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Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Autumn Newsletter – 2024

Autumn Newsletter – 2024

Please find below “Your Finance Matters for Autumn 2024”

 

SFFS Your Finance Matters_Autumn 24

Download your copy here.

 

 

Reassuringly for investors, the latest batch of projections from economic soothsayers continues to predict a period of steady, if unspectacular, global growth.

 

The forecasts also highlight a number of economic concerns including ‘sticky’ inflation, large budget deficits and geopolitical uncertainties, which could inevitably create some investment challenges. Growth rates beat expectations Economic growth figures released over the summer generally proved stronger than analysts had expected, particularly in relation to Europe and the US (in Q2). And while economic momentum is expected to soften across the second half of this year, forecasters are still predicting steady rates of growth. The latest figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, forecast global growth of 3.2% for the whole of 2024 with the rate rising slightly to 3.3% next year.

 

Inflation persistency The IMF’s musings were contained in a report entitled ‘The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot,’ which highlighted two prominent near-term risks currently undermining growth prospects. Firstly, the IMF warned that ‘services inflation is holding
up progress on disinflation’ which could result in interest rates remaining ‘higher for even longer.’ Secondly, a deterioration in public finances has left many countries in a position of fiscal vulnerability and this is ‘magnifying economic policy uncertainty.’ Geopolitical uncertainties In what was dubbed ‘the year of the election’, geopolitical uncertainties unsurprisingly continue to be a key concern as well. Indeed, their impact on global growth
prospects can only be expected to rise in the near-term as the US presidential election
looms ever closer. Continuing geopolitical conflicts and the rise in geoeconomic competition is also creating ongoing challenges for the global economy.

 

Elements at play

Economic resilience has flowed through to central bank monetary policy as global institutions have largely adopted a cautious approach. Slower but still positive growth, lower inflation and interest rate reductions are a positive combination for investors. Whatever uncertainties do lie ahead, one investment fundamental remains constant: long-term investors are best served by holding a well-diversified, multiasset portfolio based on sound financial planning principles and thorough research.

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

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Economic Review – September 2024

Economic Review – September 2024

UK economic growth
forecast upgraded

 

SFFS Economic Review_Sep 24

Download your copy here

 

An updated forecast published last month by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests the UK will be the joint-second fastest growing economy among the G7 nations this year.

According to the OECD’s latest projections, the UK economy is set to expand by 1.1% across the whole of 2024, a significant upgrade from the think tank’s previous estimate of 0.4% which was released in May. The new forecast places the UK alongside Canada and France in the G7
rankings, with only the US economy forecast to grow more strongly this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) statistics released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), however, did show that the UK economy unexpectedly failed to grow during July, after also
flatlining in June. Despite the lack of growth across both of these months, ONS did note
that ‘longer term strength in the services sector’ had resulted in some growth across the economy during the three months to July as a whole.

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also suggests growth across the UK private sector has softened more recently, with its preliminary headline indicator standing at 52.9 in September, down from August’s figure of 53.8. This does, however, mean that for the eleventh consecutive month, the Index remained above the 50 threshold that denotes expansion in private sector output.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson acknowledged that the latest data did suggest output growth in both manufacturing and services had moderated last month. He added, “A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter.”

 

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Economic Review – July 2024

Economic Review – July 2024

UK growth stronger than expected

 

SFFS Economic Review_July 24

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Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew faster in May than had been predicted, while survey evidence points to a more recent post-election pick-up in business activity.

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output rose by 0.4% in May, twice the level that had been forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. May’s figure also represented a strong rebound from the zero-growth rate recorded in April, with a broad-based increase in output as the services, manufacturing and construction sectors all posted positive rates of growth.

ONS also noted that growth was relatively strong in the three months to May, with GDP rising by 0.9% in comparison

to the previous three-month period. This represents the UK economy’s fastest rate of growth for more than two years.

Evidence from a closely watched economic survey also suggests private sector output picked up last month following a lull in the run-up to July’s General Election. The preliminary headline growth indicator from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.7 in July, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations and up from a six-month low of 52.3 in June. Manufacturing output

 

was particularly strong, with this sector expanding at its fastest rate in almost two and a half years.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Busi- ness Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI survey data for July signal an encouraging start to the second half of the year, with output, order books and employment all growing at faster rates

amid rebounding business confidence. The first post-election business survey paints

a welcoming picture for the new government, with companies operating across manufacturing and services having gained optimism about the future and reporting a renewed surge in demand.”

 

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Economic Review – June 2024

Economic Review – June 2024

Prospect of rate cut moves closer.

 

SFFS Economic Review_June 24

Download your copy here

 

While last month once again saw the
Bank of England (BoE) leave interest
rates unchanged at a 16-year high, the
minutes to the Bank’s Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) meeting signalled a
notable change in tone and economists
now view a rate cut as the most likely
outcome when the MPC next convenes.

At its latest meeting, which concluded
on 19 June, the MPC voted by a 7–2 majority
to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%. For the
second month running, the two dissenting
voices both called for an immediate
quarter-point reduction while, for the first
time, some other members described their
thinking as being “finely balanced.”
The minutes to the meeting also highlighted
this potentially significant shift in
stance, noting that the MPC will now be
looking at whether ‘the risks from inflation
persistence are receding.’ The minutes
concluded, ‘On that basis, the Committee
will keep under review for how long Bank
Rate should be maintained at its current
level.’

Last month’s inflation statistics published
by the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) prior to the MPC announcement,
revealed that the headline rate has now
returned to its 2% target level for the first
time in almost three years. In a statement
released alongside the MPC decision, BoE
Governor Andrew Bailey described that as
“good news.” He also said that policymakers
need to be sure inflation will remain low
and added, “that’s why we’ve decided to
hold rates for now.”

July’s release of economic data, particularly
in relation to wage growth and
services inflation, is likely to prove pivotal to
the next MPC decision which is due to be
announced on 1 August. A recent Reuters
survey, however, found that a large majority
of economists now expect an imminent
cut, with all but two of the 65 polled predicting
an August rate reduction.

 

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Spring Budget 2024

Spring Budget 2024

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On 6 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt delivered his Spring Budget to the House of Commons declaring it was “a Budget for long-term growth.” The fiscal update included a number of new policy measures, such as a widely-anticipated reduction in National Insurance, abolition of the non-dom tax status and new savings products designed to encourage more people to invest in UK assets. The Chancellor said his policies would help build a “high wage, high skill economy” and deliver “more investment, more jobs, better public services and lower taxes.”

 

OBR forecasts

During his speech, the Chancellor declared that the economy had “turned the corner on inflation” and “will soon turn the corner on growth” as he unveiled the latest economic projections produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). He started by saying that they showed the rate of inflation falling below the Bank of England’s 2% target level in “a few months’ time.” He noted that this was nearly a year earlier than the OBR had forecast in the autumn and said this had not happened “by accident” but was due to “sound money” policies.

 

The Chancellor also noted that the OBR forecast shows the government is on track to meet both its self-imposed fiscal rules which state that underlying debt must be falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) by the fifth year of the forecast and that public sector borrowing must be below 3% of GDP over the same time period. Indeed, in relation to the second rule, Mr Hunt pointed out that borrowing looks set to fall below 3% of GDP by 2025/26 and that by the end of the forecast period it represents the lowest level of annual borrowing since 2001.

In terms of growth, Mr Hunt revealed that the updated OBR projections suggest the UK economy will expand by 0.8% this year, marginally higher than the fiscal watchdog’s autumn forecast. Next year’s growth rate was also revised upwards to 1.9% compared to the 1.4% figure previously predicted.

 

Cost-of-living measures

The Chancellor also announced a series of measures designed to help families deal with cost-of-living pressures. These included: an extension to the Household Support Fund at current levels for a further six months; maintaining the ‘temporary’ 5p cut on fuel duty and freezing it for another 12 months; an extension of the freeze in alcohol duty until February 2025; an extension in the repayment period for new budgeting advance loans from 12 months to 24 months, and abolition of the £90 charge for a debt relief order.

 

Personal taxation, savings and pensions

Following previous changes to National Insurance Contributions (NICs) from January 2024, the government announced further changes to take effect this April:

  • The main rate of employee NICs will be cut by 2p in the pound from 10% to 8%, which, when combined with the 2p cut that took effect in January, is estimated to save the average salaried worker around £900 a year
  • There will be a further 2p cut from the main rate of self-employed NICs on top of the 1p cut announced at the Autumn Statement
  • This means that from 6 April 2024 the main rate of Class 4 NICs for the self-employed will reduce from 9% to 6%. Combined with the abolition of the requirement to pay Class 2 NICs, this will save an average self-employed person around £650 a year.

To remove unfairness in the system, changes to Child Benefit were announced:

  • The Child Benefit system will be based on household rather than individual incomes by April 2026
  • From April 2024 the threshold for the High Income Child Benefit Charge will be raised to £60,000 from £50,000, taking 170,000 families out of paying this charge
  • The rate of the charge will also be halved, so that Child Benefit is not lost in full until an individual earns £80,000 per annum
  • The government estimates that nearly half a million families will gain an average of £1,260 in 2024/25 as a result.

 

The government announced two savings products to encourage UK savings – a new UK Individual Savings Account (ISA) and British Savings Bonds:

  • The new ISA will have a £5,000 annual allowance in addition to the existing ISA allowance and will be a new tax-free product for people to invest in UK-focused assets
  • British Savings Bonds will be delivered through National Savings & Investments (NS&I) in April 2024, offering a guaranteed interest rate, fixed for three years.

 

Expressing concern that, across the pensions industry, investment into UK equities is only around 6%, the Chancellor announced plans to bring forward requirements for Defined Contribution pension funds to publicly disclose the breakdown of their asset allocations, including UK equities, working closely with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to achieve this.

 

The non-dom tax regime, available to some UK residents with permanent domicile overseas, is to be abolished. From April 2025, new arrivals to the UK will not have to pay tax on foreign income and gains for the first four years of their UK residency. After that, they will pay the same tax as other UK residents. Transition arrangements will be allowed for current non-doms.

 

In addition:

  • As previously announced in the Autumn Statement, the government is working to bring forward legislation by the end of the summer to allow people to invest in a diverse range of investment types through their ISAs
  • The existing ISA allowance remains at £20,000 and the JISA (Junior ISA) allowance and Child Trust Fund annual subscription limits remain at £9,000
  • The Dividend Allowance reduces to £500 from April 2024
  • The annual Capital Gains Tax (CGT) exemption reduces to £3,000 from April 2024
  • The standard nil rate Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold for England and Northern Ireland is £250,000 and £425,000 for first-time buyers, remaining in place until 31 March 2025
  • The Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold remain at £12,570 and £50,270 respectively until April 2028 (rates and thresholds may differ for taxpayers in parts of the UK where Income Tax is devolved)
  • There will be a consultation on moving to a residence-based regime for Inheritance Tax (IHT). No changes to IHT will take effect before 6 April 2025 – £325,000 nil-rate band, £175,000 main residence nil-rate band, with taper starting at £2m estate value
  • From 1 April 2024, personal representatives of estates will no longer need to take out commercial loans to pay IHT before applying to obtain a grant on credit from HMRC
  • The State Pension, as previously announced, will go up by 8.5% in April, which means £221.20 a week for the full, new flat-rate State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age after April 2016) and £169.50 a week for the full, old basic State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age before April 2016)
  • The removal of the Lifetime Allowance (LTA) from pensions tax legislation from April
  • As previously announced, the National Living Wage for over-23s – paid by employers – will rise from £10.42 an hour to £11.44 an hour in April.

Business measures

Various business measures announced included the raising of the threshold at which small businesses must register to pay VAT from £85,000 to £90,000 from April 2024. In addition, the Recovery Loan Scheme for small businesses will be extended until March 2026.

 

Property taxation

The Chancellor also announced the government’s plans to make the property tax system fairer, by:

  • Abolishing the Furnished Holiday Lettings tax regime
  • Abolishing Stamp Duty Land Tax Multiple Dwellings Relief from 1 June 2024
  • Reducing the higher rate of CGT on residential properties from 28% to 24%.

Public services

“Good public services need a strong economy to pay for them, but a strong economy also needs good public services.” This is how the Chancellor introduced the government’s “landmark” Public Sector Productivity Plan which, it says, will restart public sector reform and change the Treasury’s traditional approach to public spending.

Our National Health Service is, said Mr Hunt, “rightly the biggest reason most of us are proud to be British.” He announced £3.4bn to modernise NHS IT systems, which is forecast to unlock £35bn of savings by 2030 and boost NHS productivity by almost 2% per year between 2025/26 and 2029/30.

This includes:

  • Modernising NHS IT systems
  • Improvements to the NHS app to allow patients to confirm and modify appointments
  • Piloting the use of AI to automate back-office functions
  • Moving all NHS Trusts to electronic patient records
  • Over 100 upgraded AI-fitted MRI scanners to speed up results for potentially 130,000 patients per year.

 

The Chancellor announced a £2.5bn funding boost for the NHS in 2024/25, allowing the service to continue its focus on reducing waiting times for patients.

Mr Hunt also announced £800m of additional investment to boost productivity across other public services, including:

  • £230m for drones and new technology to free up police officers’ time for frontline work
  • £75m to roll out the Violence Reduction Unit model across England and Wales
  • £170m for the justice system, including £55m for family courts, £100m for prisons and £15m to reduce administrative burdens in the courts
  • £165m to fund additional children’s social care placements
  • An initial commitment of £105m to build new special free schools.

Other key points

  • New duty on vaping products to be introduced from October 2026
  • Tobacco duty will be increased from October 2026
  • Air Passenger Duty adjustments to non-economy class rates from 2025/26
  • Energy Profits Levy one year extension from 1 April 2028 to 2029
  • Boosting local growth through a continuation of the Investment Zones programme
  • £1bn in additional tax relief over the next five years for creative industries
  • Housing investment including £124m at Barking Riverside and £118m to accelerate delivery of the Canary Wharf scheme (including up to 750 homes)
  • £120m for the Green Industries Growth Accelerator (GIGA)
  • £7.4m upskilling fund pilot to help SMEs develop AI skills of the future
  • Extension to Freeport tax reliefs to September 2031
  • Extension to and deepening of devolution in England, including the North East Trailblazer Devolution Deal
  • HMRC to establish an advisory panel to support the administration of the R&D tax reliefs.

 

Closing comments

Jeremy Hunt signed off his Budget saying he was delivering, “A plan to grow the economy, a plan for better public services, a plan to make work pay… Growth up, jobs up and taxes down. I commend this Statement to the House.”

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding of the Budget taxation and HMRC rules and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

All details are believed to be correct at the time of writing (6 March 2024)

 

 

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
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Economic Review – February 2024

Economic Review – February 2024

Survey suggests recession already over

Download your copy here

Official statistics released last month showed the UK economy fell into recession during the second half of last year, although more recent survey data does suggest the recession could already be over.

 

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the economy shrank by a larger than expected 0.3% during the final quarter of last year. This follows a 0.1% contraction between July and September, thereby pushing the UK into a technical recession – defined as two consecutive quarterly falls in GDP.

 

ONS data also revealed the economy experienced little growth across the whole of last year. In total, it grew by just 0.1% over the course of 2023 which, excluding the pandemic years, represents the weakest annual rate of growth since 2009.

 

The start of this year, however, has seen clear signs of a rebound in growth prompting suggestions that the recession may prove short-lived. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, for instance, recently told MPs on the Treasury Committee that the economy is showing “distinct signs of an upturn” and that the recession looks like being the weakest of modern times “by a long way.”

 

Data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also paints a more positive picture reporting strong service sector growth and business optimism at a two-year high. The preliminary headline growth indicator also rose, up from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February, beating analysts’ expectations and pointing to an upturn in economic growth.

 

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The survey data points to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of 0.2-0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, allaying fears that last year’s downturn will have spilled over into 2024 and suggesting that the UK’s ‘recession’ is already over.”

 

 

 

High interest rates ‘under review’

 

 

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) once again kept interest rates at a 16-year high, although policymakers did signal they were open to the possibility of lowering rates for the first time since the pandemic. 

 

On 1 February, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it had voted to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% following its latest deliberations. This decision, however, was not unanimous, with a three-way split emerging on the nine-member panel, two voting to raise rates by 0.25%, one preferring a similar-sized reduction and six opting to leave rates unchanged.

 

This meant the meeting was the first since 2020 when any policymaker had voted to reduce borrowing costs and the minutes also signalled a potential change of course – previous guidance stating that rates could rise again was withdrawn while a concluding sentence stated the MPC ‘will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.’

 

Last month’s release of inflation data also raised hopes that the Bank may begin cutting rates soon. The headline annual CPI rate unexpectedly held firm at 4.0% in January, defying economists’ predictions that it would rise to 4.2%. Indeed, after release of the consumer prices data, investors put a 72% chance of a first interest rate reduction in June, with a 0.25% cut fully priced in for August.

 

While the past few weeks have seen several MPC members suggest there needs to be more evidence of weaker price pressures before rates can be cut, the BoE’s Governor did recently describe market expectations that the Bank would start reducing rates this year as “not unreasonable.” The latest poll conducted by Reuters suggests economists now expect the BoE to begin cutting rates in the third quarter, with a slim majority predicting the first cut will be delivered in August.

 

 

 

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

 

At the end of February, markets closed in mixed territory as investors processed a raft of data including US inflation, jobless claims and UK earnings. 

Across the pond, data released at month end showed US prices increased at the slowest rate in nearly three years, keeping a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the table, while jobless claims rose. The Dow closed February up 2.22% on 38,996.39, with the tech-orientated NASDAQ closing the month up 6.12% on 16,091.92.

 

On home shores, the blue chip FTSE 100 index closed February on 7,630.02, a small loss of 0.01%, meanwhile the FTSE 250 ended the month 1.57% lower on 19,054.87. The FTSE AIM closed on 736.50, a loss of 2.42% in the month.

On the continent, the Euro Stoxx 50 ended February on 4,877.77, 4.93% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 continued its bull run, concluding the month on 39,166.19, a gain of 7.94%. The index ended lower on the last trading day of the month ahead of the release of key US inflation data.

 

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.16 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

 

Brent crude ended the month trading at around $82 a barrel, a gain of 1.61%. The price per barrel has remained relatively stable within a narrow range over the last few weeks. Gold closed February trading around $2,048 a troy ounce, a small loss in the month of 0.25%. The price was supported by a softening in the US core price index at month end.

 

 

Index                                                  Value (29/02/24)                           Movement since 31/01/24

 

FTSE 100                                            7,630.02                                                           -0.01%                               

FTSE 250                                           19,054.87                                                         -1.57%                               

FTSE AIM                                          736.50                                                               -2.42%

Euro Stoxx 50                                  4,877.77                                                           +4.93%

NASDAQ Composite                      16,091.92                                                         +6.12%                

Dow Jones                                        38,996.39                                                         +2.22% 

Nikkei 225                                        39,166.19                                                         +7.94%

 

 

 

Wage growth slows again

 

Earnings statistics published last month showed that nominal pay is now rising at the weakest pace for more than a year with survey data suggesting this decline looks set to continue.

 

According to the latest ONS figures, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 6.2% across the final three months of 2023. Although this figure was slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations, it was notably lower than the 6.7% figure recorded in the three months to November 2023 and represents the slowest rate of increase since the August to October 2022 period.

 

Survey evidence also points to an expected further slowdown in levels of pay growth. Data recently released by XpertHR, for instance, showed that the median basic pay settlement fell to 5.1% in the three months to the end of January; this represents a significant drop from the 6.0% rate recorded during the previous three-month period.

 

In addition, research from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) suggests employers expect to raise basic pay by an average of 4% over the coming year. This is well below the 5% figure reported across 2023 and signals the first drop in this measure for nearly four years.

 

 

 

Retail sales rebound in January

 

The latest batch of retail sales statistics suggest consumers have recovered some of their appetite for spending, with much stronger than expected growth in sales volumes recorded at the start of the new year.

 

According to ONS figures published last month, total retail sales volumes rose by 3.4% in January compared to the previous month. ONS said this growth, which was significantly above the 1.5% consensus forecast predicted in a Reuters poll of economists, was driven by strong supermarket sales and shoppers taking advantage of new year bargains.

 

Commenting on the day the figures were released, British Retail Consortium Director of Insight Kris Hamer called the news “promising.” He also suggested the growth reflected “rising levels of consumer confidence, as well as a boost from the January sales.”

 

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey also painted a more positive picture of the retail sector, with its headline measure of sales volumes in the year to February rising to -7% from -50% in January. This marked the slowest rate of decline in year-on-year sales for ten months. Looking further ahead, however, the survey did strike a note of caution with retailers expecting sales to contract at a slightly faster pace in March.

 

 

 

All details are correct at the time of writing (01 March 2024)

 

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
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