The UK economy grew more strongly than expected in February as ‘preBrexit’ stockpiling provided a boost to the monthly rate of economic growth. Official gross domestic product (GDP) data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the economy expanded by 0.2% in February. While this does represent a relatively modest growth rate by historic standards, the figure was significantly higher than most economists had predicted and has eased potential fears that the UK economy could be set to stall or even contract during the first quarter of the year. A key factor behind this stronger than anticipated performance, however, relates to manufacturers’ stockpiling activity. Although ONS does not collect specific data on this area, it did state that survey evidence suggests some manufacturers changed the timing of their activities as the UK’s original planned departure date for leaving the EU approached, in order to minimise any potential disruption to supply chains in the event of a no-deal Brexit. February’s strong GDP data, therefore, appears to reflect a rush by manufacturers

to meet orders from clients stockpiling essential items ahead of Brexit. This point was further reinforced by the latest Confederation of British Industry (CBI) quarterly survey which showed that, in the three months to April, British factories stockpiled at the fastest pace since records began in the 1950s. Meanwhile, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde has warned that further uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the UK’s future growth prospects. The warning followed the release of the IMF’s latest economic assessment with the new forecast suggesting the UK economy will expand by 1.2% in 2019, down 0.3% from the organisation’s previous prediction published in January.

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future. It is not intended that individual investment decisions should be taken based on this information; we are always ready to discuss your individual requirements. We hope you will find this review to be of interest.

Interest rates remain on hold:

The Bank of England (BoE) has once again left interest rates unchanged while reaffirming its belief that nearterm monetary policy will remain inextricably linked to Brexit. All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to leave rates on hold following their latest meeting on 21 March. This marks the seventh month in a row that rates have remained unchanged since they were raised from 0.5% to 0.75% in August last year.

Are the best things in life really free?

Recent research1 shows that many of life’s most enjoyable events come with a hefty price tag. The research calculates that going to university, buying a house, getting married, having two children and then retiring could, on average, add up to £566,659 over the course of a lifetime. This is a huge sum and illustrates the need for careful planning. Separating ‘wants’ from ‘needs’ Many people believe that the key to meeting financial goals is to identify what is most important to you. For instance, whilst you might want to eat out several times a week; affording a home of your own, or enjoying a comfortable retirement, might mean cutting down on these nights out. The problem is that we can all find ourselves trying to save for multiple goals at once and this can feel like an almost impossible task. This is where taking financial advice can really help. We will be able to assist you in putting together a financial plan that addresses both your short and longer-term financial needs. Getting the savings habit As a starting point, everyone needs to have some money put away for emergencies like an unexpected bill. This means having some cash that can be accessed quickly. Then it makes sense to think about the bigger and more exciting things in life, and have money saved that
steadily builds up for the future. Tax-efficient accounts like ISAs can really help here and you can invest lump sums or make regular monthly contributions. http://sheldonflandersfinancialservices.co.uk/spring-statement/

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future. It is not intended that individual investment decisions should be taken based on this information; we are always ready to discuss your individual requirements. We hope you will find this review to be of interest.

MPs secure no-deal Brexit veto…….

With less than four weeks until Brexit day, parliamentary gridlock means it remains unclear whether the UK will leave the EU as scheduled, or whether the Brexit process will be postponed, or even completed at all. Although the Prime Minister continues to state her commitment to leaving the EU as planned on 29 March, the chances of a delay in the process have increased significantly. Theresa May was once again forced to postpone a Commons vote on her deal, that had been scheduled for 27 February, after failing to secure any major concessions on the backstop from her EU counterparts, and it therefore became apparent that she still did not command sufficient parliamentary support for her deal. The Prime Minister was then forced to accept MPs’ demands for a vote on delaying Brexit if the House of Commons rejects both her deal and no-deal. A second ‘meaningful vote’ on her EU Withdrawal Agreement will now take place by 12 March – just 17 days before the UK’s scheduled EU departure – with a further vote between no-deal or delay following, if the bill is rejected again. Any request from the UK government to delay Brexit would require EU
approval. And it is unclear whether the EU bloc would sanction such a request unless the parliamentary impasse had been broken and a clear path forward had emerged. Meanwhile, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he will now back a second EU referendum. This policy reversal came after his alternative Brexit plan – which focused on the UK joining an EU customs union –once again suffered a Commons defeat. While the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March has certainly diminished, it remains distinctly unclear what the ultimate outcome to the Brexit process will be. At the moment, there appears to be no parliamentary majority for any one course of action and, until one emerges, any outcome would still appear possible.
MPs SFFS Economic Review_Feb 19

“Huge Opportunities Ahead of Us?”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, stood up in Parliament at 12.43pm on Wednesday, 13 March, to deliver his second Spring Statement at an inauspicious time following the House of Commons’ dramatic rejection of the Government’s Brexit deal the previous evening. He commented that: “Last night’s vote leaves a cloud of uncertainty hanging over our economy, and our most urgent task in this House is to lift that uncertainty”. He spoke for 36 minutes before commending the statement to the House.
THE ECONOMY The Chancellor reported the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast for the UK economy. The figures show nine consecutive years of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and forecast that this growth would continue for the next five years. They predict 2019 will see growth of 1.2%, 2020 1.4% and the following three years 1.6%. At the same time, the country’s cyclically adjusted budget deficit is predicted to fall to 1.3% of GDP next year and is estimated to continue to fall to 0.5% by 2023, whilst CPI inflation will remain close to its 2% target for the duration of the forecast period. Borrowing is forecast to fall from £29.3bn in 2019/20, £21.2bn in 2020/21, falling to £13.5bn in 2023/24, its lowest level in 22 years, if achieved. The Chancellor announced it is the Treasury’s policy to continue to take a “balanced approach”, maintaining high public capital investment whilst borrowing and debt fall. He will initiate a threeyear Spending Review to be delivered alongside the Autumn Budget, assuming a Brexit deal is agreed.SFFS Simply Wealth Spring Statement_March 19