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Our Monthly Economic Review – January

Our Monthly Economic Review – January

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Our economic review is intended to provide background to recent developments in investment markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future. It is not intended that individual investment decisions should be taken based on this information; we are always ready to discuss your individual requirements. We hope you will find this review to be of interest.

Economy regains pre-pandemic size.

The UK economy grew strongly in November to move beyond its preCOVID level with increasing momentum recorded across all industry sectors prior to the arrival of the Omicron variant. Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the economy grew by 0.9% in November. This was much stronger than the consensus forecast predicted in a Reuters poll of economists and saw the UK economy finally recover all of the ground lost during the pandemic, with November’s output figure 0.7% above its February 2020 level. Commenting on the figures, ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said, “The economy grew strongly in the month before Omicron struck, with architects, retailers, couriers and accountants having a bumper month. Construction also recovered from several weak months as many raw materials became easier to get hold of.” Economic activity over the last two months, however, has clearly been hit by the spread of the Omicron variant. Data from IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported a sharp slowdown in UK private sector growth in December and activity slipped further in January as Omicron again hit consumerfacing companies. Disruption due to the rise in virus cases also contributed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its 2022 global growth forecast. In its latest economic musings released on 25 January, the international soothsayer noted that the world economy was in a ‘weaker position’ than previously expected and downgraded its prediction for global growth by half a percentage point to 4.4%. SFFS Economic Review_Jan 22

 

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Our Monthly Review: December 2021

Our Monthly Review: December 2021

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Bank sanctions December rate rise

 

The Bank of England (BoE) sanctioned a 15-basis-point increase in its main interest rate on 16 December and warned that inflation is now likely to hit 6% by spring.

 

At its latest meeting held in mid-December, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted by an 8-1 majority to raise Bank Rate to 0.25% from its previous historic low of 0.1%. This was the Bank’s first rate hike in more than three years and resulted in the BoE becoming the world’s first major central bank to raise rates since the onset of the pandemic.

 

The announcement was made a day after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest inflation data, which showed the cost of living is now rising at its fastest rate for 10 years. In the 12 months to November, the rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), surged to 5.1%. This was significantly higher than October’s 4.2% figure and above all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.

 

Speaking after announcing the rate hike, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that an outlook for “more persistent inflation pressures” had forced the Bank to act. Mr Bailey said, “We’re concerned about inflation in the medium term and we’re seeing things now that can threaten that. So that’s why we have to act.” 

 

The Governor also revealed that the Bank now expects the CPI inflation rate to peak at around 6% in April, which would be three times above the BoE target figure. Although the rate is then expected to fall back across the second half of 2022, the Bank acknowledged that more “modest tightening of monetary policy” over the three-year forecast period “is likely to be necessary” in order to ensure inflation sustainably returns to its 2% target level.

SFFS Economic Review_Dec 21

 

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SFFS November Review

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Official statistics show the UK headline
rate of inflation now stands at a 10-year
high, with surveys pointing to further
upward pressure as firms continue to
report rapidly-rising cost burdens.
Data released last month by the
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
revealed that the Consumer Prices Index
(CPI) 12-month rate – which compares
prices in the current month with the
same period a year earlier – rose to 4.2%
in October. This was above all predictions
in a Reuters poll of economists and
represents a considerable jump from
September’s rate of 3.1%.
The rise was largely driven by higher
household energy bills following the
lifting of the regulatory price cap on 1
October, with gas prices paid by consumers
up 28.1% and electricity up 18.8%
in the year to October. ONS said price
rises were evident across the board with
the cost of petrol, second-hand cars, furniture
and household goods, hotel stays
and eating out all increasing noticeably.
Some of the current increase in the
rate of inflation is inevitably due to weak
price levels witnessed in October last
year when the pandemic was dragging
down economic activity. Analysts do
expect to see inflation ease somewhat
next year as these factors begin to drop
out of the data.
Survey evidence, though, suggests
there are further inflationary pressures
in the pipeline. Preliminary data from
November’s IHS Markit/CIPS Composite
Purchasing Managers’ Index, for
instance, revealed record cost pressures,
with input price inflation ‘rising at
the fastest rate since the index began
in 1998’, fuelled by ‘higher wages and a
spike in prices paid for fuel, energy and
raw materials.’
November’s Monthly Industrial Trends
Survey published by the Confederation
of British Industry (CBI) also highlighted
the current inflationary pressures; output
price expectations among manufacturers
climbed to the highest level since
May 1977.SFFS Economic Review_Nov 21

 

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Economic Review – September 2021

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS)
has revised UK economic growth for Q2
2021 to 5.5% from an original estimate
of 4.8%. The UK’s level of GDP is now
3.3% below where it was pre-pandemic
in Q4 2019, revised from the previous
estimate of 4.4% below.
Other ONS data indicates a loss
of momentum more recently, with
the economy growing by 0.1% in July.
Although this represents a sixth successive
month of growth, the figure was
lower than June’s 1.4% rise and below
the 0.6% average forecast predicted in a
Reuters poll of economists.
July’s slowdown partly reflects an
upsurge in COVID cases and the resulting
‘pingdemic’, with ONS saying some
businesses complained of staff being
unable to attend work due to self-isolation
requirements. Additionally, analysts
said the slowdown highlighted the
impact of supply chain disruptions.
More recent survey data also shows
supply chain issues continue to weigh on
the recovery. The closely watched IHS
Markit/CIPS flash composite Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI), for instance, fell
from 54.8 in August to 54.1 in September.
While any reading above 50 does
still imply growth, this was a fourth
consecutive monthly decline, signalling
a loss of momentum across the UK
private sector.
IHS Markit’s Chief Business Economist
Chris Williamson said, “The survey also
points to business activity being increasingly
constrained by shortages of materials
and labour, most notably in the manufacturing
sector but also in some services
firms. A lack of staff and components
were especially widely cited as causing
falls in output within the food, drink and
vehicle manufacturing sectors.”

 

SFFS Economic Review_Sep 21

 

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August Economic Review

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SFFS Economic Review_Aug 21

 

The latest gross domestic product
(GDP) figures showed that the UK
economy grew strongly in the second
quarter, although more recent survey
evidence does suggest the recovery is
losing momentum.
Data published by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) revealed the
economy grew by 4.8% in the second
quarter of this year, fuelled by expansion
in the retail, restaurant and hotel sectors.
Despite this growth, the economy
remains 2.2% smaller than it was immediately
before the pandemic struck,
although analysts do expect it to return
to pre-COVID levels later this year.
Commenting on the figures, Chancellor
Rishi Sunak said, “The economy
is recovering very strongly, exceeding
many people’s expectations. But I’m not
complacent. The economy and our public
finances have experienced a significant
shock. It is going to take us time to
fully recover from that.”
GDP growth in the month of June
alone was estimated to be 1%, slightly
higher than the consensus forecast in a
Reuters poll of economists. More recent
survey evidence, however, suggests
growth may have slowed over the past
couple of months.
The closely watched IHS Markit/CIPS
flash composite Purchasing Managers’
Index, for instance, fell to 55.3 in August
from 59.2 in July. While any value above
50 does still represent growth, this was
the survey’s lowest reading since February,
with respondents widely reporting
constraints on business activity due to
staff shortages and supply chain issues
across both the manufacturing and
service sectors.
Data from two Confederation of
British Industry surveys also suggest
the recovery may be losing momentum.
The latest Industrial Trends Survey
found manufacturing output growth in
the three months to August eased from
the previous month’s record level, amid
the worst stock shortages on record,
while the Service Sector Survey showed
optimism among firms was ‘mixed’ in the
three months to August.

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Simply Biz Summer Update

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As the country emerges from
lockdown, an increasing sense
of optimism seems to have
filled the air with a much more
familiar feel returning this
summer. And there’s plenty
to look forward to over the
coming months, with a host of
major sporting events including
the Olympics to excite and
enthral us, audiences returning
to theatres and concert halls
across the land, and the
rearranged Chelsea Flower
Show set to extend summer into
late September.
Faster recovery predicted
There also appears to be a similar air
of optimism in relation to economic
matters, with data across the first half
of this year proving to be stronger than
analysts had expected. As a result, there
now seems to be a good chance that
major economies on both sides of the
Atlantic will have recovered the lost
ground caused by the pandemic before
the end of 2021.
Global growth forecasts
upgraded
This has led to a string of renowned
international forecasting agencies
upgrading their global growth projections
during the past few months. The
UN’s mid-2021 World Economic Situation
and Prospects Report, for instance,
revealed an annual growth forecast of
5.4% for this year, up significantly from
January’s 4.7% estimate. This brighter
outlook largely reflects the rapid vaccine
rollout in a few large economies,
principally the US and China, as well as
an increase in global trade.
Diverging fortunes
UN economists, however, did warn that
inadequate availability of vaccines in
many countries was threatening a more
broad-based global recovery. The report
did strike a note of caution, suggesting
that, ‘the economic outlook for the countries
in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa
and Latin America and the Caribbean
remains fragile and uncertain.’
Advice remains paramount
While the outlook has certainly improved
significantly across the first half of this
year, the UN forecast reinforces how the
pandemic continues to create a relatively
uncertain economic backdrop. This
inevitably means the provision of expert
advice is a vital component of investor
success. We can help you make the
most of any investment opportunities
that do arise.

 

Simply Biz Summer Update

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

If you want to be financially healthy, please book an initial meeting and let’s discover if we can help you
Call us on 01332913006

 

Simply Wealth July 2021

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The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) has sharply increased this year’s
growth forecast for the UK, although
recent data does suggest the country’s
strong economic rebound has begun to
slow down.
In its latest assessment of global
economic prospects, the IMF highlighted
a worrying divergence in fortunes
between rich and poor nations, due
to differing access to COVID vaccines.
Growth across all wealthy countries
in 2021 is now predicted to be half a
percentage point stronger than the IMF’s
previous forecast published in April,
but a similar-sized downgrade for other
nations means the overall global growth
forecast remains unchanged at 6%.
For the UK, the international soothsayer
is now predicting growth of 7% in
2021 which, together with the US, is the
joint-fastest rate among the G7 major
advanced economies. This represents
a sizeable upgrade from the previous
forecast, which the IMF attributed to
faster growth between February and
April, when the success of the vaccination
rollout and furlough scheme meant
that the UK economy performed better
than had been expected.
More recent data, however, does
suggest UK growth has slowed across
the past few months. The latest gross
domestic product figures released by the
Office for National Statistics (ONS), for
instance, showed the economy expanded
by 0.8% in May. While this was the fourth
successive month of growth, the figure
was significantly lower than April’s 2%
rate and below market expectations.
Furthermore, survey data suggests
the country’s economic rebound slowed
again last month, with the IHS Markit/
CIPS flash composite Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) dropping to 57.7 in
July from 62.2 in June. While any value
over 50 does still represent an acceleration
in output, the latest reading was the
lowest since March and suggests the
rising wave of coronavirus infections and
resulting ‘pingdemic’ has started to stifle
business activity.

 

=Simply Wealthy July 2021

 

 

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Simply Wealth Summer 2021

Simply Wealth Summer 2021

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Reasons to be cheerful
As the country emerges from lockdown, an increasing sense of optimism seems to have filled the air with a much more familiar feel returning this summer.

SFFS Simply Wealth_Summer 21

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

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Economic Review June 2021

Economic Review June 2021

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Following its latest meeting held on 22nd of June, the Monetary Policy committee (MPC) judged that the existing monetary stance remains appropriate, despite inflation rising above the Bank of England’s target level.

SFFS Economic Review_Jun 21

 

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Simply Wealth Update

Simply Wealth Update

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Vaccines put a spring in investors’ step

The arrival of spring is generally a time of great optimism and this year more than ever we are all certainly in need of a fresh bout of positivity. Thankfully for investors, there do seem to be increasingly hopeful signs on the horizon, with a growing belief we are now at least starting on the road to economic recovery.

SFFS Simply Wealth_Spring 21

 

Financial health is financial wealth.

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