The last few months have seen the release of positive economic reports and grounds for optimism remain with regards to future growth rates, certainly in terms of the US economy. However, while no one is currently predicting the onset of a sharp slowdown or recession, there are signs that the global economy may be starting to lose momentum. The OECD* composite leading indicator, which covers advanced economies plus China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa, has been in decline since peaking in January and slipped below trend in both May and June. This led the OECD to concede that its lead indicators are: “pointing tentatively to easing growth momentum”. There are a number of potential issues that could act to restrain the pace of growth across the latter half of the year. Top of the list remains the re-emergence of protectionist policies and the continuing trade tensions between the US and the rest of the world. In addition, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit and the impact of monetary tightening in the form of interest rate rises, also have the potential to precipitate a softening in global growth over the coming months.

Autumn 2018

20 months of negotiations Theresa May finally secured a deal on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU; but whether she has sufficient parliamentary support for her deal remains to be seen. The UK and the EU have now reached agreement on how the Brexit divorce will  work. This deal is contained within a legally- binding 585-page withdrawal agreement that officially sets out the terms of the UK’s departure on 29 March 2019. Included within the agreement are details of the £39bn ‘divorce bill’ and a 21-month transition period following the UK’s departure; future commitments over citizens’ rights, and, controversially, the ‘backstop’ arrangement to ensure the Irish border remains unmanned, if trade talks don’t provide a mutually agreeable solution.

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future. It is not intended that individual investment decisions should be taken based on this information; we are always ready to discuss your individual requirements. We hope you will find this review to be of interest.

Does the Budget signal an end to austerity?

Philip Hammond used his Autumn Budget Statement to declare: “the era of austerity is finally coming to an end”. However, while the Chancellor did certainly loosen the purse strings, his bold pronouncement may be a little premature. Mr Hammond’s Budget Speech delivered on 29 October was designed to change the government’s tone with regards to tax and spending. Specifically, he signalled a tax giveaway by announcing
an increase in the personal allowance threshold to £12,500 and a rise in the higher
rate income tax threshold to £50,000 from April 2019. Both moves are being introduced a year earlier than planned.

To read more please click this link SFFS Economic Review_Oct 18

“A Budget for hardworking families…”

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, delivered a Budget which he declared “shows the British people that their hard work is paying off”. Mr Hammond was under intense pressure to loosen the purse strings. He did announce several new cash injections, while suggesting that “the era of austerity is finally coming to an end”.
OBR FORECASTS The Chancellor began his statement by revealing the latest economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which showed a significant improvement in the public finances. Public borrowing for the current fiscal year was forecast to be £11.6bn lower than predicted in the Spring Statement and is then forecast to fall from £31.8bn in 2019/20 to £19.8bn in 2023-24, which would be its lowest level in more than 20 years. The OBR also raised its economic growth forecast for next year to 1.6% from 1.3%, while the 2020 growth forecast was revised up to 1.4% from 1.3%. Growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were maintained at 1.4% and 1.5% respectively, and a new forecast of 1.6% was unveiled for 2023.

Our monthly economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future. It is not intended that individual investment decisions should be taken based on this information; we are always ready to discuss your individual requirements. We hope you will find this review to be of interest….

Growth picks up but Brexit fears loom large….

Although the UK economy recently recorded its fastest rate of growth in almost a year, Brexit-related uncertainties continue to cast a shadow over future growth prospects. Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that gross domestic product rose by 0.6% during the May–July period boosted by an increase in consumer spending thanks to the unusually hot weather and England’s strong World Cup performance. This was the highest growth rate since August 2017 and marks a distinct pick-up compared to the 0.4% figure posted in the three months to June.

SFFS Economic Review_Sep 18 (003)