her investments have been reviewed professionally and she is already recommending Karen on to her WI and sewing group buddies! Thank you Karen for all your efforts at putting my mum's mind at rest and I would have no hesitation in recommending Karen if you need financial advice.

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Envirovent

economic update

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

UK economy rebounds in November

Official statistics show the economy returned to growth in November, although analysts believe it remains a close call as to whether or not the UK will once again manage to avoid a recession.

Surprise uptick in inflation rate

Last month’s release of consumer price statistics revealed a small increase in the UK headline rate of inflation, bucking analysts’ expectations for a further easing in price pressures.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Major global indices were mixed at the end of January. On the last trading day of the month the FTSE 100 lost ground ahead of imminent interest rate decisions in the UK and US.

Government borrowing lower than expected

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed a smaller-than-expected budget deficit providing the Chancellor with more room for manoeuvre as he prepares to deliver his Spring Statement in March.

Retail sales fall sharply

Data released last month by ONS revealed that the UK retail sector suffered its sharpest decline in sales volumes for almost three years.

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 February 2024)

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

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Preparing portfolios for resilience in 2024

Geopolitical risk

Economic prospects

Investment pragmatism

New year, new opportunities

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Global dividends – encouraging growth?

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

In the news

Who wants to be an (ISA) millionaire?

More people choose living inheritances

One million more over-65s still at work

The financial pitfalls that primarily affect women

Research5 has shone a spotlight on the financial challenges that prevent women from accumulating the same wealth as their male counterparts.

The findings

Let’s do something about it – together

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

The sophisticated scammers targeting YOU

According to a study from NatWest7, seven in 10 people have been targeted by scams over the last 12 months. Vulnerabilities brought on by cost-of-living challenges have likely contributed to the high numbers.

Avoid, avoid, avoid

Phishing scams (37%)

Trusted organisation scams (21%)

Refund scams (13%)

Keep yourself (and your money) safe

Are you due a midlife MOT?

Just to be clear, we’re not talking about your physical health here (that’s the doctor’s remit). We’re talking about a check-up to assess your financial wellbeing.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Planning for a secure financial future

Plan, plan, plan

Gender gap

Triple default trap

Here to support you

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Prospects of stronger economic growth

Global recovery remains slow

Challenges ahead but growth prospects

Diversification is key

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

Economy stages partial rebound

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Jobs market continues to cool

Retail sales in autumnal fall

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 November 2023 )

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you

Call us on 01332913006

UK growth rate exceeds expectations

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that the UK economy grew more strongly than expected in June, although more recent survey data does suggest a renewed contraction looks ‘inevitable.’

Interest rates rise again

Early last month, the Bank of England (BoE) announced a further hike in its benchmark interest rate and warned that rates were likely to remain high for some time.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of August, major global stock markets closed the month in negative territory. European stock markets were mixed on the last trading day of the month, as key central bank policy meetings approached and investors processed regional inflation data.

Headline inflation rate declines

Research⁵ has shone a spotlight on the financial challenges that prevent women from accumulating the same wealth as their male counterparts.

According to a study from NatWest⁷, seven in 10 people have been targeted by scams over the last 12 months. Vulnerabilities brought on by cost-of-living challenges have likely contributed to the high numbers.

**Last month, the BoE announced another hike in its benchmark interest rate and insisted it will ‘stay the course’ in its battle to bring down inflation.**