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Economic Review – February 2025

Economic Review – February 2025

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SFFS Economic Review_Feb 25

 

Data released last month by the Office
for National Statistics (ONS) revealed
that the UK economy unexpectedly grew
in the final three months of last year,
although more recent survey evidence
still points to a sluggish outlook.
The latest gross domestic product
(GDP) statistics showed that economic
output rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter
of 2024, after flatlining across the previous
three-month period. While the figure still
only represents a relatively lacklustre rate
of expansion, it was significantly stronger
than economists had been expecting, with
the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll
predicting a 0.1% contraction during the
final three months of the year.
A monthly breakdown showed that the
final quarter GDP figure was lifted by a
strong performance in December, which
saw a 0.4% expansion. This reflected
robust service sector growth, with ONS
noting that wholesalers, film distributors,
pubs and bars all did particularly well,
while machinery manufacturers
and pharmaceutical companies performed
strongly too. In addition, however,
it was noted that December’s growth
relied on government spending and a
potentially temporary build-up in firms’
inventories.
Data from a recently released economic
survey also suggests growth in the
first two months of 2025 has been tepid.
February’s flash headline growth indicator
from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 50.5
from 50.6 in January, leaving the index
only marginally above the 50.0 no change
threshold, implying the UK economy has
seen little growth so far this year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief
Business Economist Chris Williamson
said, “Early PMI survey data for February
indicate that business activity remained
largely stalled. While marginal output
growth was eked out in February, order
books deteriorated at a rate not seen
since August 2023 to hint at likely cuts to
business activity in the coming months
unless demand revives.”

 

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Spring Budget 2024

Spring Budget 2024

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On 6 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt delivered his Spring Budget to the House of Commons declaring it was “a Budget for long-term growth.” The fiscal update included a number of new policy measures, such as a widely-anticipated reduction in National Insurance, abolition of the non-dom tax status and new savings products designed to encourage more people to invest in UK assets. The Chancellor said his policies would help build a “high wage, high skill economy” and deliver “more investment, more jobs, better public services and lower taxes.”

 

OBR forecasts

During his speech, the Chancellor declared that the economy had “turned the corner on inflation” and “will soon turn the corner on growth” as he unveiled the latest economic projections produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). He started by saying that they showed the rate of inflation falling below the Bank of England’s 2% target level in “a few months’ time.” He noted that this was nearly a year earlier than the OBR had forecast in the autumn and said this had not happened “by accident” but was due to “sound money” policies.

 

The Chancellor also noted that the OBR forecast shows the government is on track to meet both its self-imposed fiscal rules which state that underlying debt must be falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) by the fifth year of the forecast and that public sector borrowing must be below 3% of GDP over the same time period. Indeed, in relation to the second rule, Mr Hunt pointed out that borrowing looks set to fall below 3% of GDP by 2025/26 and that by the end of the forecast period it represents the lowest level of annual borrowing since 2001.

In terms of growth, Mr Hunt revealed that the updated OBR projections suggest the UK economy will expand by 0.8% this year, marginally higher than the fiscal watchdog’s autumn forecast. Next year’s growth rate was also revised upwards to 1.9% compared to the 1.4% figure previously predicted.

 

Cost-of-living measures

The Chancellor also announced a series of measures designed to help families deal with cost-of-living pressures. These included: an extension to the Household Support Fund at current levels for a further six months; maintaining the ‘temporary’ 5p cut on fuel duty and freezing it for another 12 months; an extension of the freeze in alcohol duty until February 2025; an extension in the repayment period for new budgeting advance loans from 12 months to 24 months, and abolition of the £90 charge for a debt relief order.

 

Personal taxation, savings and pensions

Following previous changes to National Insurance Contributions (NICs) from January 2024, the government announced further changes to take effect this April:

  • The main rate of employee NICs will be cut by 2p in the pound from 10% to 8%, which, when combined with the 2p cut that took effect in January, is estimated to save the average salaried worker around £900 a year
  • There will be a further 2p cut from the main rate of self-employed NICs on top of the 1p cut announced at the Autumn Statement
  • This means that from 6 April 2024 the main rate of Class 4 NICs for the self-employed will reduce from 9% to 6%. Combined with the abolition of the requirement to pay Class 2 NICs, this will save an average self-employed person around £650 a year.

To remove unfairness in the system, changes to Child Benefit were announced:

  • The Child Benefit system will be based on household rather than individual incomes by April 2026
  • From April 2024 the threshold for the High Income Child Benefit Charge will be raised to £60,000 from £50,000, taking 170,000 families out of paying this charge
  • The rate of the charge will also be halved, so that Child Benefit is not lost in full until an individual earns £80,000 per annum
  • The government estimates that nearly half a million families will gain an average of £1,260 in 2024/25 as a result.

 

The government announced two savings products to encourage UK savings – a new UK Individual Savings Account (ISA) and British Savings Bonds:

  • The new ISA will have a £5,000 annual allowance in addition to the existing ISA allowance and will be a new tax-free product for people to invest in UK-focused assets
  • British Savings Bonds will be delivered through National Savings & Investments (NS&I) in April 2024, offering a guaranteed interest rate, fixed for three years.

 

Expressing concern that, across the pensions industry, investment into UK equities is only around 6%, the Chancellor announced plans to bring forward requirements for Defined Contribution pension funds to publicly disclose the breakdown of their asset allocations, including UK equities, working closely with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to achieve this.

 

The non-dom tax regime, available to some UK residents with permanent domicile overseas, is to be abolished. From April 2025, new arrivals to the UK will not have to pay tax on foreign income and gains for the first four years of their UK residency. After that, they will pay the same tax as other UK residents. Transition arrangements will be allowed for current non-doms.

 

In addition:

  • As previously announced in the Autumn Statement, the government is working to bring forward legislation by the end of the summer to allow people to invest in a diverse range of investment types through their ISAs
  • The existing ISA allowance remains at £20,000 and the JISA (Junior ISA) allowance and Child Trust Fund annual subscription limits remain at £9,000
  • The Dividend Allowance reduces to £500 from April 2024
  • The annual Capital Gains Tax (CGT) exemption reduces to £3,000 from April 2024
  • The standard nil rate Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold for England and Northern Ireland is £250,000 and £425,000 for first-time buyers, remaining in place until 31 March 2025
  • The Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold remain at £12,570 and £50,270 respectively until April 2028 (rates and thresholds may differ for taxpayers in parts of the UK where Income Tax is devolved)
  • There will be a consultation on moving to a residence-based regime for Inheritance Tax (IHT). No changes to IHT will take effect before 6 April 2025 – £325,000 nil-rate band, £175,000 main residence nil-rate band, with taper starting at £2m estate value
  • From 1 April 2024, personal representatives of estates will no longer need to take out commercial loans to pay IHT before applying to obtain a grant on credit from HMRC
  • The State Pension, as previously announced, will go up by 8.5% in April, which means £221.20 a week for the full, new flat-rate State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age after April 2016) and £169.50 a week for the full, old basic State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age before April 2016)
  • The removal of the Lifetime Allowance (LTA) from pensions tax legislation from April
  • As previously announced, the National Living Wage for over-23s – paid by employers – will rise from £10.42 an hour to £11.44 an hour in April.

Business measures

Various business measures announced included the raising of the threshold at which small businesses must register to pay VAT from £85,000 to £90,000 from April 2024. In addition, the Recovery Loan Scheme for small businesses will be extended until March 2026.

 

Property taxation

The Chancellor also announced the government’s plans to make the property tax system fairer, by:

  • Abolishing the Furnished Holiday Lettings tax regime
  • Abolishing Stamp Duty Land Tax Multiple Dwellings Relief from 1 June 2024
  • Reducing the higher rate of CGT on residential properties from 28% to 24%.

Public services

“Good public services need a strong economy to pay for them, but a strong economy also needs good public services.” This is how the Chancellor introduced the government’s “landmark” Public Sector Productivity Plan which, it says, will restart public sector reform and change the Treasury’s traditional approach to public spending.

Our National Health Service is, said Mr Hunt, “rightly the biggest reason most of us are proud to be British.” He announced £3.4bn to modernise NHS IT systems, which is forecast to unlock £35bn of savings by 2030 and boost NHS productivity by almost 2% per year between 2025/26 and 2029/30.

This includes:

  • Modernising NHS IT systems
  • Improvements to the NHS app to allow patients to confirm and modify appointments
  • Piloting the use of AI to automate back-office functions
  • Moving all NHS Trusts to electronic patient records
  • Over 100 upgraded AI-fitted MRI scanners to speed up results for potentially 130,000 patients per year.

 

The Chancellor announced a £2.5bn funding boost for the NHS in 2024/25, allowing the service to continue its focus on reducing waiting times for patients.

Mr Hunt also announced £800m of additional investment to boost productivity across other public services, including:

  • £230m for drones and new technology to free up police officers’ time for frontline work
  • £75m to roll out the Violence Reduction Unit model across England and Wales
  • £170m for the justice system, including £55m for family courts, £100m for prisons and £15m to reduce administrative burdens in the courts
  • £165m to fund additional children’s social care placements
  • An initial commitment of £105m to build new special free schools.

Other key points

  • New duty on vaping products to be introduced from October 2026
  • Tobacco duty will be increased from October 2026
  • Air Passenger Duty adjustments to non-economy class rates from 2025/26
  • Energy Profits Levy one year extension from 1 April 2028 to 2029
  • Boosting local growth through a continuation of the Investment Zones programme
  • £1bn in additional tax relief over the next five years for creative industries
  • Housing investment including £124m at Barking Riverside and £118m to accelerate delivery of the Canary Wharf scheme (including up to 750 homes)
  • £120m for the Green Industries Growth Accelerator (GIGA)
  • £7.4m upskilling fund pilot to help SMEs develop AI skills of the future
  • Extension to Freeport tax reliefs to September 2031
  • Extension to and deepening of devolution in England, including the North East Trailblazer Devolution Deal
  • HMRC to establish an advisory panel to support the administration of the R&D tax reliefs.

 

Closing comments

Jeremy Hunt signed off his Budget saying he was delivering, “A plan to grow the economy, a plan for better public services, a plan to make work pay… Growth up, jobs up and taxes down. I commend this Statement to the House.”

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding of the Budget taxation and HMRC rules and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

All details are believed to be correct at the time of writing (6 March 2024)

 

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
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Economic Review – January 2024

Economic Review – January 2024

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UK economy rebounds in November

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Official statistics show the economy returned to growth in November, although analysts believe it remains a close call as to whether or not the UK will once again manage to avoid a recession.

 

Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November following a contraction of a similar magnitude during the previous month. ONS said the services sector led the rebound, with Black Friday providing a boost to retailers, warehousing and couriers, while car leasing and computer games firms also enjoyed a buoyant month.

 

Despite November’s bounce back, ONS noted that the longer-term picture remains one of little growth over the past year. Indeed, output actually shrank by 0.2% in the three months to the end of November, and the statistics agency said a contraction or even flat data in December could lead to a second successive quarter of falling output, and thereby tip the economy into a shallow technical recession.

 

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released towards the end of last month, however, paints a more positive picture with business confidence rising to its highest level since last May. The preliminary headline economic growth indicator also rose, up from 52.1 in December to 52.5 in January, beating analysts’ expectations and pointing to a stronger than expected start to 2024 for the UK economy.

 

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “UK business activity growth accelerated for a third straight month in January, according to early PMI survey data, marking a promising start to the year. The survey data point to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of 0.2% after a flat fourth quarter, therefore skirting recession and showing signs of renewed momentum.”

 

 

 

Surprise uptick in inflation rate

 

Last month’s release of consumer price statistics revealed a small increase in the UK headline rate of inflation, bucking analysts’ expectations for a further easing in price pressures.

 

Data published by ONS showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – stood at 4.0% in December. This was up from November’s 3.9% figure and was also higher than the 3.8% consensus forecast from a Reuters poll of economists.

 

ONS said the increase, which represented the first inflation uptick in 10 months, was partly driven by a sharp rise in tobacco prices due to duty increases. There were also material upward contributions from the recreation, airfare and clothing sectors, although these were partially offset by a fall in food inflation with prices in this sector still rising but at a much lower rate than in the comparable period last year.

 

Analysts typically expect January’s inflation rate to rise as a result of base effects and there are a number of notable risks to the outlook particularly relating to disruption of shipping in the Red Sea. However, most economists are still predicting the downward trajectory will resume with potentially large declines forecast this spring.

 

Capital Economics, for instance, recently suggested CPI inflation could drop below 2% by April. The independent research firm also said this could result in the UK’s pace of price growth actually breaching the 2% mark before both the US and Eurozone.

 

While December’s inflation rise did dent market expectations of an early cut in interest rates, analysts do still typically expect the Bank of England to sanction a series of rate reductions this year. Indeed, a recent Reuters poll found that just over half of economists expect the first cut to be sanctioned before mid-2024.

 

 

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

 

Major global indices were mixed at the end of January. On the last trading day of the month the FTSE 100 lost ground ahead of imminent interest rate decisions in the UK and US.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 7,630.57, a loss of 1.33%, while the mid cap orientated FTSE 250 closed January 1.68% lower on 19,357.95. The FTSE AIM closed on 754.75, a loss of 1.12% in the month.

On 31 January, the Federal Reserve decided to retain interest rates for another month, whilst making it clear that it needs to see more progress on inflation before reducing borrowing costs. The Dow closed the month up 1.22% on 38,150.30, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed January up just over 1% on 15,164.01. At month end the broader market came under pressure as technology stocks failed to live up to expectations.

Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month 2.80% higher, on 4,648.40. The Nikkei 225 ended January on 36,286.71, up 8.43%. During the month, Japan’s benchmark index broke past the 35,000 mark, for the first time since February 1990.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.27 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

 

Gold closed the month trading around $2,053 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 1.21%. Brent crude closed January trading at around $80 a barrel, a monthly gain of 4.87%. Oil posted its first monthly gain since September.

 

 

32Index                                                            Value (31/01/24)                           Movement since 29/12/23

 

FTSE 100                                            7,630.57                                                           -1.33%                               

FTSE 250                                           19,357.95                                                         -1.68%                               

FTSE AIM                                          754.75                                                               -1.12%

Euro Stoxx 50                                  4,648.40                                                           +2.80%

NASDAQ Composite                      15,164.01                                                         +1.02%                

Dow Jones                                        38,150.30                                                         +1.22% 

Nikkei 225                                        36,286.71                                                         +8.43%

 

 

 

 

Government borrowing lower than expected

 

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed a smaller-than-expected budget deficit providing the Chancellor with more room for manoeuvre as he prepares to deliver his Spring Statement in March.

 

ONS data showed government borrowing fell to £7.8bn in December, nearly half the level predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. This left the fiscal year-to-date total at £119bn, almost £5bn below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November forecast produced for the Autumn Statement, principally as a result of lower than anticipated inflation reducing debt interest payments.

 

Prior to release of the data, the Chancellor had hinted at potential pre-election tax cuts when he delivers his Spring Budget on 6 March. Speaking during a visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said he wanted to move in the direction of cutting taxes and noted that countries with lower taxes “are more dynamic, more competitive and generate more money for public services.”

 

Analysis released late last month by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, however, suggests the next government is likely to face the toughest challenge since the 1950s to bring down the country’s high debt burden. The economic think tank also warned that tax cuts now could compound the problem.

 

 

 

 

Retail sales fall sharply

 

Data released last month by ONS revealed that the UK retail sector suffered its sharpest decline in sales volumes for almost three years.

 

Official retail sales statistics showed sales volumes fell by 3.2% in December; this figure was worse than all predictions in a Reuters poll of economists with the consensus forecast pointing to a 0.5% fall. The monthly decline was also the largest since January 2021 when the reintroduction of pandemic restrictions heavily impacted sales. While ONS did say people appeared to have shopped earlier this year in order to take advantage of Black Friday sales, they also noted evidence of consumers spending less on gifts while food sales also notably declined in the run-up to Christmas.

 

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests the retail environment remains extremely challenging with year-on-year sales volumes in January falling at the fastest pace since the pandemic. The survey also found that retailers anticipate a similar rate of contraction in February.

 

CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “Retailers reported a further deterioration in activity at the start of 2024. Looking ahead, demand conditions in the sector will remain challenging as higher interest rates continue to feed through to mortgage payments and household incomes.”

 

 

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 February 2024)

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission

 

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
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Your Finance Matters – Q1 Winter 2024

Your Finance Matters – Q1 Winter 2024

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Preparing portfolios for resilience in 2024

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The past few years have been challenging for investors with a series of unforeseen events and rising geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on global markets and, as a new year dawns, many issues remain unresolved. However, while such times are disconcerting for investors, the best way to achieve financial empowerment is by sticking to a sound strategic plan that optimises investment decisions and thereby tackles any potential issues head on.

 

Geopolitical risk

Although it may sometimes feel we are living through unprecedented times, geopolitical risk is not a new phenomenon – it has always been a feature of the investment landscape. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, the Middle East conflict, however, are both clearly major events most people did not foresee. And, when such events do occur, even the most well-informed investors find it difficult to accurately predict their impact on markets and investment portfolios.

 

Economic prospects

The global economy is currently in a relatively precarious position with the long-term consequences of the pandemic, war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation hindering prospects. The International Monetary Fund’s assessment, for example, produced just before October’s Middle East conflict erupted, points to an easing of growth across advanced economies this year, while China looks set to experience its slowest growth rate for years.

 

Investment pragmatism

While geopolitical events need to be closely monitored, investors must also be disciplined with any changes to investment strategy based on hard facts rather than knee-jerk reactions to the latest news headlines. The key to successful investing is undoubtedly to focus on long-term objectives and mitigate any potential risks by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio spread across different asset classes, industries and geographical regions.

 

New year, new opportunities

While geopolitical tensions are expected to present ongoing challenges, as 2024 unfolds new investment opportunities will inevitably become available. We’ll be on hand throughout the year to help you make the most of any opportunities, by carefully repositioning your portfolio and ensuring it remains firmly aligned with your financial objectives.

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

 

 

Global dividends – encouraging growth?

 

A new study1 analysing global dividend trends has highlighted that, in the third quarter of last year, 89% of companies chose to maintain their dividend levels or raise them. Despite this, it was noted that during the quarter, global dividends reduced by 0.9% (on a headline basis) to total $421.9bn.

 

The underlying growth of dividends, paid by the world’s 1,200 largest firms measured by market capitalisation, was recorded at 0.3% in Q3 2023; this follows adjustments for the strengthening US dollar and for special dividends. Interestingly, the overall growth rate was ‘significantly impacted’ by a diminutive number of large dividend cuts; the report noted that this ‘masked encouraging growth across the wider market.’ If you exclude the two largest dividend reductions, for example, underlying growth was 5.3%.

 

From a year-on-year perspective, the 2023 headline forecast has been reduced from $1.64trn to $1.63trn, also reflective of reduced special dividends and a stronger US dollar, and ‘not a cause for concern,’ according to the report. Head of Global Equity Income at Janus Henderson, Ben Lofthouse, signalled that, “dividend growth from companies generally remains strong across a wide range of sectors and regions,” adding that the data highlights “a globally diversified income portfolio has natural stabilisers,” as sectors in ascendance are “able to counteract those with declining dividends,” before concluding, “Dividends are typically much less volatile than earnings over time, providing comfort in times of economic uncertainty.”

 

1Janus Henderson, 2023

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

 

 

In the news

 

Who wants to be an (ISA) millionaire?

The number of ISA millionaires – i.e. people who have built up a tax-free pot of £1m or more by investing in stocks and shares ISAs – has almost quintupled since 2017, with the figure now standing at 2,7602. With the first ISAs introduced in 1999 aimed at encouraging more people to save, the data certainly suggests the objective is being satisfied for an increasing number, with the most recent data suggesting around 11.8 million adults were subscribed to an ISA in 2021/22, making £66.9bn deposits in that tax year.

 

More people choose living inheritances

There has been an increase in the number of people who are choosing to gift significant sums of money to beneficiaries whilst they are still alive – otherwise known as a ‘living inheritance.’ One in 10 respondents to the Great British Retirement Survey 20233 said they had given a living inheritance in the past three years. This increased to 15% amongst over-65s.

 

One million more over-65s still at work

There are now nearly a million more people over the age of 65 in the UK labour market compared with the number still at work in the year 20004. This is according to the Centre for Ageing Better, which has calculated that 976,000 workers over the age of 65 and 3.1 million aged 50-64 have been added to the workforce since the Millennium. It is thought that the UK’s ageing population, in addition to changes in the State Pension age, are mostly responsible for the increasing numbers of older workers in the UK’s labour force over the past few decades.

 

2HMRC, 2023

3Interactive Investor, 2023

4Centre for Ageing Better, 2023

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

 

 

The financial pitfalls that primarily affect women

 

Research5 has shone a spotlight on the financial challenges that prevent women from accumulating the same wealth as their male counterparts.

 

The report found that having children continues to have a disproportionately large impact on women’s finances, as do other life events such as the menopause.

 

The findings

Amongst the report’s findings were the following statistics:

 

  • A quarter of women continue paying into their pension at the same rate during parental leave, vs 70% of men

 

  • Caring responsibilities (outside of childcare) have financially impacted nearly half of women

 

  • One in 20 menopausal women have quit work due to their symptoms

 

  • Only 55% of women return to work full time after their first child, compared to 90% of men.

 

Of course, no two women are the same and each will face different challenges on her journey to financial wellbeing. However, these statistics show that there are common threads here. Women continue to take the lion’s share of caring responsibilities, taking them out of the workplace and reducing their financial security not only in the present, but as they approach retirement as well.

 

Let’s do something about it – together

Despite the financial challenges women face, they remain less likely than men to seek professional financial advice6. As we move into 2024, make a New Year’s resolution – let this be the year that you empower yourself to succeed and get your finances on track for a prosperous future.

 

5AJ Bell, 2023

6Canada Life, 2022

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

 

 

The sophisticated scammers targeting YOU

 

According to a study from NatWest7, seven in 10 people have been targeted by scams over the last 12 months. Vulnerabilities brought on by cost-of-living challenges have likely contributed to the high numbers.

 

Sadly, 13% of people have fallen prey to such scams, which are growing in both number and sophistication – targeting young and old – no one is immune.

 

Avoid, avoid, avoid

To avoid a scam, you’ve first got to know what you’re looking for. So, here’s a list of the most common scams used over the past year and the proportion of people who were targeted:

 

  1. Phishing scams (37%)

Fake emails or calls from organisations purporting to be from legitimate companies, asking you to provide personal or private data.

 

  1. Trusted organisation scams (21%)

Criminals contact their victims pretending to be trusted organisations such as HMRC, the police or their bank, saying there’s something wrong with their account, they need to pay a fine, or similar.

 

  1. Refund scams (13%)

Similar to the above, but the criminals instead use a potential refund or rebate to tempt victims into sharing personal or banking information.

 

Other scams include messages purporting to be from friends/family asking for money (12%), get rich quick scams (12%) and purchase scams (9%).

 

Keep yourself (and your money) safe

Staying vigilant and keeping your guard up around unsolicited calls and messages is key to protecting yourself from scams. Remember:

 

  • If something seems too good to be true, it probably is

 

  • Your bank will never ask you to disclose your full PIN or password

 

  • Don’t respond to unsolicited calls, emails or texts, or open links if you feel suspicious

 

  • We’re always here to help if you’re ever unsure about something.

 

Always be alert to the risk of fraud – double check any details to ensure people or organisations are who you think they are. Stay vigilant, protect yourself – knowledge is power.

 

7NatWest, 2023

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

 

 

Are you due a midlife MOT?

Just to be clear, we’re not talking about your physical health here (that’s the doctor’s remit). We’re talking about a check-up to assess your financial wellbeing.

And we’re asking because nearly one in six people aged between 45 and 54 are now making significant financial sacrifices to ensure their pension pots are up to scratch for retirement8. At the same time, they are still juggling a multitude of other financial responsibilities, including childcare and mortgages, at a time when cost of living pressures persist.

 

Just like you’d go to the doctor for a check-up if you were feeling a bit run down, a financial MOT could be just what you need at this crucial time in your life to ensure your finances are working for you.

 

Here are some key aspects to think about:

 

  1. Retirement planning – as you approach retirement, now is the time to take stock of your pension savings to ensure you’re on track for your goals

 

  1. Protection – your health needs can change as you get older, so a review of your protection cover could be a good idea to ensure you and your family are properly protected

 

  1. Debt management – a review can help you assess your current debts and work out how to best pay them off

 

  1. Investments – are your investments working for you? Can your portfolio be rebalanced to better align with your risk profile and long-term financial objectives?

 

  1. Estate planning – now is also an excellent time to review your long-term plans for passing your wealth onto the next generation and to make a Will and Lasting Power of Attorney (LPA).

 

Here to help

If a midlife MOT sounds like it might benefit you, then please do give us a call – we’re on hand to help you review each aspect of your finances and develop a comprehensive financial plan.

 

8Phoenix Group, 2023

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

 

 

Planning for a secure financial future

 

Over the past 12 months, the cost-of-living crisis has put significant pressure on household budgets and knocked many people’s confidence in their future financial prospects. Research, however, shows that planning is a key driver of positivity about our financial futures; so, as a new year dawns, now seems the perfect time to take stock of your finances and formulate a plan to help you achieve your retirement goals.

 

Plan, plan, plan

Although decisions around retirement are arguably the most critical people have to make during their whole lives, research9 suggests only half of over-50s with pension entitlements other than the State Pension have actually formulated a detailed plan. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it also found that those with a plan were much more confident about securing a comfortable retirement than those who do not have one.

 

Gender gap

The research found clear evidence of a gender gap with men generally more confident about their prospects for a comfortable retirement than their female counterparts. It also found that the

cost-of-living crisis has been a key driver of low confidence, with half of the sample stating that it has either slightly or significantly worsened their chances of a comfortable retirement.

 

Triple default trap

People without a plan are also more likely to get stuck with their default pension settings. Recent years are thought to have seen a sharp rise in the number of triple defaulters who ‘set and forget’ their pension choices, with millions of auto-enrolled 32-40 year olds failing to update their contributions, investment choices or target retirement age. Even relatively small tweaks to one or more of these default choices could potentially boost a pension pot by thousands of pounds.

 

Here to support you

The evidence clearly shows that formulating a plan is the key to boosting confidence in your financial future. So, let’s kick off 2024 on a positive footing ‒ get in touch and we’ll help you develop a plan capable of securing the rewarding retirement you deserve.

 

9Nucleus Financial Platforms, 2023

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

 

 

Prospects of stronger economic growth

 

As we enter a new year, the global economy sits in a relatively precarious position, with the long-term consequences of the pandemic, as well as ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions all hindering growth prospects. While such times can appear daunting for investors, the key to successful investing actually remains the same: focus on long-term goals and mitigate potential risks by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio.

 

Global recovery remains slow

In its latest assessment of economic prospects, produced just before the Middle East conflict began, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dampened its baseline global growth forecast for the coming year. The international soothsayer is now predicting growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024; all three figures are below the long-term average global growth rate of 3.8%.

 

Challenges ahead but growth prospects

The IMF noted that the current weak growth outlook allied with heightened uncertainty, still-elevated global inflation and limited fiscal space, do pose a series of challenges for policymakers. However, the report also highlighted some more upbeat aspects including disinflation, rebuilt buffers to help manage future shocks and the prospect of stronger, more balanced growth.

 

Diversification is key

In the current economic climate, strong research capabilities are clearly vital and that is our strength. It enables us to formulate and develop an effective investment plan tailored specifically to your needs, and helps us ensure you continue to hold a well-diversified, balanced portfolio firmly aligned to your long-term financial objectives.

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

 

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this newsletter is based on our current understanding of taxation and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases

of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

 

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Taxation depends on individual circumstances as well as tax law and HMRC practice which can change.

 

The information contained within this newsletter is for information only purposes and does not constitute financial advice. The purpose of this newsletter is to provide technical and general guidance and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation or advice.

 

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate advice on deposit accounts and some forms of tax advice.

 

All details are correct at time of writing – December 2023.

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Review October 2023 – Inflation rate holds steady

Economic Review October 2023 – Inflation rate holds steady

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Download your copy here

 

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor has described the latest batch of inflation statistics as “quite encouraging,” adding that he expects a “noticeable drop” in the headline rate when the next set of data is released later this month.

 

Figures recently published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – held steady at 6.7% in September. This ended a run of three consecutive monthly declines and came in slightly ahead of analysts expectations’ of a further 0.1% fall.

 

ONS pointed out that the figures did include the first monthly decline in food price levels for two years. However, a sharp rise in fuel costs between August and September was the main factor that prevented the CPI annual rate from declining again. Despite remaining unchanged, though, September’s update does leave CPI below the level forecast by the BoE in early August.

 

The latest release did also report a fall in core inflation, which excludes volatile elements such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, although this decrease was again less than economists had predicted. This measure of inflation, which is typically viewed as a better guide to longer-term price trends, fell to 6.1% in September from 6.2% in August.

 

Commenting on the consumer prices data release in an interview with the Belfast Telegraph, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, “It was not far off what we were expecting. Core inflation fell slightly from what we were expecting and that’s quite encouraging.” The Governor also stressed that he expects to see a “noticeable drop” in the CPI rate when the next set of figures are published in mid-November as last year’s sharp hike in energy prices drops out of the annual comparison.

 

 

Economy stages partial rebound

 

Growth statistics released last month by ONS showed the UK economy returned to growth in August following a sharp decline in July, although forward-looking indicators continue to suggest the outlook remains uncertain.

 

According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the UK economy grew by 0.2% in August following a downwardly revised fall of 0.6% in July. ONS said August’s modest bounce back was partly driven by the education sector, which recovered from two days of industrial action the previous month, along with a boost from computer programmers and engineers.

 

While analysts typically described the latest GDP data as ‘lacklustre,’ August’s figures are thought to have reduced the possibility of a recession beginning as early as the July to September period. Indeed, ONS noted that the economy would only need to have grown by 0.2% during September to avoid it contracting across the third quarter as a whole.

 

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index released towards the end of last month, however, does suggest that business activity across the private sector continues to weaken. The preliminary composite headline Index stood at 48.6 in October, a marginal increase from September’s figure of 48.5, but below the 50 threshold that denotes a contraction in private sector output for the third month running.

 

Commenting on the survey’s findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The UK economy continued to skirt with recession in October, as the increased cost of living, higher interest rates and falling exports were widely blamed on a third month of falling output. The overall pace of decline remains only modest, but gloom about the outlook has intensified in the uncertain economic climate, boding ill for output in the coming months. A recession, albeit only mild at present, cannot be ruled out.”

 

 

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

 

As October drew to a close, investors focused on major central bank meetings with the Bank of England and Federal Reserve due to meet in early November.

 

In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed October on 7,321.72, a loss of 3.76%. At month end losses in some mining and energy stocks weighed, impacted by declines in commodity prices following weaker-than-expected factory activity data in China. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 closed down 6.54% on 17,083.05, while the FTSE AIM closed the month on 679.85, a loss of 6.38%. On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 ended October on 4,061.12, a loss of 2.72%.

 

At month end, Asian equities struggled as disappointing activity data from China reignited some concerns over the resilience of the world’s second largest economy. In Japan the Nikkei 225 closed the month on 30,858.85, down 3.14%.

 

A raft of new data has highlighted resilience in the US economy. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched as an indicator of how long interest rates are likely to remain elevated. The Dow Jones Index closed the month down 1.36% on 33,052.87, while the NASDAQ closed the month down 2.78% on 12,851.24.

 

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.14 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.21 against sterling and at $1.05 against the euro.

 

Safe haven demand as a result of the Middle Eastern conflict saw gold prices trading higher in the month. Gold closed October trading at around $1,996 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of around 6.76%. With traders wary of any new developments in the conflict and concerns over slowing fuel demand in China weighing, Brent crude closed the month trading at around $85, a loss over the month of 7.41%.

 

 

Index                                                  Value (31/10/23)                           Movement since 29/09/23

 

FTSE 100                                            7,321.72                                                           -3.76%                               

FTSE 250                                           17,083.05                                                         -6.54%                               

FTSE AIM                                          679.85                                                               -6.38%

Euro Stoxx 50                                  4,061.12                                                           -2.72%

NASDAQ Composite                      12,851.24                                                         -2.78%                               

Dow Jones                                        33,052.87                                                         -1.36% 

Nikkei 225                                        30,858.85                                                         -3.14%

 

 

Jobs market continues to cool

 

Last month’s release of labour market statistics suggests there has been a further softening in the UK jobs market, although earnings data did reveal average pay is now rising above inflation for the first time in almost two years.

 

The latest figures released by ONS were dubbed ‘experimental estimates’ produced under a new calculation that attempts to account for low response rates to the labour force survey. The new data showed that, although the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.2% during the June to August period, the overall level of employment fell and the rate of economic inactivity rose.

 

In addition, the estimated total number of job vacancies dropped by 43,000 during the three months to September, the 15th consecutive reported decline. This reduced the number of vacancies to a two-year low of 988,000, although this figure is still significantly above pre-pandemic vacancy levels recorded in early 2020.

 

The latest earnings figures also revealed that regular pay rose at an annual rate of 7.8% in the June to August period, higher than the average inflation rate over the same three months. Furthermore, data revisions meant that wage growth actually outpaced inflation in the three months to July for the first time since October 2021.

 

 

 

Retail sales in autumnal fall

 

Official retail sales statistics reported a sharper than expected decline in sales volumes during September, while more recent survey evidence suggests the current trading environment remains extremely challenging.

 

Data published last month by ONS revealed that total retail sales volumes fell by 0.9% in September, a much larger decline than the 0.2% fall predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. ONS said it had been ‘a poor month for clothing stores’ with the unseasonable warm autumnal conditions reducing sales of colder weather gear, while the quick pace of price rises had deterred shoppers from buying ‘non-essential goods.’

 

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests sales remained weak last month, with retailers reporting the joint-worst level of sales volumes for October since records began in 1983. The survey also found that retailers do not anticipate a turnaround in fortunes this month, with cost-of-living concerns and higher interest rates expected to continue weighing on consumer spending.

 

Commenting on the findings, CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said, “As the festive period approaches, the retail sector remains in a perilous position. While slowing inflation should help to bolster households’ income in the coming months, retailers will continue to face headwinds from higher energy and borrowing costs.” 

 

 

 

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 November 2023 )

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

 

 

 

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Your Finance Matters Winter 2023

Your Finance Matters Winter 2023

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You can download this update here

Investment focus for the new year

By any comparison, the past 12 months have been tough for investors with a series of shocks impacting markets and, as 2023 dawns, uncertainties remain. One constant on the investment horizon, though, is the requirement to be strategic with your portfolio. A sound strategy based on careful planning; making purposeful decisions, based on thorough research and reliable processes, will stand you in good stead.

Last year saw markets struggle with bouts of volatility as a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine brought about challenging headwinds and markets sought a stable footing. As a result, fund inflows slowed while cash as a percentage of investors’ portfolios rose, prompting warnings that investors need to be aware of limitations to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) for cash balances.

Identifying opportunities

With large amounts of money on the sidelines, using our knowledge, we aim to identify opportunities and position portfolios to benefit from recession-resistant companies in which we have conviction. Those who still have the capacity to invest should consider adding back to their portfolios in order to take advantage of any potential low valuations.

Battling inflation

Investors also need to be aware of the erosive impact of inflation on cash-based savings. In the current economic climate, anyone holding a significant proportion of their assets in cash, even with savings rates improving, will inevitably see the value of their wealth decline in real terms. In essence, equities offer a better potential defence in the battle with inflation.

Trust in our process

Experienced investor or not, staying calm during periods of market turmoil is never easy but adapting your mindset and focusing on investment strategy rather than market sentiment is vital. Investing in the stock market does clearly involve a level of risk but the adoption of a carefully considered strategy based on sound financial planning principles undoubtedly offers investors the best chance of success.

Tax year end reminder

As the end of the tax year approaches, a prime consideration should be how external factors such as reduced or frozen allowances, together with high inflation, could impact your finances and what action you need to take before 5 April 2023.

If you are affected by the impending changes to Dividend Tax or Capital Gains Tax (CGT) announced in the Autumn Statement, have you considered investing up to £20,000 this tax year in a stocks and shares Individual Savings Account (ISA)? From April 2023, the Dividend Allowance will be cut from £2,000 to £1,000 and then fall further to £500 from April 2024.

In addition, the annual CGT exemption will fall from £12,300 to £6,000 next tax year and then to £3,000 the following tax year. Dividends received on shares within an ISA are tax free and won’t impact your Dividend Allowance. Also, any profit you make when selling investments in your stocks and shares ISA is free of CGT.

And don’t forget your pension

Both the Annual Allowance and Lifetime Allowance are frozen, at £40,000 and £1,073,100 respectively. As these allowances haven’t increased with inflation, it effectively means those saving to the maximum extent possible with tax concessions can save less in real terms each year.

In the news

Women hold their nerve

Recent research1 reveals women are more likely to hold their nerve and avoid crystallising a loss when the market dips. Almost half of men (48%) have sold investments at a loss when they’ve dropped in value, in an attempt to stem their losses, while just 38% of women have done the same. Such impatience could prove to be costly. The research estimates (based on £10,000 invested in 1992, adding 10% of average salary and reinvesting dividends until 2022) that the real cost of ‘impatient’ investing over 30 years could amount to nearly £200,000!

Where is the best place to retire?

Retiring abroad is a much-desired goal for many, particularly for an improved lifestyle. Croatia currently tops the list of the best countries to retire in, due to a better cost of living when compared with the UK – rent costs and the price of day-to-day living is nearly half that versus the UK2.

Croatia also scores highly due to the ease of getting there from the UK, with relatively cheap average flight costs meaning that friends and family can visit and flying back to the UK is also convenient. (Relocation to some countries may mean forgoing future annual increases to State Pension.)

1Alliance Trust, 2022

2Penfold, 2022

Global economic growth in 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)3 has predicted a challenging 2023, reducing growth expectations and forecasting economic contraction in a third of the world, in its latest World Economic Outlook entitled ‘Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis.’

With the cost-of-living crisis ‘tightening financial conditions in most regions’, the outlook suggests that in order to restore price stability, monetary policy should stay the course and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate pressures ‘while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance.’

The global growth rate for 2023 has been revised down from previous expectations to 2.7%. This reflects ‘significant slowdowns’ for the largest economies as America’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first half of 2022, followed by the Euro area’s contraction in the second half of last year, and prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China. Closer to home, the IMF predict growth of 3.6% in 2022 and 0.3% in 2023 for the UK.

3IMF, 2022

Dividend update

According to the latest Dividend Monitor4, driven by sterling weakness, 2022 headline payouts are expected to rise to £97.4bn, up 11.0% on an adjusted basis, with underlying dividends expected to rise 13.4% to £87.2bn. The provisional forecast for UK dividends in 2023 anticipates a slight drop in headline dividends but modest underlying growth.

Looking ahead, Ian Stokes, Managing Director of Corporate Markets UK and Europe at Link Group commented, “For 2023, we expect a further reduction in mining dividends and likely lower one-off special dividends but outside the mining sector there is still room for payouts to rise, even with a weakening economy. Our provisional 2023 forecast suggests a slight drop in headline dividends to £96bn and a slight increase in the underlying total to £89bn. This implies no change in our expectation that UK payouts will only regain their pre-pandemic highs some time in 2025.”

4Link Group, 2022

Giving your children a helping hand

With the current generation of graduates typically leaving university with a mountain of debt, it is perhaps unsurprising that so many parents are now looking to ease the burden by investing on their children’s behalf.

University challenge

Government statistics show the average debt accumulated by a university student is currently around £45,000. Thankfully, graduates only start repayments when their earnings hit a certain threshold and, at the moment, loans are written off after 30 years however much debt remains. As a result, some students will never pay back their loans in full.

Increasing debt burden

Many students, though, do repay a significant amount of their debt, and recent reforms to the loans system means many more will do so in the future – government forecasts suggest that, from next year, over half of students will repay their loans in full. This inevitably places an even greater burden on future graduates’ shoulders, both as they enter the world of work and, potentially, throughout their entire careers.

Saving for their future

Most parents are keen to help their children fund university and many do so by investing on their behalf through a stocks and shares Junior ISA (JISA). While there are risks with stock market investments, historically they have performed better than cash-based savings and consistently delivered above-inflation returns. The annual JISA allowance is currently £9,000 per child which, for anyone who starts saving early, can grow to a sizeable tax-free lump sum. Smaller amounts can mount up too, particularly when combined with contributions from other family members.

Peace of mind

Investing on a child’s behalf can make a huge difference to their future, whether they decide to go to university or put the money towards something else. It also provides parents with the comfort of knowing they are giving their children the best possible start to adult life.

Take control now to beat the tax chill

Following his controversial ‘stealth tax’ Statement in November, the Chancellor made a raft of key personal taxation and pension announcements.

The government pledged its commitment to the pensions Triple Lock, which will increase the State Pension in line with September’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rate of 10.1%. This means that the value of the basic State Pension will increase in April 2023 from £141.85 per week to £156.20 per week, while the full new State Pension will rise from £185.15 to £203.85 per week.

Then came some ‘stealth’ announcements set to pull people into paying higher rates of tax, more people paying IHT, a cut to tax-free earnings from dividends and a reduction in CGT allowances.

In addition to the Dividend Allowance and CGT allowance reductions (as per ‘Tax year end reminder’ article) and IHT freeze (see page 4), other key personal tax announcements from the Scottish

Budget included:

  • The Income Tax additional rate threshold (ART) at which 45p becomes payable will be lowered from £150,000 to £125,140 from 6 April 2023. The ART for non-savings and non-dividend income will apply to taxpayers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The ART for savings and dividend income will apply UK-wide. This move is set to push 250,000 more people into this band
  • The Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold are to remain at current levels – £12,570 and £50,270 respectively – until April 2028 (rates and thresholds may differ for taxpayers in parts of the UK where Income Tax is devolved).

With an increasing number of people likely to be impacted by these changes, we can’t stress enough the importance of tax year end planning. Although some of these changes don’t come in with immediate effect, it is vital to ensure you are in the best place possible to take advantage of any allowances, exemptions and reliefs available this year and to prepare for the changes that come in over the next few years. With plenty to consider and factor into your financial plan, valuable financial advice remains central to achieving your goals and aspirations.

It pays to think about estate planning

Inheritance Tax (IHT) is once again in the spotlight following the Chancellor’s decision to freeze IHT thresholds for a further two years until April 2028. Extending the frozen thresholds, together with rising house prices and soaring inflation mean that more estates are likely to be affected.

IHT receipts on an upwards trend

The latest IHT figures released in October make interesting reading. Total HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) receipts for April 2022 to September 2022 were £3.5bn, £0.4bn higher than in the same period last year.

Not just a tax on the very wealthy

IHT is a tax payable on all your assets when you die and potentially on some gifts you make during your lifetime. If the estate is liable for IHT, it is usually payable at 40%. These days, you don’t have to be hugely wealthy to be affected by IHT – the hated tax can cost your estate thousands of pounds when you die.

A reminder of the thresholds

An individual’s current threshold, or nil-rate band, is £325,000. A couple (married or civil partners) has £650,000. Any unused nil-rate band can be passed to the surviving spouse or civil partner on death.

In 2017 the government introduced an additional nil-rate band when a residence is passed on death to a direct descendant. The main residence nil-rate band is £175,000 and when added to the existing threshold of £325,000 could potentially give an overall allowance for individuals of £500,000.

To reduce the amount of IHT payable, many families consider giving assets away during their lifetime. Some gifts will be automatically free from IHT; for example, £3,000 each financial year, certain wedding gifts and gifts to charities.

Getting the right balance between gifting money during your lifetime and ensuring you have enough for your future years requires careful planning. Expert planning can legitimately mitigate IHT, meaning you can pass on assets to your family as you’d intended.

Time for a retirement reboot?

Nowadays there are more choices open to you than ever before. This means there are more things you need to consider and have a plan for, like how to manage your finances to provide the income you’ll need to live on, how you’ll transition into full retirement and what lifestyle you want to enjoy in your later years.

We’re all leading busy lives and with cost-of-living financial pressures intensifying, it’s understandable if retirement plans have been placed on the back burner. If you are keen to revisit your plans and get them back on track so you can relax and fully enjoy your retirement years, the new year is the perfect time to act, so please do get in touch.

 

If you would like advice or information on any of the areas highlighted in this newsletter, please get in touch, we’d be delighted to help you consider your personal financial circumstances.

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this newsletter is based on our current understanding of taxation and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details.

We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Taxation depends on individual circumstances as well as tax law and HMRC practice which can change.

The information contained within this newsletter is for information only purposes and does not constitute financial advice. The purpose of this newsletter is to provide technical and general guidance and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation or advice.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) does not regulate Will writing, tax and trust advice and certain forms of estate planning.

All details are correct at time of writing – December 2022.

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Your financial resolutions for 2023

Your financial resolutions for 2023

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Have you resolved that 2023 is the year you get your financial situation organised? You may have been thinking about reviewing your pension? Or checking if you are making the most from your investments? Maybe 2023 is the year you will retire and make a start on all those big adventures you have been looking forward to.

Whatever your financial resolutions for this new year, we can help you achieve them.

Reviewing your pension

If you are running a successful business, your pension contributions should form part of your financial planning for the business. But maybe you have made changes to your business recently and you need to reassess your pension arrangements. Or perhaps your business is relatively new and you haven’t thought about your pension since leaving your corporate role. The sooner you start, the more you can save before you retire.

If you have a personal pension that you haven’t looked at for a while, it would almost certainly benefit from an independent review and potentially making changes to the investment funds.

Planning your retirement

If 2023 is your planned retirement year (lucky you!) we can help you decide what to do with your pension pot. Since pension freedoms, which give you the flexibility to withdraw income in a way you choose, the need for advice is paramount.  We can help you decide on the most appropriate course of action and draw income in the most tax efficient way.

Maybe you want to phase out of running your business and into retirement and you want some help to plan that handover successfully. We have worked with very many retiring entrepreneurs to help them take those steps into a prosperous retirement while ensuring that their business continues to run successfully.

 

I want to invest for the future

Maybe 2022 was the year you became a parent, or a grandparent and want to start a fund to help them in the future. Maybe you have inherited a significant amount and are wondering how best to invest it. Perhaps you are just looking at your bank account and wondering how to make your money work a little harder. There is a staggering array of savings and investment products on the market, and we can help tailor investments to your own needs.

Can I do good with my money?

In 2022 we made the decision as a business to focus on values led investments. With every new client when we research suitable investments for them, our focus is on sustainable investments (find out more here). We will explain these funds clearly to you when we present our recommendations, and are always happy to explain any aspect of the fund and their features. If you would like your investments to make a wider impact, we’d be delighted to explore this with you.

Whatever your financial goal we are best placed to give you totally independent advice which focusses on you and your needs. Take a look at the comments of our clients and let us see if we can help you.

Get in touch

We can help you keep your 2023 financial resolutions. Book an appointment by calling us on 01332 913006

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

‘Tis the season to give gifts to your grandchildren

‘Tis the season to give gifts to your grandchildren

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If you are a grandparent, you are no doubt thinking about buying Christmas presents. Maybe your grandchildren have provided you with a helpful list. You may want to take the easy option and buy them the latest technology or toy that you know they want.

But maybe you want to think longer term and provide a gift that will benefit them for the future? You may want to enable them to buy their first car, support them through university or help them save for a house deposit. You could simply send them a sum of money, but it’s worth doing a little research before you do. The financial world has a number of ways for you to gift money to your grandchildren in a tax efficient way, either as a one off or over a period of time.

How much can you afford to gift to your grandchildren?

It’s critical to ensure that you have all your own financial needs covered as a priority. Once you have budgeted for your own short term and long term needs, you will arrive at a sum that you are happy to gift.

There are several options available, depending on whether you want to gift a one off sum or set up a more structured arrangement over several years.

One off gifts to reduce inheritance tax

If you are considering a one off gift, you will want to do this in such a way to legitimately minimise the inheritance tax liability for your family.

You may not be aware that you can gift up to £3,000 ‘annual allowance’ to whoever you like, tax-free. This amount won’t be counted as part of your estate for inheritance tax purposes. This could go to your grandchildren as a one off, or it could be something you do in each financial year.

Ways to save in the long term

There are a number of ways to save regularly over a longer term for your grandchildren.

Junior ISAs

These are a very popular product and are easy to add money to at any time.

Only a parent or direct guardian can open a junior ISA and the money is saved in your grandchild’s name. It is important to bear in mind that your money is locked away until they turn 18 – no one can access it, including you and your grandchild’s parents. However, anyone can pay into these accounts, up to a maximum of £9,000 each year. This is a very tax efficient way to save. Remember that the value of a Junior ISA or pension can fall as well as rise

Junior Pensions

You can open a Junior Self-Invested Personal Pension as soon as your grandchild is born. It’s protected from income tax and is usually exempt from inheritance tax, too.

Your grandchild won’t be able to access their pension pot until they are 10 years below the state pension age, so this is definitely only a long-term plan. As with the Junior ISA, the value of a pension can fall as well as rise.

Children’s savings accounts

For a more flexible way to save money for your grandchildren, a children’s savings account is an option. The money can be accessed at any time and the interest earned won’t be taxed as long as your grandchild doesn’t have an income of more than £12,570 in 2022/2023. However, interest rates on such accounts can be very low.

As you can see, there are very many ways for you to help your grandchildren financially, depending on your overall aims and financial situation. All of which will help them long after this year’s toys are gathering dust!

If you would like to explore some of these options, we’d love to talk to you about the best way to support your family. Please get in touch for an appointment.

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Your window on wealth Autumn 2022

Your window on wealth Autumn 2022

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Welcome to our quarterly newsletter Your Window on Wealth. If you would like to discuss any of the items in this edition, please call us for an appointment on 01332 913006.

If you would prefer to download this, you can do so here

 

The growing need for intergenerational planning

With the next 30 years set to witness the largest ever intergenerational passing of wealth, the need for inheritance advice has never been greater. Intergenerational planning, however, can also help with more immediate financial needs, particularly when generations work collaboratively to find solutions that support the whole family both now and in the future.

Inflation concerns

Currently, financial pressures are proving a key challenge across all generations, especially the impact of soaring energy bills as we move towards the winter period. The cost-of-living squeeze, though, is not only impacting people’s current spending power but also their future decision-making capabilities with regard to key issues such as housing, private education or university.

Balancing current and future needs

This has resulted in families increasingly adopting integrated strategies, especially in relation to gifting, in order to address imminent financial challenges. While reducing future Inheritance Tax liabilities inevitably remains at the heart of intergenerational planning decisions, the growing necessity to balance today’s and tomorrow’s needs is resulting in the focus shifting to support for children and grandchildren now.

Involving the generations

Intergenerational planning tends to be most effective when the process is not just focused on those who currently hold wealth. While funding a comfortable retirement and quality of care for the ‘caretaker’ generations remain fundamental elements of intergenerational planning, delivery of support for the coming generations and ensuring wealth passes efficiently to the right individuals at the right time have become increasingly important dimensions.

More families share an adviser

Greater involvement across multiple generations has also seen sharing a financial adviser become increasingly commonplace. This trend offers significant benefits, particularly when it comes to joining up a whole family’s needs with inheritance and gifting strategies, while treating all family members fairly.

Encouraging conversations

If your family needs help with any aspect of intergenerational planning, then please get in touch. We’ll be happy to assist by encouraging more open financial conversations across the generations.

 

Retirement – where’s your “happy place”?

If you’re in Wiltshire and about to retire, you’re doing it in the right place

This is according to an online search engine that helps retirees and their families find the best retirement communities and care homes. The research found that Google searches for ‘retirement homes in Wiltshire’ have soared by 150% in the last year alone – and for good reason! With its beautiful countryside, historic towns and City of Salisbury, and great investment potential, Wiltshire is an ideal location to live out one’s later years. In close second and third places are Buckinghamshire and Dorset, scoring high on both investment potential and wellbeing.

Reaching your financial happy place

No matter where you’re located, though, the truth remains that you’ll struggle to achieve a happy and fulfilled life in retirement without an adequate level of income. So, how much money do today’s retirees need to live their best life after quitting work? According to a recent survey, the average retired couple spends £2,333 a month (around £28,000 per year) to be ‘comfortable’ – i.e. having enough to cover their basic expenditure requirements in addition to some luxuries such as holidays, hobbies and dining out.

 

Challenging waters ahead

Even experienced investors are likely to find the current investment environment a challenge, particularly when one considers the array of uncertainties in the post-COVID economy which are so fundamentally different to those faced during the last two years. Opportunities, however, are still available to investors who can steer a safe course through choppy waters.

Uncertainty abounds

One look at the latest economic forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gives a strong hint of the challenges that lie ahead. The international soothsayer described the current outlook as ‘gloomy and more uncertain’ as it reduced its global growth forecast to 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023, downgrades of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from April’s predictions.

Risks skewed downwards

The IMF noted several shocks that have hit a world economy already weakened by the pandemic. These include higher-than-expected inflation worldwide which is triggering tighter financial conditions; a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China, and further fallout from the war in Ukraine. It also stressed that risks are ‘overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.’

But opportunities remain

This economic sea-change clearly presents a serious challenge to investors. However, while managing portfolios in a high-inflation environment may require some change in course, there are still opportunities out there.

Help at hand

And of course, we’re always here to help. So, if you want to take stock of your investments, get in touch and we’ll be happy to help steer you through any troubled waters.

 

In the news

Healthy dividends

UK listed companies paid out £37bn in shareholder dividends between April and June, up 38.6% from the same period last year, making Q2 the second largest UK dividend payout on record.

Large one-off special payments were a key driver, but underlying dividends, which exclude these volatile specials, jumped by 27.0% to £32.0bn, boosted by weaker sterling.

The Growth Plan 2022

On 23 September, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng outlined a series of tax cuts and measures. Key personal tax announcements included:

  • A reversal of the National Insurance contribution rise, which came into force in April. The 1.25 percentage point increase will be reversed from 6 November. The planned Health and Social Care Levy which was due to replace the National Insurance rise as a new standalone tax from April 2023 has also been cancelled
  • A reduction in Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) in England and Northern Ireland, raising the residential nil-rate threshold from £125,000 to £250,000, with immediate effect, and First Time Buyers Relief from £300,000 to £425,000. The maximum amount that an individual can pay for a home while remaining eligible for First Time Buyers’ Relief, was increased from £500,000 to £625,000. As SDLT is devolved in Scotland and Wales, the Scottish and Welsh Governments will receive funding through an agreed fiscal framework to allocate as they see fit
  • The basic rate of Income Tax will be cut to 19% in April 2023 – one year earlier than previously planned. At present, people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland pay 20% on annual earnings between £12,571 and £50,270, different rates apply in Scotland
  • The government is reversing the 1.25 percentage point increase in Dividend Tax rates applying UK-wide from 6 April 2023, so the ordinary and upper rates of Dividend Tax will revert to 7.5% and 32.5% respectively.

 

Children’s pensions: Saving for their future

It may be an old adage, but definitely one that remains true – it really never is too early to start a pension. So, if you’re looking to help secure the long-term financial future of your child, or grandchild, saving into a pension on their behalf may be a suitable option worth considering, in addition to provision for earlier decades.

Tax incentives and compound returns

In some ways, saving for a child’s pension when they are so far from retirement can seem odd but it can actually make sound financial sense. Junior pensions can be set up as soon as a child is born and contributions up to £2,880 per annum attract tax relief of 20% from the government. Another benefit of saving at a young age is the power of compounding returns which provide growth on growth across the years.

Small amounts add up

These two factors mean you don’t have to save huge sums to make a big difference; saving little and often really can add up in the long term. Current rules allow savings of up to £2,880 per annum into a child’s pension.

Fulfilling and rewarding

Providing financial security for children, or grandchildren, is a key goal for many and saving on their behalf can therefore be fulfilling for you and rewarding for them. If you’d like to give your loved ones a financial head start, then get in touch.

 

An “epidemic of fraud” impacting young and old

The latest annual fraud report published by UK Finance stresses the need for an urgent response to ‘the epidemic of fraud’ that the UK is currently facing.

The report reveals that £1.3bn was stolen by criminals through authorised and unauthorised fraud in 2021. In total, 56% of UK adults4 have received a suspicious communication or known someone who has in the last year, which equates to an estimated 29.6 million UK adults being affected by scams last year.

Preying on the elderly

Reportedly, scam victims aged over 70 lost about £977m5 in total between April 2019 and 2022. Official figures fail to capture the true extent of such fraud because these crimes remain under-reported, especially among elderly people who live alone.

Cost of living

During the pandemic, criminals exploited victims’ fears over coronavirus. Now, the cost-of-living crisis has become a new line of attack. The UK Finance report showed that authorised push payment (APP) fraud, where victims are tricked into transferring money into scammers’ accounts, leapt by 40% last year. Such techniques are now being used to prey on people’s financial preoccupations.

Tech effect

Everyone, young or old, can be a victim of fraud. Indeed, under-25s are more likely to be defrauded on the phone than older generations. One study found the youngest cohort 75% more likely to have been scammed this way than those over fifty-five.

Scammers are also seeing a growing opportunity in cryptocurrencies, which are not regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. In the year to May 2022, crypto frauds soared 58% to £226m, new research has found.

Don’t suffer in silence

Anyone can be a victim of fraud. We can help you protect your finances.

 

All eyes on COP27

As the world continues to emerge from the pandemic, although other headwinds exist, governments, businesses and the financial world are refocusing on what the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) describe as ‘the greatest threat to the wellbeing of humanity and to the ecosystems on which we depend’ – climate change.

According to the PRI, a United Nations-supported initiative, many are now recognising ‘the enormous opportunity for economic growth and investment returns presented by the transition to net-zero emissions.’ The PRI reflect a firm belief that ‘the financial sector and the investment community will play a central role in the global response to climate change and supporting the transition to a net-zero economy.’

COP27

A year after the United Nations 26th Conference of the Parties, on British shores, the upcoming COP27 climate conference is taking place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt this November. Last year, delegates from almost 200 countries agreed upon the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26, which builds upon targets set out in the Paris Agreement, an international legally binding treaty intended to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Key pledges made by governments last year included commitments to end deforestation, cut global methane emissions and to transition to zero-emission vehicles. Countries were asked to return to this year’s conference with a plan to strengthen their 2030 commitments.

“A decisive decade for climate action”

Mahmoud Mohieldin, the UN climate change high-level champion for Egypt, hopes the 2022 conference will be an important milestone in what he calls “a decisive decade for climate action.” In his view, COP27 should undertake an “urgent, ambitious, impactful, and transformative agenda, guided by a holistic approach to sustainable development,” based upon the principle of equity and informed by science.

“In light of the goals and objectives… we will promote a stronger focus on implementation, transforming commitments into actions and translating the pledges of the summits into solutions in the field,” he continued, “While acknowledging the complexities of the different political, economic and developmental challenges, it is incumbent on us all to raise the threshold of action at COP27.”

Climate change for investors

COP27 will undoubtedly be of interest to investors engaged with climate change, with key announcements potentially impacting their portfolios. Investment decisions have a role to play, and the investment industry continues to play a pivotal role in the global climate transition. One investor initiative – The Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative – has now grown to over 270 investor signatories with over $60trn assets under management – all committed to supporting the goal to reach net zero and investments aligned with net zero emissions.

COP provides an opportunity for institutional investors to consider how they can innovate in developing solutions to solve climate issues and in financing sector transition. PRI deduce that, ‘Investors increasingly recognise the threat posed by climate change to the global economy, and therefore to their ability to meet the needs of their beneficiaries over the decades to come… They understand the imperative to engage with the companies in which they invest, and the policymakers who write the laws, to ensure that both groups respond appropriately to the threats and opportunities involved.’

 

Good to know – IHT share loss relief

In challenging market conditions, it’s likely that some bereft individuals will inherit investments that have fallen in value.

Through IHT share loss relief, people inheriting can be entitled to claim a tax rebate when they sell certain qualifying investments at a loss. Strict rules, criteria and exemptions apply however. For example, to be eligible for the relief, the sale of the qualifying investment (shares listed on a recognised stock exchange excluding AIM, government bonds and/or holdings in investment funds) has to be within 12 months of the date of death. Interestingly, according to recent data, few people reclaim the overpaid tax, with just 1,640 taxpayers a year on average (between 2014 and 2019) applying for refunds.

 

IF YOU WOULD LIKE ADVICE OR INFORMATION ON ANY OF THE AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS NEWSLETTER, PLEASE GET IN TOUCH.

 

All details are correct at time of writing – September 2022.

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Economic Update September: Mini budget edition

Economic Update September: Mini budget edition

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You can read a pdf version of this update here

A day after Bank Rate rose from 1.75% to 2.25%, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his first statement on 23 September, outlining a series of tax cuts and measures aimed at boosting economic activity and growth.

Moving straight to the pressing matter of energy costs, Mr Kwarteng reiterated steps taken to support families and businesses, including the Energy Price Guarantee, the Energy Bill Relief Scheme and the Energy Markets Financing Scheme.

With a keen growth focus, the Chancellor professed, “We need a new approach for a new era,” before announcing a Growth Plan built around three key priorities: reforming the supply-side of the economy, maintaining a responsible approach to public finances and cutting taxes to boost growth. A ‘Medium-Term Fiscal Plan’ will be outlined in the coming months and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will be publishing an economic and fiscal forecast before the end of 2022. In the meantime, the government has set a target of reaching a 2.5% trend growth rate for the UK economy, with a tax simplification theme front and centre. The key announcements were:

National Insurance

A reversal of last April’s National Insurance contribution rise was confirmed by the government on 22 September. The 1.25 percentage point increase will be reversed from 6 November. The planned Health and Social Care Levy, due to replace the National Insurance rise as a new standalone tax from April 2023, has also been cancelled.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)

The Chancellor announced a reduction in SDLT in England and Northern Ireland, raising the residential nil-rate threshold from £125,000 to £250,000, with immediate effect, and First Time Buyers’ Relief from £300,000 to £425,000. He also increased the maximum amount that an individual can pay for a home, while remaining eligible for First Time Buyers’ Relief, from £500,000 to £625,000. As SDLT is devolved in Scotland and Wales, the Scottish and Welsh Governments will receive funding through an agreed fiscal framework to allocate as they see fit.

Income Tax

The basic rate of Income Tax will be cut to 19% in April 2023 – one year earlier than previously planned. At present, people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland pay 20% on annual earnings between £12,571 and £50,270; different rates apply in Scotland. The highest rate of Income Tax (the ‘additional rate’ paid at 45% by those earning over £150,000) will be abolished. From April 2023 there will be a single higher rate of Income Tax of 40%.

Dividend Tax

The government is reversing the 1.25 percentage point increase in Dividend Tax rates applying UK-wide from 6 April 2023, so the ordinary and upper rates of Dividend Tax will revert to 7.5% and 32.5% respectively.

Business measures

  • The planned rise in Corporation Tax to 25% in 2023 will not go ahead; the rate will remain at 19%
  • The Annual Investment Allowance, which is the amount that companies can invest tax free, will be made permanent and remain at £1m
  • The IR35 rule reforms which govern off-payroll working will be repealed from 6 April 2023
  • The government intends to establish new Investment Zones in 38 areas in England, providing businesses with tax incentives and reduced regulation, such as fast-tracked planning applications, to drive growth and encourage investment. There are plans to expand investment zones across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
  • The cap on bankers’ bonuses has been lifted
  • Increasing the generosity and availability of the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS) and Company Share Option Plan (CSOP) from April 2023.

Other announcements included:

  • Bringing forward reform of the pensions regulatory charge cap
  • Alcohol duty rates will be frozen from 1 February 2023
  • Plans to reform the infrastructure planning system and to prioritise 138 key projects
  • Universal Credit rules will be tightened, leading to a reduction in benefits if people don’t fulfil job search commitments
  • VAT-free shopping scheme to be introduced for overseas visitors – currently in consultation
  • Tightening union legislation, implementing Minimum Service Levels for transport services and forcing unions to put pay offers to a vote by their members.

As he left the dispatch box the Chancellor concluded, “Our entire focus is on making Britain more globally competitive… We promised to prioritise growth. We promised a new approach for a new era. We promised to release the enormous potential of this country. Our Growth Plan has delivered all those promises and more. And I commend it to the House.”

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding of taxation and HMRC rules and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

All details are correct at the time of writing (23 September 2022)

Contact us to talk about how this announcement affects your investments

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

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